---
title: "DOUBLE CHEESE case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "DOUBLE CHEESE ($0.45) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 35 items with odds, observed 84.99% over 80.5K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/double-cheese
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:38Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [DOUBLE CHEESE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/double-cheese)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · DOUBLE CHEESE

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/double-cheese?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/double-cheese?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/double-cheese) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/double-cheese?window=all)

Price · $0.45

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $0.39 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.99% · 80.5K openings, odds method

Variance · 6.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 25.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 83.60% ±5.33 9,121 openings

7 days · 84.43% ±1.99 67K openings

30 days · 84.99% ±1.81 80.5K openings

since tracking started · 84.99% ±1.81 80.5K openings

77.5% 83.5% 89.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.80% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (83.18% – 86.80%, 80,536 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/double-cheese?window=24h) | 9,121 | 83.60% ±5.33 | −1.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/double-cheese?window=7d) | 67K | 84.43% ±1.99 | −3.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/double-cheese) | 80.5K | 84.99% ±1.81 | −3.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/double-cheese?window=all) | 80.5K | 84.99% ±1.81 | −3.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 80.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 50,000 | $147 | 0.7% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.24× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $134 | 0.7% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.62× |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-field-tested) | 1 in 50,000 | $89.09 | 0.5% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50,000 | $60.50 | 0.3% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.24× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50,000 | $53.92 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $41.83 | 0.5% | 1 | 4.0 | 0.25× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $16.80 | 0.4% | 6 | 8.1 | 0.74× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $15.43 | 0.2% | 3 | 4.0 | 0.74× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $15.18 | 0.4% | 6 | 8.1 | 0.74× |
| [MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $7.02 | 0.2% | 3 | 8.1 | 0.37× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-field-tested) | 1 in 203 | $4.88 | 6.1% | 382 | 397.3 | 0.96× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Charged Up (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-charged-up-field-tested) | 1 in 194 | $1.97 | 2.6% | 0 | 416.7 | 0.00× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Charged Up (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-charged-up-battle-scarred) | 1 in 105 | $1.45 | 3.5% | 0 | 769.7 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Powercore (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-powercore-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $1.10 | 6.1% | 1,667 | 1759.8 | 0.95× |
| [G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 106 | $1.01 | 2.4% | 0 | 758.3 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 97 | $0.83 | 2.2% | 0 | 831.8 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-space-cat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 156 | $0.80 | 1.3% | 0 | 518.5 | 0.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-well-worn) | 1 in 46 | $0.66 | 3.7% | 0 | 1774.3 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-space-cat-well-worn) | 1 in 106 | $0.66 | 1.6% | 0 | 760.8 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-space-cat-field-tested) | 1 in 106 | $0.66 | 1.6% | 0 | 760.8 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-space-cat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $0.64 | 1.6% | 0 | 809.2 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $0.46 | 3.9% | 0 | 2707.1 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $0.46 | 6.1% | 3,735 | 4206.8 | 0.89× |
| [Galil AR \| Connexion (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $0.46 | 6.1% | 3,789 | 4206.0 | 0.90× |
| [UMP-45 \| Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-warm-blooded-minimal-wear) | 1 in 63 | $0.46 | 1.8% | 0 | 1275.2 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Mischief (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-mischief-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $0.43 | 2.9% | 0 | 2166.8 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Windblown (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-windblown-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $0.43 | 3.4% | 0 | 2534.3 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Windblown (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-windblown-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.31 | 3.9% | 0 | 4005.7 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Wood Fired (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $0.28 | 6.3% | 6,763 | 7179.7 | 0.94× |
| [MP7 \| Mischief (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-mischief-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16 | $0.24 | 3.7% | 0 | 4901.4 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Red Wing (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-red-wing-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $0.24 | 5.8% | 7,393 | 7636.8 | 0.97× |
| [MP5-SD \| Focus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-focus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $0.24 | 5.8% | 7,365 | 7636.8 | 0.96× |
| [UMP-45 \| Warm Blooded (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-warm-blooded-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.20 | 3.6% | 0 | 5726.0 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Negev \| Drop Me (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-drop-me-minimal-wear) | 10.2% | $0.20 | 5.2% | 8,562 | 8214.2 | 1.04× |
| [MAC-10 \| Silver (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-silver-factory-new) | 10.9% | $0.17 | 4.7% | 9,697 | 8766.6 | 1.11× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/double-cheese`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) Hidden $0.45 $148 329.4x 2026-11-09 09:38 UTC

[AK-47 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) [mc madafaka](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/mc%20madafaka) $0.45 $140 311.4x 2026-11-03 05:51 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [ADI](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/ADI) $0.45 $136 302.1x 2026-11-05 23:41 UTC

[M4A4 | The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) [SKINS\_w.4.z\_CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/SKINS_w.4.z_CS2.ME) $0.45 $65.21 144.9x 2026-11-04 11:04 UTC

[M4A4 | The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) [Pompuss\_\_skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Pompuss__skins.army) $0.45 $62.85 139.7x 2026-11-09 20:16 UTC

[AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) Hidden $0.45 $42.01 93.36x 2026-11-04 17:28 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=double-cheese)

[R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon) Hidden $0.45 $0.55 1.22x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC

[Galil AR | Connexion (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-field-tested) Hidden $0.45 $0.46 1.02x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC

[StatTrak™ Negev | Drop Me (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-drop-me-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.45 $0.20 0.44x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC

[MP5-SD | Focus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-focus-minimal-wear) [KiraRosieskins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/KiraRosieskins.army) $0.45 $0.24 0.53x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC

[SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) [Thomass\_CZ:: -\_-| CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Thomass_CZ%3A%3A%20-_-%7C%20CS2.ME) $0.45 $0.46 1.02x 2026-11-11 13:37 UTC

[SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) [Barterorystak](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Barterorystak) $0.45 $0.46 1.02x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[Zeus x27 | Charged Up weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-charged-up) Hidden $0.45 $1.63 3.62x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[StatTrak™ Negev | Drop Me (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-drop-me-minimal-wear) [grajekk7](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/grajekk7) $0.45 $0.20 0.44x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[MAC-10 | Silver (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-silver-factory-new) Hidden $0.45 $0.17 0.38x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[StatTrak™ Negev | Drop Me (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-drop-me-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.45 $0.20 0.44x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $0.45 | 87.50% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $0.45 | 87.67% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $0.45 | 87.85% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $0.45 | 87.14% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $0.45 | 87.91% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $0.45 | 88.45% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $0.45 | 88.34% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $0.45 | 87.87% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $0.45 | 87.99% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $0.45 | 87.59% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $0.45 | 87.87% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $0.45 | 88.15% | 35 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $0.45 | 88.04% | 35 |
| 3 Nov, 09:33 UTC | $0.45 | 88.43% | 35 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $0.45 | 88.19% | 35 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% sunny 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% classified 0.5% pink 0.0% violet 18.0% Mythical 6.5% Restricted 0.6% #4b69ff 1.6% mil spec 8.8% Rare 12.6% Mil Spec 5.0% blue 26.2% milspec 9.5% light blue 10.9% best hit $148 (329.4x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt