---
title: "DRAGON CLAW JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "DRAGON CLAW JOKER ($766.26) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 50 items with odds, observed 79.60% over 2,393 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/dragon-claw-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T21:13Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [DRAGON CLAW JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/dragon-claw-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · DRAGON CLAW JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 10 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/dragon-claw-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/dragon-claw-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/dragon-claw-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/dragon-claw-joker?window=all)

Price · $766.26

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $670.47 from 50 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 79.60% · 2,393 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 19 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 82.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 79.79% ±13.19 1,038 openings

7 days · 79.60% ±8.63 2,393 openings

30 days · 79.60% ±8.63 2,393 openings

since tracking started · 79.60% ±8.63 2,393 openings

66.0% 79.8% 93.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/dragon-claw-joker?window=24h) | 1,038 | 79.79% ±13.2 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/dragon-claw-joker?window=7d) | 2,393 | 79.60% ±8.63 | −1.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/dragon-claw-joker) | 2,393 | 79.60% ±8.63 | −1.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/dragon-claw-joker?window=all) | 2,393 | 79.60% ±8.63 | −1.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 50 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,398 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 29 | $8,568 | 44.1% | 72 | 82.7 | 0.87× |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) | 1 in 58 | $4,356 | 11.2% | 0 | 41.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 29 | $2,233 | 11.5% | 74 | 82.7 | 0.89× |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-minimal-wear) | 1 in 58 | $1,503 | 3.9% | 0 | 41.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · gold · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 29 | $1,421 | 7.3% | 92 | 82.7 | 1.11× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Ultra Violent (Well-Worn) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-ultra-violent-well-worn) | 1 in 58 | $969 | 2.5% | 0 | 41.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $931 | 2.4% | 0 | 41.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Ultra Violent (Battle-Scarred) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-ultra-violent-battle-scarred) | 1 in 58 | $756 | 1.9% | 0 | 41.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) | 1 in 58 | $717 | 1.8% | 0 | 41.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $706 | 3.6% | 85 | 82.7 | 1.03× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 29 | $521 | 2.7% | 78 | 82.7 | 0.94× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 116 | $294 | 0.4% | 0 | 20.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 116 | $219 | 0.3% | 0 | 20.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 116 | $210 | 0.3% | 0 | 20.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 116 | $186 | 0.2% | 0 | 20.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 116 | $163 | 0.2% | 0 | 20.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 116 | $153 | 0.2% | 0 | 20.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-well-worn) | 1 in 116 | $152 | 0.2% | 0 | 20.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 116 | $138 | 0.2% | 0 | 20.7 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Baroque Orange (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-baroque-orange-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $138 | 0.7% | 91 | 82.7 | 1.10× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $133 | 0.7% | 80 | 82.7 | 0.97× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 58 | $92.01 | 0.2% | 0 | 41.3 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Modern Hunter (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-modern-hunter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $88.59 | 0.5% | 91 | 82.7 | 1.10× |
| [FAMAS \| Sundown (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sundown-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $83.84 | 0.4% | 74 | 82.7 | 0.89× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-well-worn) | 1 in 58 | $82.27 | 0.2% | 0 | 41.3 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Day Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-day-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 58 | $76.27 | 0.2% | 0 | 41.3 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Day Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-day-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $69.51 | 0.2% | 0 | 41.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 87 | $65.55 | 0.1% | 0 | 27.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-well-worn) | 1 in 87 | $58.52 | 0.1% | 0 | 27.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-field-tested) | 1 in 87 | $57.30 | 0.1% | 0 | 27.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 87 | $55.91 | 0.1% | 0 | 27.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 87 | $53.66 | 0.1% | 0 | 27.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-battle-scarred) | 1 in 87 | $47.52 | 0.1% | 0 | 27.6 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Contractor (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-contractor-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $46.88 | 0.2% | 70 | 82.7 | 0.85× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-well-worn) | 1 in 87 | $40.90 | 0.1% | 0 | 27.6 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-field-tested) | 1 in 87 | $40.18 | 0.1% | 0 | 27.6 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Woodsman (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-woodsman-factory-new) | 1 in 58 | $36.08 | 0.1% | 0 | 41.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $30.83 | 0.2% | 72 | 82.7 | 0.87× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Battle-Scarred) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-battle-scarred) | 1 in 87 | $30.68 | 0.1% | 0 | 27.6 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Woodsman (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-woodsman-minimal-wear) | 1 in 58 | $26.16 | 0.1% | 0 | 41.4 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-battle-scarred) | 1 in 116 | $25.61 | 0.0% | 0 | 20.7 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-minimal-wear) | 1 in 116 | $23.99 | 0.0% | 0 | 20.7 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-well-worn) | 1 in 116 | $23.61 | 0.0% | 0 | 20.7 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-field-tested) | 1 in 116 | $23.12 | 0.0% | 0 | 20.7 | 0.00× |
| [Souvenir XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-elegant-vines-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $23.06 | 0.1% | 74 | 82.7 | 0.89× |
| [XM1014 \| Tranquility (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $22.03 | 0.1% | 91 | 82.7 | 1.10× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $20.04 | 0.1% | 0 | 82.7 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Death Grip (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-grip-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $18.44 | 0.1% | 95 | 82.7 | 1.15× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $15.70 | 0.1% | 0 | 82.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $15.42 | 0.1% | 0 | 82.7 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/dragon-claw-joker`, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $766 $8,568 11.18x 2026-11-11 20:46 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $766 $8,568 11.18x 2026-11-11 20:14 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $766 $8,568 11.18x 2026-11-11 20:13 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [Twitch/niico\_bn](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Twitch%2Fniico_bn) $766 $8,568 11.18x 2026-11-11 20:13 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [Twitch/niico\_bn](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Twitch%2Fniico_bn) $766 $8,568 11.18x 2026-11-11 20:13 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $766 $8,568 11.18x 2026-11-11 20:12 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [KOD: GRANAT](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/KOD%3A%20GRANAT) $766 $8,568 11.18x 2026-11-11 19:49 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [KOD: GRANAT](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/KOD%3A%20GRANAT) $766 $8,568 11.18x 2026-11-11 19:49 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $766 $8,568 11.18x 2026-11-11 18:52 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $766 $8,568 11.18x 2026-11-11 18:46 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=dragon-claw-joker)

[AK-47 | Crane Flight (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-minimal-wear) Hidden $766 $30.83 0.04x 2026-11-11 21:06 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Contractor (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-contractor-factory-new) Hidden $766 $46.88 0.06x 2026-11-11 21:06 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $766 $133 0.17x 2026-11-11 21:06 UTC

[AK-47 | Asiimov weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov) [XD](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/XD) $766 $58.37 0.08x 2026-11-11 21:06 UTC

[M4A4 | 龍王 weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4) Hidden $766 $17.05 0.02x 2026-11-11 21:06 UTC

[P90 | Death Grip (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-grip-well-worn) Hidden $766 $18.44 0.02x 2026-11-11 21:06 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Contractor (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-contractor-factory-new) Hidden $766 $46.88 0.06x 2026-11-11 21:06 UTC

[UMP-45 | Day Lily weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-day-lily) [XD](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/XD) $766 $72.89 0.10x 2026-11-11 21:06 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive) Hidden $766 $87.14 0.11x 2026-11-11 21:05 UTC

[Nova | Baroque Orange (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-baroque-orange-field-tested) Hidden $766 $138 0.18x 2026-11-11 21:05 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $766 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $764 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $761 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $807 | 88.50% | 50 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 29.0% gold 3.4% sunny 5.2% legendary 1.7% epic 3.4% red 2.0% violet 10.3% blue 6.9% #4b69ff 1.7% milspec 1.7% Ancient 1.1% rare 6.9% consumer 3.4% uncommon 2.3% restricted 3.4% pink 13.8% classified 3.4% best hit $8,568 (11.18x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt