---
title: "COVERT case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "COVERT ($13.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 72 items with odds, observed 123.95% over 5,590 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/covert
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:17Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [COVERT](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/covert)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · COVERT

A case on Casehug (BY RARITY), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/covert?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/covert?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/covert) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/covert?window=all)

Price · $13.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $11.37 from 72 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 123.95% · 5,590 openings, odds method

Variance · 10.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 25.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 74.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 130.83% ±23.42 746 openings

7 days · 123.01% ±9.91 4,528 openings

30 days · 123.95% ±8.85 5,590 openings

since tracking started · 123.95% ±8.85 5,590 openings

87.0% 121.0% 155.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.64% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (115.10% – 132.80%, 5,590 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/covert?window=24h) | 746 | 130.83% ±23.4 | +3.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/covert?window=7d) | 4,528 | 123.01% ±9.91 | +7.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/covert) | 5,590 | 123.95% ±8.85 | +8.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/covert?window=all) | 5,590 | 123.95% ±8.85 | +8.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 72 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,624 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100,000 | $6,395 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33,333 | $5,630 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $616 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-field-tested) | 1 in 50,000 | $610 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $284 | 0.2% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11,111 | $280 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) | 1 in 33,333 | $256 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-field-tested) | 1 in 4,762 | $242 | 0.4% | 5 | 1.2 | 4.23× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-field-tested) | 1 in 8,333 | $242 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 4,167 | $212 | 0.4% | 7 | 1.3 | 5.19× |
| [FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-roll-cage-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12,500 | $150 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,882 | $148 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [P250 \| See Ya Later (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-factory-new) | 1 in 2,941 | $147 | 0.4% | 4 | 1.9 | 2.09× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 2,857 | $147 | 0.5% | 7 | 2.0 | 3.56× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 5,263 | $139 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11,111 | $137 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-roll-cage-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $135 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-roll-cage-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $134 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 11,111 | $131 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $126 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-factory-new) | 1 in 25,000 | $125 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-well-worn) | 1 in 2,439 | $124 | 0.4% | 11 | 2.3 | 4.77× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $122 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-roll-cage-battle-scarred) | 1 in 8,333 | $122 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| The Kraken (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-the-kraken-factory-new) | 1 in 2,273 | $114 | 0.4% | 5 | 2.5 | 2.02× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 7,692 | $114 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [R8 Revolver \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,222 | $111 | 0.4% | 12 | 2.5 | 4.74× |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,000 | $102 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-field-tested) | 1 in 4,000 | $102 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,263 | $92.38 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,091 | $87.71 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,448 | $84.99 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested) | 1 in 4,348 | $84.20 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $80.83 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-field-tested) | 1 in 3,030 | $79.28 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $75.90 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 1,493 | $74.67 | 0.4% | 17 | 3.8 | 4.51× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-battle-scarred) | 1 in 4,167 | $73.54 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) | 1 in 4,167 | $72.97 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-well-worn) | 1 in 4,167 | $68.38 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 3,846 | $65.44 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 1,299 | $65.16 | 0.4% | 13 | 4.3 | 3.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) | 1 in 2,273 | $62.44 | 0.2% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,167 | $60.74 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,333 | $60.50 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-well-worn) | 1 in 4,348 | $58.63 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 3,448 | $57.05 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,250 | $56.82 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-field-tested) | 1 in 4,000 | $55.66 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 2,222 | $54.96 | 0.2% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,226 | $54.34 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,128 | $53.92 | 0.2% | 0 | 2.6 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-well-worn) | 1 in 2,941 | $52.36 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,333 | $50.97 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-field-tested) | 1 in 134 | $48.67 | 3.2% | 0 | 41.9 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-battle-scarred) | 1 in 123 | $46.62 | 3.3% | 0 | 45.7 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 126 | $42.72 | 3.0% | 0 | 44.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 123 | $42.22 | 3.0% | 0 | 45.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 120 | $41.83 | 3.1% | 0 | 46.7 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-minimal-wear) | 1 in 188 | $40.79 | 1.9% | 0 | 29.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 159 | $40.36 | 2.2% | 0 | 35.4 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-well-worn) | 1 in 164 | $38.10 | 2.0% | 0 | 34.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 140 | $37.90 | 2.4% | 0 | 40.2 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-battle-scarred) | 1 in 146 | $35.89 | 2.2% | 0 | 38.6 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $33.26 | 2.3% | 0 | 44.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 16.4% | $31.55 | 45.4% | 0 | 919.7 | 0.00× |
| [Sticker \| Old School (Lenticular) sticker · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-old-school-lenticular) | 1 in 13 | $6.03 | 4.0% | 732 | 424.6 | 1.72× |
| [Sticker \| TV Installation (Lenticular) sticker · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tv-installation-lenticular) | 1 in 11 | $3.73 | 3.0% | 854 | 514.5 | 1.66× |
| [Sticker \| Freeze (Lenticular) sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-freeze-lenticular) | 13.1% | $1.51 | 1.7% | 1,158 | 738.7 | 1.57× |
| [Sticker \| Skin Lover (Lenticular) sticker · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-skin-lover-lenticular) | 13.6% | $1.38 | 1.7% | 1,259 | 765.8 | 1.64× |
| [Sticker \| HEROIC (Gold) \| Austin 2025 sticker · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-heroic-gold-austin-2025) | 15.4% | $1.01 | 1.4% | 0 | 867.6 | 0.00× |
| [Sticker \| MIBR (Gold) \| Austin 2025 sticker · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mibr-gold-austin-2025) | 15.5% | $0.99 | 1.4% | 0 | 874.5 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/covert`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=covert)

[AWP | Hyper Beast weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast) [Baninho](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Baninho) $13.00 $42.25 3.25x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[Glock-18 | Gold Toof weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof) Hidden $13.00 $36.73 2.83x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[Sticker | TV Installation (Lenticular) sticker · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tv-installation-lenticular) [クレツィク CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%E3%82%AF%E3%83%AC%E3%83%84%E3%82%A3%E3%82%AF%20%20CS2.ME) $13.00 $3.73 0.29x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[Glock-18 | Gold Toof weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof) [Baninho](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Baninho) $13.00 $36.73 2.83x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC

[Sticker | TV Installation (Lenticular) sticker · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tv-installation-lenticular) Hidden $13.00 $3.73 0.29x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[Sticker | Skin Lover (Lenticular) sticker · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-skin-lover-lenticular) Hidden $13.00 $1.38 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Code Red weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red) Hidden $13.00 $54.46 4.19x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC

[Sticker | Skin Lover (Lenticular) sticker · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-skin-lover-lenticular) Hidden $13.00 $1.38 0.11x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC

[Glock-18 | Gold Toof weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof) Hidden $13.00 $36.73 2.83x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC

[Sticker | Old School (Lenticular) sticker · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-old-school-lenticular) Hidden $13.00 $6.03 0.46x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $13.00 | 87.50% | 72 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $13.00 | 87.34% | 72 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $13.00 | 87.90% | 72 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $13.00 | 87.82% | 72 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $13.00 | 87.56% | 72 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $13.00 | 87.75% | 72 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $13.00 | 87.17% | 72 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $13.00 | 87.01% | 72 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $13.00 | 87.50% | 72 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $13.00 | 87.97% | 72 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $13.00 | 87.99% | 72 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $13.00 | 87.64% | 72 |
| 3 Nov, 15:55 UTC | $13.00 | 87.84% | 72 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $13.00 | 87.51% | 72 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 21.3% red 50.7% rare 0.1% #eb4b4b 0.0% Covert 0.0% Ancient 14.8% Extraordinary 13.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt