---
title: "DMG JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "DMG JOKER ($545.28) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 19 items with odds, observed 76.48% over 155 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/dmg-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [DMG JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/dmg-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · DMG JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/dmg-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/dmg-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/dmg-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/dmg-joker?window=all)

Price · $545.28

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $477.12 from 19 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 76.48% · 155 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 15.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 13 openings · below min

7 days · 82.48% ±18.53 127 openings

30 days · 76.48% ±16.74 155 openings

since tracking started · 76.48% ±16.74 155 openings

0.5% 59.5% 118.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/dmg-joker?window=24h) | 13 | 59.71% ±58.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/dmg-joker?window=7d) | 127 | 82.48% ±18.5 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/dmg-joker) | 155 | 76.48% ±16.7 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/dmg-joker?window=all) | 155 | 76.48% ±16.7 | −1.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 156 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $2,262 | 24.9% | 5 | 8.2 | 0.61× |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $1,707 | 18.8% | 6 | 8.2 | 0.73× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $1,053 | 11.6% | 7 | 8.2 | 0.85× |
| [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $793 | 8.7% | 8 | 8.2 | 0.97× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $558 | 6.2% | 9 | 8.2 | 1.10× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $446 | 4.9% | 7 | 8.2 | 0.85× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $371 | 4.1% | 11 | 8.2 | 1.34× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $316 | 3.5% | 8 | 8.2 | 0.97× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $257 | 2.8% | 14 | 8.2 | 1.71× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $245 | 2.7% | 7 | 8.2 | 0.85× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $225 | 2.5% | 7 | 8.2 | 0.85× |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $192 | 2.1% | 10 | 8.2 | 1.22× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $176 | 1.9% | 11 | 8.2 | 1.34× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $175 | 1.9% | 10 | 8.2 | 1.22× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $158 | 1.7% | 5 | 8.2 | 0.61× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $125 | 1.4% | 7 | 8.2 | 0.85× |
| [MP7 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $8.52 | 0.1% | 9 | 8.2 | 1.10× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Fragments (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-fragments-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $0.11 | 0.0% | 7 | 8.2 | 0.85× |
| [MAG-7 \| Foresight (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-foresight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $0.09 | 0.0% | 8 | 8.2 | 0.97× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/dmg-joker`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) [Naturalson](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Naturalson) $557 $2,292 4.12x 2026-11-07 12:31 UTC

[★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) Hidden $557 $2,292 4.12x 2026-11-07 07:14 UTC

[★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) Hidden $557 $2,291 4.11x 2026-11-05 20:20 UTC

[★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) Hidden $557 $2,291 4.11x 2026-11-05 20:20 UTC

[★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) [RUDSONCS](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/RUDSONCS) $545 $2,269 4.16x 2026-11-10 15:37 UTC

[Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) [Rysiu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Rysiu) $557 $1,718 3.09x 2026-11-07 12:31 UTC

[Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $557 $1,718 3.09x 2026-11-06 20:16 UTC

[Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $544 $1,710 3.14x 2026-11-09 21:37 UTC

[Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) [Markoś](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Marko%C5%9B) $545 $1,707 3.13x 2026-11-11 15:50 UTC

[Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $545 $1,707 3.13x 2026-11-10 15:16 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=dmg-joker)

[★ Shadow Daggers | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) Hidden $545 $175 0.32x 2026-11-11 15:50 UTC

[Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) [Markoś](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Marko%C5%9B) $545 $1,707 3.13x 2026-11-11 15:50 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-factory-new) [Eugeniusz Krab](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Eugeniusz%20Krab) $545 $371 0.68x 2026-11-11 15:50 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) [Naturalson](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Naturalson) $545 $125 0.23x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) [Rysiu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Rysiu) $545 $175 0.32x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC

[MP7 | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-minimal-wear) [Naturalson](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Naturalson) $545 $8.52 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:59 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-fade-factory-new) [Rysiu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Rysiu) $545 $158 0.29x 2026-11-11 11:59 UTC

[AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) [Naturalson](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Naturalson) $545 $793 1.45x 2026-11-11 11:59 UTC

[M4A1-S | Fade (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-factory-new) [Rysiu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Rysiu) $545 $225 0.41x 2026-11-11 11:59 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) [Naturalson](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Naturalson) $545 $125 0.23x 2026-11-11 11:56 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $545 | 87.50% | 19 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $545 | 87.50% | 19 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $544 | 87.50% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $550 | 87.50% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $557 | 87.50% | 19 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $557 | 87.50% | 19 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $557 | 87.50% | 19 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $557 | 87.50% | 19 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $557 | 87.50% | 19 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $557 | 87.50% | 19 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $558 | 87.50% | 19 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 52.6% restricted 10.5% epic 15.8% legendary 5.3% rare 5.3% blue 10.5% best hit $2,292 (4.12x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt