---
title: "CIRCUS case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "CIRCUS ($80.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 44 items with odds, observed 89.03% over 3,134 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/circus
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [CIRCUS](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/circus)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · CIRCUS

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/circus?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/circus?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/circus) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/circus?window=all)

Price · $80.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $70.00 from 44 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.03% · 3,134 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 16.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 68.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 91.31% ±13.97 390 openings

7 days · 86.59% ±5.79 2,356 openings

30 days · 89.03% ±5.23 3,134 openings

since tracking started · 89.03% ±5.23 3,134 openings

76.5% 91.3% 106.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/circus?window=24h) | 390 | 91.31% ±14.0 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/circus?window=7d) | 2,356 | 86.59% ±5.79 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/circus) | 3,134 | 89.03% ±5.23 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/circus?window=all) | 3,134 | 89.03% ±5.23 | +0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 44 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,143 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 10,000 | $5,959 | 0.9% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,333 | $2,592 | 1.1% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,667 | $1,167 | 1.0% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.59× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,429 | $1,053 | 1.1% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.91× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,250 | $928 | 1.1% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.80× |
| [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,111 | $793 | 1.0% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.06× |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 833 | $616 | 1.1% | 3 | 3.8 | 0.80× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Minimal Wear) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $563 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 667 | $480 | 1.0% | 5 | 4.7 | 1.06× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 21 | $252 | 17.4% | 105 | 152.1 | 0.69× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 73 | $196 | 3.8% | 0 | 43.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 53 | $194 | 5.2% | 72 | 58.8 | 1.23× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92 | $156 | 2.4% | 0 | 34.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 42 | $152 | 5.2% | 89 | 74.8 | 1.19× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 41 | $150 | 5.2% | 74 | 75.7 | 0.98× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 73 | $139 | 2.7% | 0 | 43.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $88.63 | 3.7% | 0 | 92.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $87.71 | 3.2% | 0 | 79.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $84.62 | 3.6% | 0 | 92.7 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $82.27 | 8.2% | 206 | 218.8 | 0.94× |
| [UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crime-scene-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $79.39 | 4.8% | 162 | 133.9 | 1.21× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $74.10 | 2.4% | 0 | 72.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $65.84 | 4.2% | 122 | 139.5 | 0.87× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $65.44 | 2.3% | 0 | 78.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $59.50 | 3.9% | 155 | 145.5 | 1.07× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $55.66 | 2.3% | 0 | 91.5 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Afterimage (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-afterimage-factory-new) | 1 in 65 | $47.89 | 1.1% | 0 | 48.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-factory-new) | 1 in 238 | $38.48 | 0.2% | 0 | 13.2 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-black-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 189 | $37.67 | 0.3% | 0 | 16.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-minimal-wear) | 1 in 83 | $23.61 | 0.4% | 0 | 37.7 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $22.39 | 0.4% | 0 | 34.6 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Afterimage (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-afterimage-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $21.17 | 1.5% | 0 | 152.4 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-black-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 58 | $16.22 | 0.4% | 0 | 54.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $15.67 | 1.8% | 265 | 248.0 | 1.07× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-well-worn) | 1 in 47 | $15.65 | 0.5% | 0 | 66.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 47 | $15.51 | 0.5% | 0 | 67.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-battle-scarred) | 1 in 44 | $15.02 | 0.5% | 0 | 70.7 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-black-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 49 | $14.44 | 0.4% | 0 | 63.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 56 | $13.65 | 0.4% | 0 | 56.6 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $13.14 | 0.4% | 0 | 72.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $12.75 | 0.4% | 0 | 62.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $12.55 | 0.4% | 0 | 63.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-battle-scarred) | 1 in 48 | $12.34 | 0.4% | 0 | 65.4 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10 | $9.38 | 1.3% | 282 | 299.8 | 0.94× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/circus`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [★jawaan★](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%E2%98%85jawaan%E2%98%85) $80.00 $6,181 77.26x 2026-11-03 21:54 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) [Puzonik](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Puzonik) $80.00 $2,694 33.68x 2026-11-04 20:49 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) [★jawaan★](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%E2%98%85jawaan%E2%98%85) $80.00 $2,694 33.68x 2026-11-04 20:47 UTC

[M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-minimal-wear) Hidden $80.00 $1,167 14.59x 2026-11-10 22:58 UTC

[M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-minimal-wear) [KeevAntonimodeCaTeTo\_lt;3](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/KeevAntonimodeCaTeTo_lt%3B3) $80.00 $1,147 14.33x 2026-11-05 00:31 UTC

[M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-minimal-wear) Hidden $80.00 $1,147 14.33x 2026-11-04 20:46 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $80.00 $1,080 13.50x 2026-11-05 15:18 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) [★jawaan★](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%E2%98%85jawaan%E2%98%85) $80.00 $1,067 13.34x 2026-11-03 21:52 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $80.00 $958 11.97x 2026-11-04 06:56 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $80.00 $947 11.83x 2026-11-06 19:44 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=circus)

[★ Survival Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $80.00 $150 1.87x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC

[AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $80.00 $15.67 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC

[Galil AR | Phoenix Blacklight (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-field-tested) [Witold Pilecki](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Witold%20Pilecki) $80.00 $82.27 1.03x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Black Lotus StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-black-lotus) Hidden $80.00 $17.18 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC

[AK-47 | Nightwish weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish) Hidden $80.00 $82.24 1.03x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC

[M4A4 | Desolate Space weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space) Hidden $80.00 $16.66 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC

[AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-factory-new) [Wuj WodzU](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Wuj%20WodzU) $80.00 $15.67 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC

[M4A4 | Desolate Space weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space) Hidden $80.00 $16.66 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC

[Glock-18 | Shinobu (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-minimal-wear) Hidden $80.00 $9.38 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $80.00 $152 1.90x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $80.00 | 87.50% | 44 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $80.00 | 87.22% | 44 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $80.00 | 87.06% | 44 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $80.00 | 87.40% | 44 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $80.00 | 87.63% | 44 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $80.00 | 87.40% | 44 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $80.00 | 87.30% | 44 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $80.00 | 87.31% | 44 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $80.00 | 87.11% | 44 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $80.00 | 87.40% | 44 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $80.00 | 87.11% | 44 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $80.00 | 86.86% | 44 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $80.00 | 87.77% | 44 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $80.00 | 88.13% | 44 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $80.00 | 87.06% | 44 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $80.00 | 87.06% | 44 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $80.00 | 87.96% | 44 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $80.00 | 87.63% | 44 |
| 3 Nov, 15:55 UTC | $80.00 | 88.02% | 44 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $80.00 | 87.63% | 44 |
| 3 Nov, 09:33 UTC | $80.00 | 88.02% | 44 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $80.00 | 87.63% | 44 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 21.5% extraordinary 0.0% epic 1.4% legendary 0.0% gold 2.4% red 8.8% rare 2.5% violet 7.0% #8847ff 4.3% Covert 4.4% classified 15.8% Classified 0.5% pink 18.5% #d32ee6 4.9% Mythical 7.9% best hit $6,181 (77.26x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt