---
title: "DMG case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "DMG ($50.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 19 items with odds, observed 81.84% over 3,826 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/dmg
rendered: 2026-11-11T21:44Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [DMG](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/dmg)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · DMG

A case on Casehug (CREATORS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/dmg?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/dmg?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/dmg) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/dmg?window=all)

Price · $50.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $43.75 from 19 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 81.84% · 3,826 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 78.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 92.83% ±21.19 475 openings

7 days · 81.12% ±8.63 3,247 openings

30 days · 81.84% ±7.97 3,826 openings

since tracking started · 81.84% ±7.97 3,826 openings

71.0% 92.8% 114.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/dmg?window=24h) | 475 | 92.83% ±21.2 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/dmg?window=7d) | 3,247 | 81.12% ±8.63 | −1.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/dmg) | 3,826 | 81.84% ±7.97 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/dmg?window=all) | 3,826 | 81.84% ±7.97 | −1.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,831 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $2,201 | 3.0% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,250 | $1,696 | 3.1% | 1 | 3.1 | 0.33× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 769 | $1,059 | 3.1% | 2 | 5.0 | 0.40× |
| [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 588 | $772 | 3.0% | 8 | 6.5 | 1.23× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 455 | $604 | 3.0% | 13 | 8.4 | 1.54× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $440 | 3.0% | 10 | 11.5 | 0.87× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 270 | $359 | 3.0% | 20 | 14.2 | 1.41× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 256 | $341 | 3.0% | 19 | 14.9 | 1.27× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $267 | 3.0% | 20 | 19.2 | 1.04× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 185 | $246 | 3.0% | 30 | 20.7 | 1.45× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 159 | $213 | 3.1% | 17 | 24.1 | 0.70× |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 149 | $200 | 3.1% | 24 | 25.7 | 0.94× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $177 | 15.7% | 131 | 148.6 | 0.88× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $170 | 15.7% | 111 | 154.8 | 0.72× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $158 | 15.7% | 130 | 166.6 | 0.78× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $125 | 15.7% | 270 | 209.9 | 1.29× |
| [MP7 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $8.66 | 0.5% | 97 | 102.7 | 0.94× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Fragments (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-fragments-minimal-wear) | 34.5% | $0.12 | 0.1% | 1,423 | 1322.5 | 1.08× |
| [MAG-7 \| Foresight (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-foresight-minimal-wear) | 41.0% | $0.09 | 0.1% | 1,504 | 1570.3 | 0.96× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/dmg`, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) Hidden $50.00 $2,269 45.38x 2026-11-09 06:22 UTC

[Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $50.00 $1,705 34.10x 2026-11-11 18:26 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) [Cj](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Cj) $50.00 $1,074 21.49x 2026-11-07 14:35 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) [Markoś](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Marko%C5%9B) $50.00 $1,059 21.18x 2026-11-11 15:50 UTC

[AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) [nohej](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/nohej) $50.00 $831 16.61x 2026-11-03 21:52 UTC

[AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) [KOD SOUL](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/KOD%20SOUL) $50.00 $831 16.61x 2026-11-03 15:13 UTC

[AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $50.00 $831 16.61x 2026-11-03 14:21 UTC

[AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) [fifi \_lt;3 CS2.ME skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/fifi%20_lt%3B3%20CS2.ME%20skins.army) $50.00 $821 16.42x 2026-11-04 05:12 UTC

[AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $50.00 $811 16.23x 2026-11-06 11:08 UTC

[AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) [★jawaan★](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%E2%98%85jawaan%E2%98%85) $50.00 $801 16.02x 2026-11-08 17:56 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=dmg)

[MAG-7 | Foresight (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-foresight-minimal-wear) Hidden $50.00 $0.09 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:44 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Fragments (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-fragments-minimal-wear) Hidden $50.00 $0.12 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:44 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Fragments (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-fragments-minimal-wear) Hidden $50.00 $0.12 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:44 UTC

[MAG-7 | Foresight (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-foresight-minimal-wear) [Atut](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Atut) $50.00 $0.09 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:44 UTC

[MAG-7 | Foresight (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-foresight-minimal-wear) Hidden $50.00 $0.09 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:38 UTC

[MAG-7 | Foresight (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-foresight-minimal-wear) [the trapes](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/the%20trapes) $50.00 $0.09 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:38 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-factory-new) [Filu$ Jr.](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Filu%24%20Jr.) $50.00 $359 7.18x 2026-11-11 21:24 UTC

[MAG-7 | Foresight (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-foresight-minimal-wear) [Filu$ Jr.](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Filu%24%20Jr.) $50.00 $0.09 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:24 UTC

[MAG-7 | Foresight (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-foresight-minimal-wear) [Filu$ Jr.](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Filu%24%20Jr.) $50.00 $0.09 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:23 UTC

[MAG-7 | Foresight (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-foresight-minimal-wear) Hidden $50.00 $0.09 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:09 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $50.00 | 87.50% | 19 |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $50.00 | 87.50% | 19 |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $50.00 | 87.50% | 19 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $50.00 | 87.96% | 19 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $50.00 | 87.50% | 19 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $50.00 | 87.96% | 19 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $50.00 | 87.92% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $50.00 | 87.33% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $50.00 | 87.93% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $50.00 | 87.52% | 19 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $50.00 | 88.17% | 19 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $50.00 | 87.87% | 19 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $50.00 | 86.98% | 19 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $50.00 | 87.87% | 19 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $50.00 | 87.39% | 19 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $50.00 | 87.64% | 19 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $50.00 | 87.76% | 19 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $50.00 | 87.89% | 19 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $50.00 | 87.00% | 19 |
| 3 Nov, 15:55 UTC | $50.00 | 87.16% | 19 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $50.00 | 87.00% | 19 |
| 3 Nov, 09:33 UTC | $50.00 | 90.77% | 19 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $50.00 | 87.16% | 19 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 19.8% restricted 2.8% epic 1.1% legendary 0.2% rare 0.5% blue 75.5% best hit $2,269 (45.38x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt