--- title: "DEMOLITION JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops" description: "DEMOLITION JOKER ($539.19) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 8 items with odds, observed 72.32% over 373 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/demolition-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T19:38Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [DEMOLITION JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/demolition-joker) # [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · DEMOLITION JOKER A case on Casehug, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/demolition-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/demolition-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/demolition-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/demolition-joker?window=all) Price · $539.19 Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $471.79 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 72.32% · 373 openings, odds method Variance · 2.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 18 openings · below min 7 days · 73.82% ±16.35 358 openings 30 days · 72.32% ±16.02 373 openings since tracking started · 72.32% ±16.02 373 openings 23.0% 97.3% 171.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/demolition-joker?window=24h) | 18 | 97.35% ±73.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/demolition-joker?window=7d) | 358 | 73.82% ±16.4 | −1.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/demolition-joker) | 373 | 72.32% ±16.0 | −1.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/demolition-joker?window=all) | 373 | 72.32% ±16.0 | −1.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 416 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) | 20.0% | $2,171 | 92.0% | 71 | 83.2 | 0.85× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $104 | 1.5% | 0 | 27.7 | 0.00× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $103 | 1.4% | 0 | 27.7 | 0.00× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 15 | $102 | 1.4% | 0 | 27.7 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 10.0% | $51.70 | 1.1% | 0 | 41.6 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $48.87 | 1.0% | 0 | 41.6 | 0.00× | | [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $35.17 | 1.5% | 87 | 83.2 | 1.05× | | [Negev \| Wall Bang (Field-Tested) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-wall-bang-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.02 | 0.0% | 86 | 83.2 | 1.03× | Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/demolition-joker`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) [TØXIC](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/T%C3%98XIC) $549 $2,212 4.03x 2026-11-10 20:11 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) Hidden $549 $2,212 4.03x 2026-11-10 18:10 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) Hidden $549 $2,212 4.03x 2026-11-10 18:09 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) Hidden $549 $2,212 4.03x 2026-11-10 15:15 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) Hidden $549 $2,212 4.03x 2026-11-10 15:15 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) Hidden $549 $2,212 4.03x 2026-11-10 14:40 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) Hidden $549 $2,212 4.03x 2026-11-10 14:40 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) Hidden $549 $2,212 4.03x 2026-11-10 14:39 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) Hidden $549 $2,212 4.03x 2026-11-10 14:30 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) [Naturalson](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Naturalson) $549 $2,212 4.03x 2026-11-10 13:02 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=demolition-joker) [★ Gut Knife | Lore knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore) [TØXIC](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/T%C3%98XIC) $549 $102 0.19x 2026-11-11 19:12 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) [TØXIC](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/T%C3%98XIC) $539 $2,171 4.03x 2026-11-11 19:12 UTC [M4A4 | Cyber Security (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-minimal-wear) [Naturalson](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Naturalson) $539 $35.17 0.07x 2026-11-11 12:36 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Lore knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore) [Rysiu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Rysiu) $539 $103 0.19x 2026-11-11 12:36 UTC [M4A4 | Cyber Security (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-minimal-wear) [Naturalson](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Naturalson) $539 $35.17 0.07x 2026-11-11 12:36 UTC [Negev | Wall Bang (Field-Tested) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-wall-bang-field-tested) [Rysiu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Rysiu) $539 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:36 UTC [Negev | Wall Bang (Field-Tested) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-wall-bang-field-tested) [Naturalson](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Naturalson) $539 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:36 UTC [M4A4 | Cyber Security (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-minimal-wear) [Rysiu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Rysiu) $539 $35.17 0.07x 2026-11-11 12:36 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Lore knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore) [Naturalson](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Naturalson) $539 $103 0.19x 2026-11-11 12:36 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) [Rysiu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Rysiu) $539 $2,171 4.03x 2026-11-11 12:36 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $539 | 87.50% | 8 | | 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $549 | 87.50% | 8 | | 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $549 | 87.50% | 8 | | 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $545 | 87.50% | 8 | | 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $545 | 87.50% | 8 | | 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $545 | 87.50% | 8 | | 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $545 | 87.50% | 8 | | 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $530 | 87.50% | 8 | | 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $532 | 87.50% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 60.0% classified 20.0% blueLight 20.0% best hit $2,212 (4.03x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt