---
title: "DOUBLE CHEESE JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "DOUBLE CHEESE JOKER ($26.07) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.49% from 35 items with odds, observed 86.71% over 2,867 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/double-cheese-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:43Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [DOUBLE CHEESE JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/double-cheese-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · DOUBLE CHEESE JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/double-cheese-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/double-cheese-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/double-cheese-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/double-cheese-joker?window=all)

Price · $26.07

Advertised RTP · 87.49% · EV $22.81 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.71% · 2,867 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 11.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 75.17% ±16.89 323 openings

7 days · 84.72% ±6.31 2,330 openings

30 days · 86.71% ±5.69 2,867 openings

since tracking started · 86.71% ±5.69 2,867 openings

57.5% 75.3% 93.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/double-cheese-joker?window=24h) | 323 | 75.17% ±16.9 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/double-cheese-joker?window=7d) | 2,330 | 84.72% ±6.31 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/double-cheese-joker) | 2,867 | 86.71% ±5.69 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/double-cheese-joker?window=all) | 2,867 | 86.71% ±5.69 | −0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,871 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $147 | 24.7% | 105 | 110.4 | 0.95× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $134 | 22.6% | 113 | 110.4 | 1.02× |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $89.09 | 15.0% | 114 | 110.4 | 1.03× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 26 | $60.50 | 10.2% | 106 | 110.4 | 0.96× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 26 | $53.92 | 9.1% | 114 | 110.4 | 1.03× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $41.83 | 7.1% | 106 | 110.4 | 0.96× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $16.80 | 2.8% | 109 | 110.4 | 0.99× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $15.43 | 2.6% | 109 | 110.4 | 0.99× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $15.18 | 2.6% | 91 | 110.4 | 0.82× |
| [MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $7.02 | 1.2% | 115 | 110.4 | 1.04× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $4.88 | 0.8% | 120 | 110.4 | 1.09× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Charged Up (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-charged-up-field-tested) | 1 in 52 | $1.97 | 0.2% | 0 | 55.2 | 0.00× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Charged Up (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-charged-up-battle-scarred) | 1 in 52 | $1.45 | 0.1% | 0 | 55.2 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Powercore (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-powercore-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $1.10 | 0.2% | 129 | 110.4 | 1.17× |
| [G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 52 | $1.01 | 0.1% | 0 | 55.2 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 52 | $0.83 | 0.1% | 0 | 55.2 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-space-cat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 104 | $0.80 | 0.0% | 0 | 27.6 | 0.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-well-worn) | 1 in 52 | $0.66 | 0.1% | 0 | 55.2 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-space-cat-well-worn) | 1 in 104 | $0.66 | 0.0% | 0 | 27.6 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-space-cat-field-tested) | 1 in 104 | $0.66 | 0.0% | 0 | 27.6 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-space-cat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 104 | $0.64 | 0.0% | 0 | 27.6 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 52 | $0.46 | 0.0% | 0 | 55.2 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-warm-blooded-minimal-wear) | 1 in 52 | $0.46 | 0.0% | 0 | 55.2 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.46 | 0.1% | 95 | 110.4 | 0.86× |
| [Galil AR \| Connexion (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.46 | 0.1% | 108 | 110.4 | 0.98× |
| [MP7 \| Mischief (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-mischief-field-tested) | 1 in 52 | $0.43 | 0.0% | 0 | 55.2 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Windblown (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-windblown-factory-new) | 1 in 52 | $0.43 | 0.0% | 0 | 55.2 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Windblown (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-windblown-field-tested) | 1 in 52 | $0.31 | 0.0% | 0 | 55.2 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Wood Fired (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-battle-scarred) | 1 in 26 | $0.28 | 0.0% | 117 | 110.4 | 1.06× |
| [MP7 \| Mischief (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-mischief-battle-scarred) | 1 in 52 | $0.24 | 0.0% | 0 | 55.2 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Red Wing (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-red-wing-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.24 | 0.0% | 100 | 110.4 | 0.91× |
| [MP5-SD \| Focus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-focus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.24 | 0.0% | 116 | 110.4 | 1.05× |
| [UMP-45 \| Warm Blooded (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-warm-blooded-field-tested) | 1 in 52 | $0.20 | 0.0% | 0 | 55.2 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Negev \| Drop Me (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-drop-me-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.20 | 0.0% | 111 | 110.4 | 1.01× |
| [MAC-10 \| Silver (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-silver-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.17 | 0.0% | 109 | 110.4 | 0.99× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/double-cheese-joker`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=double-cheese-joker)

[MAC-10 | Silver (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-silver-factory-new) [ja CS2.ME\_skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/ja%20CS2.ME_skins.army) $26.07 $0.17 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:13 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon) [ja CS2.ME\_skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/ja%20CS2.ME_skins.army) $26.07 $0.65 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:12 UTC

[M4A4 | The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) [ja CS2.ME\_skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/ja%20CS2.ME_skins.army) $26.07 $60.50 2.32x 2026-11-11 20:12 UTC

[StatTrak™ Negev | Drop Me (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-drop-me-minimal-wear) [ja CS2.ME\_skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/ja%20CS2.ME_skins.army) $26.07 $0.20 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:12 UTC

[Zeus x27 | Charged Up weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-charged-up) Hidden $26.07 $1.71 0.07x 2026-11-11 20:05 UTC

[MAC-10 | Silver (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-silver-factory-new) [IIIPEPSI COLAIII](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/IIIPEPSI%20COLAIII) $26.07 $0.17 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:05 UTC

[M4A1-S | Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) Hidden $26.07 $15.18 0.58x 2026-11-11 19:58 UTC

[MAC-10 | Silver (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-silver-factory-new) [\_Makłowicz \_skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/_Mak%C5%82owicz%20_skins.army) $26.07 $0.17 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:58 UTC

[P2000 | Red Wing (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-red-wing-minimal-wear) [????Tysiak™](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%3F%3F%3F%3FTysiak%E2%84%A2) $26.07 $0.24 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:45 UTC

[AK-47 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) [????Tysiak™](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%3F%3F%3F%3FTysiak%E2%84%A2) $26.07 $147 5.62x 2026-11-11 19:45 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $26.07 | 87.49% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $25.64 | 87.50% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $26.20 | 87.49% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $26.32 | 87.51% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $26.79 | 87.49% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $26.54 | 87.50% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $26.22 | 87.50% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $25.78 | 87.48% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $26.54 | 87.51% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $25.78 | 87.48% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $26.54 | 87.51% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $26.38 | 87.48% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $26.14 | 87.50% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $25.60 | 87.49% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $26.10 | 87.50% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 04:46 UTC | $25.95 | 87.51% | 35 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $26.07 | 87.51% | 35 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $26.36 | 87.49% | 35 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 15.4% sunny 3.8% extraordinary 3.8% classified 15.4% pink 3.8% violet 19.2% Mythical 6.7% Restricted 1.0% #4b69ff 1.9% mil spec 3.8% Rare 5.8% Mil Spec 1.9% blue 9.6% milspec 3.8% light blue 3.8% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.49 on average: an expected loss of $12.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt