---
title: "CIRCUS JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "CIRCUS JOKER ($636.55) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.50% from 44 items with odds, observed 96.50% over 372 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/circus-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:58Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [CIRCUS JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/circus-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · CIRCUS JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/circus-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/circus-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/circus-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/circus-joker?window=all)

Price · $636.55

Advertised RTP · 90.50% · EV $576.08 from 44 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 96.50% · 372 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 77.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 24 openings · below min

7 days · 94.75% ±19.73 348 openings

30 days · 96.50% ±19.09 372 openings

since tracking started · 96.50% ±19.09 372 openings

24.0% 100.0% 176.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/circus-joker?window=24h) | 24 | 99.97% ±75.1 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/circus-joker?window=7d) | 348 | 94.75% ±19.7 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/circus-joker) | 372 | 96.50% ±19.1 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/circus-joker?window=all) | 372 | 96.50% ±19.1 | +0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 44 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 394 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 27 | $5,959 | 38.3% | 16 | 14.6 | 1.10× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) | 1 in 27 | $2,668 | 17.1% | 20 | 14.6 | 1.37× |
| [M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $1,167 | 7.5% | 20 | 14.6 | 1.37× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $1,042 | 6.7% | 10 | 14.6 | 0.69× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $926 | 6.0% | 9 | 14.6 | 0.62× |
| [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $793 | 5.1% | 16 | 14.6 | 1.10× |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $623 | 4.0% | 14 | 14.6 | 0.96× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Minimal Wear) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $502 | 1.6% | 0 | 7.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 27 | $496 | 3.2% | 23 | 14.6 | 1.58× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 27 | $252 | 1.6% | 13 | 14.6 | 0.89× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 27 | $197 | 1.3% | 13 | 14.6 | 0.89× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $196 | 0.6% | 0 | 7.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $160 | 0.5% | 0 | 7.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 27 | $152 | 1.0% | 16 | 14.6 | 1.10× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $149 | 1.0% | 16 | 14.6 | 1.10× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 54 | $139 | 0.4% | 0 | 7.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $88.56 | 0.3% | 0 | 7.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $87.98 | 0.3% | 0 | 7.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $84.34 | 0.3% | 0 | 7.3 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $82.27 | 0.5% | 15 | 14.6 | 1.03× |
| [UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crime-scene-battle-scarred) | 1 in 27 | $79.39 | 0.5% | 8 | 14.6 | 0.55× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $78.31 | 0.3% | 0 | 7.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $68.70 | 0.2% | 0 | 7.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $68.39 | 0.4% | 20 | 14.6 | 1.37× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $55.99 | 0.2% | 0 | 7.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $55.52 | 0.4% | 15 | 14.6 | 1.03× |
| [FAMAS \| Afterimage (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-afterimage-factory-new) | 1 in 54 | $47.89 | 0.2% | 0 | 7.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-factory-new) | 1 in 135 | $38.16 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-black-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 135 | $38.01 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-minimal-wear) | 1 in 108 | $23.61 | 0.0% | 0 | 3.6 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 135 | $22.17 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Afterimage (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-afterimage-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $20.79 | 0.1% | 0 | 7.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-well-worn) | 1 in 108 | $16.38 | 0.0% | 0 | 3.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 108 | $16.28 | 0.0% | 0 | 3.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $15.44 | 0.1% | 8 | 14.6 | 0.55× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-battle-scarred) | 1 in 108 | $15.20 | 0.0% | 0 | 3.6 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-black-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 135 | $14.48 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-black-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 135 | $14.11 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 135 | $13.82 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 135 | $13.04 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) | 1 in 135 | $12.44 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-well-worn) | 1 in 135 | $12.39 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-battle-scarred) | 1 in 135 | $12.12 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $9.38 | 0.1% | 16 | 14.6 | 1.10× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/circus-joker`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $653 $6,177 9.46x 2026-11-05 01:13 UTC

[★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $653 $6,177 9.46x 2026-11-03 23:56 UTC

[★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [BERKAY](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/BERKAY) $653 $6,177 9.46x 2026-11-03 23:55 UTC

[★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $653 $6,177 9.46x 2026-11-03 20:54 UTC

[★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [ziomek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/ziomek) $653 $6,177 9.46x 2026-11-03 20:53 UTC

[★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $648 $6,120 9.44x 2026-11-05 11:50 UTC

[★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $637 $5,959 9.36x 2026-11-10 14:40 UTC

[★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $637 $5,959 9.36x 2026-11-10 12:41 UTC

[★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $638 $5,959 9.34x 2026-11-09 21:31 UTC

[★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $639 $5,837 9.13x 2026-11-05 20:59 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=circus-joker)

[★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $637 $252 0.40x 2026-11-10 20:23 UTC

[AK-47 | Nightwish weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish) Hidden $637 $83.15 0.13x 2026-11-10 20:23 UTC

[AK-47 | Nightwish weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish) Hidden $637 $83.15 0.13x 2026-11-10 20:23 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [LA SEN KİMSUUN !!!](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/LA%20SEN%20K%C4%B0MSUUN%20!!!) $637 $496 0.78x 2026-11-10 20:23 UTC

[M4A1-S | Vaporwave weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave) Hidden $637 $72.27 0.11x 2026-11-10 20:22 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $637 $496 0.78x 2026-11-10 20:22 UTC

[AK-47 | Nightwish weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish) Hidden $637 $83.15 0.13x 2026-11-10 20:22 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) [LA SEN KİMSUUN !!!](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/LA%20SEN%20K%C4%B0MSUUN%20!!!) $637 $2,668 4.19x 2026-11-10 20:22 UTC

[Glock-18 | Shinobu (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-minimal-wear) Hidden $637 $9.38 0.01x 2026-11-10 19:01 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $637 $55.52 0.09x 2026-11-10 19:01 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $637 | 90.50% | 44 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $638 | 90.50% | 44 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $641 | 90.50% | 44 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $635 | 90.50% | 44 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $641 | 90.50% | 44 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $635 | 90.50% | 44 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $639 | 90.50% | 44 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $650 | 90.50% | 44 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $648 | 90.50% | 44 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $653 | 90.50% | 44 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 44.4% extraordinary 3.7% epic 5.6% legendary 1.9% gold 3.7% rare 1.9% red 5.6% violet 3.7% #8847ff 3.7% Covert 3.7% classified 8.5% Classified 0.7% pink 7.4% #d32ee6 1.9% Mythical 3.7% best hit $6,177 (9.46x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.50 on average: an expected loss of $9.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt