--- title: "DEMOLITION case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "DEMOLITION ($11.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.04% from 8 items with odds, observed 82.64% over 13.9K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/demolition rendered: 2026-11-11T13:46Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [DEMOLITION](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/demolition) # [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · DEMOLITION A case on Casehug (HIGH RISK), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/demolition?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/demolition?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/demolition) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/demolition?window=all) Price · $11.00 Advertised RTP · 87.04% · EV $9.57 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 82.64% · 13.9K openings, odds method Variance · 12.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 82.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 79.15% ±15.13 2,147 openings 7 days · 83.36% ±6.31 12.2K openings 30 days · 82.64% ±5.92 13.9K openings since tracking started · 82.64% ±5.92 13.9K openings 63.5% 79.3% 95.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/demolition?window=24h) | 2,147 | 79.15% ±15.1 | −1.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/demolition?window=7d) | 12.2K | 83.36% ±6.31 | −1.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/demolition) | 13.9K | 82.64% ±5.92 | −1.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/demolition?window=all) | 13.9K | 82.64% ±5.92 | −1.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 13.9K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) | 1 in 4,348 | $2,171 | 5.2% | 1 | 3.2 | 0.31× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 128 | $104 | 8.5% | 0 | 108.4 | 0.00× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 71 | $103 | 15.0% | 0 | 194.9 | 0.00× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 130 | $102 | 8.1% | 0 | 106.6 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $51.70 | 12.7% | 0 | 327.5 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 37 | $48.87 | 13.9% | 0 | 378.9 | 0.00× | | [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10 | $35.17 | 36.3% | 1,325 | 1374.0 | 0.96× | | [Negev \| Wall Bang (Field-Tested) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-wall-bang-field-tested) | 82.1% | $0.02 | 0.2% | 11,465 | 11399.6 | 1.01× | Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/demolition`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) Hidden $11.00 $2,196 199.6x 2026-11-06 21:46 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=demolition) [Negev | Wall Bang (Field-Tested) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-wall-bang-field-tested) Hidden $11.00 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC [Negev | Wall Bang (Field-Tested) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-wall-bang-field-tested) Hidden $11.00 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC [Negev | Wall Bang (Field-Tested) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-wall-bang-field-tested) Hidden $11.00 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC [Negev | Wall Bang (Field-Tested) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-wall-bang-field-tested) [.](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/) $11.00 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC [Negev | Wall Bang (Field-Tested) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-wall-bang-field-tested) Hidden $11.00 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC [Negev | Wall Bang (Field-Tested) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-wall-bang-field-tested) Hidden $11.00 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC [M4A4 | Cyber Security (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-minimal-wear) Hidden $11.00 $35.17 3.20x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC [Negev | Wall Bang (Field-Tested) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-wall-bang-field-tested) [SoBoL BuK](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/SoBoL%20BuK) $11.00 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC [Negev | Wall Bang (Field-Tested) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-wall-bang-field-tested) Hidden $11.00 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [Negev | Wall Bang (Field-Tested) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-wall-bang-field-tested) [McLovin1889](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/McLovin1889) $11.00 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $11.00 | 87.04% | 8 | | 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $11.00 | 87.01% | 8 | | 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $11.00 | 87.08% | 8 | | 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $11.00 | 87.09% | 8 | | 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $11.00 | 87.01% | 8 | | 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $11.00 | 87.03% | 8 | | 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $11.00 | 87.01% | 8 | | 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $11.00 | 87.03% | 8 | | 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $11.00 | 87.03% | 8 | | 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $11.00 | 87.03% | 8 | | 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $11.00 | 87.01% | 8 | | 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $11.00 | 86.65% | 8 | | 3 Nov, 15:55 UTC | $11.00 | 87.01% | 8 | | 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $11.00 | 87.09% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 8.1% classified 9.9% blueLight 82.1% best hit $2,196 (199.6x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.04 on average: an expected loss of $12.96 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt