---
title: "DRAGON CLAW case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "DRAGON CLAW ($50.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 50 items with odds, observed 87.28% over 15K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/dragon-claw
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:40Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [DRAGON CLAW](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/dragon-claw)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · DRAGON CLAW

A case on Casehug (Event), first seen 10 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/dragon-claw?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/dragon-claw?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/dragon-claw) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/dragon-claw?window=all)

Price · $50.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $43.75 from 50 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.28% · 15K openings, odds method

Variance · 2.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 24.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 85.59% ±2.90 11.7K openings

7 days · 87.28% ±2.56 15K openings

30 days · 87.28% ±2.56 15K openings

since tracking started · 87.28% ±2.56 15K openings

82.0% 86.3% 90.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/dragon-claw?window=24h) | 11.7K | 85.59% ±2.90 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/dragon-claw?window=7d) | 15K | 87.28% ±2.56 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/dragon-claw) | 15K | 87.28% ±2.56 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/dragon-claw?window=all) | 15K | 87.28% ±2.56 | −0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 50 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16.1K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 33,333 | $8,537 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) | 1 in 14,286 | $4,355 | 0.7% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 5,000 | $2,233 | 1.0% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.62× |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,508 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · gold · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,384 | 0.6% | 0 | 3.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Ultra Violent (Well-Worn) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-ultra-violent-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $969 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $933 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Ultra Violent (Battle-Scarred) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-ultra-violent-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $776 | 0.4% | 0 | 3.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $716 | 0.3% | 0 | 3.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $697 | 0.5% | 7 | 4.8 | 1.45× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 2,000 | $521 | 0.6% | 8 | 8.0 | 1.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $277 | 0.1% | 0 | 3.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 667 | $212 | 0.7% | 0 | 24.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 667 | $210 | 0.7% | 0 | 24.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 769 | $193 | 0.6% | 0 | 20.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 500 | $175 | 0.8% | 0 | 32.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 526 | $155 | 0.7% | 0 | 30.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $152 | 0.7% | 0 | 32.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 476 | $147 | 0.7% | 0 | 33.8 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Baroque Orange (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-baroque-orange-field-tested) | 1 in 120 | $139 | 2.6% | 130 | 133.4 | 0.97× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 116 | $134 | 2.6% | 134 | 138.2 | 0.97× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 74 | $90.51 | 2.8% | 0 | 217.0 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Modern Hunter (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-modern-hunter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $88.56 | 6.3% | 462 | 499.9 | 0.92× |
| [FAMAS \| Sundown (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sundown-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $83.77 | 6.3% | 445 | 527.2 | 0.84× |
| [UMP-45 \| Day Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-day-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 58 | $76.73 | 3.0% | 0 | 274.9 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-well-worn) | 1 in 42 | $72.60 | 3.9% | 0 | 381.0 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Day Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-day-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $70.30 | 3.7% | 0 | 369.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 75 | $66.23 | 2.0% | 0 | 215.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-well-worn) | 1 in 61 | $58.63 | 2.2% | 0 | 265.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-field-tested) | 1 in 55 | $55.66 | 2.3% | 0 | 294.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 51 | $54.68 | 2.5% | 0 | 316.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $51.70 | 2.6% | 0 | 353.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-battle-scarred) | 1 in 46 | $50.97 | 2.6% | 0 | 352.0 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Contractor (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-contractor-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $46.88 | 6.9% | 1,056 | 1033.6 | 1.02× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-field-tested) | 1 in 51 | $41.17 | 1.8% | 0 | 315.1 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-well-worn) | 1 in 48 | $39.14 | 1.9% | 0 | 337.6 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Woodsman (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-woodsman-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $36.08 | 2.4% | 0 | 472.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $31.38 | 5.3% | 1,163 | 1186.3 | 0.98× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Battle-Scarred) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-battle-scarred) | 1 in 34 | $30.88 | 2.1% | 0 | 471.0 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-minimal-wear) | 1 in 55 | $26.89 | 1.1% | 0 | 290.9 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Woodsman (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-woodsman-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $26.29 | 2.8% | 0 | 737.8 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-battle-scarred) | 1 in 52 | $25.56 | 1.1% | 0 | 311.8 | 0.00× |
| [XM1014 \| Tranquility (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $24.04 | 4.5% | 1,309 | 1319.7 | 0.99× |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-well-worn) | 1 in 46 | $23.65 | 1.2% | 0 | 348.8 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $23.30 | 1.2% | 0 | 355.2 | 0.00× |
| [Souvenir XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-elegant-vines-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $23.06 | 4.4% | 1,395 | 1342.2 | 1.04× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-well-worn) | 1 in 41 | $20.09 | 1.1% | 0 | 395.4 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Death Grip (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-grip-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $18.33 | 3.8% | 1,489 | 1470.8 | 1.01× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-battle-scarred) | 1 in 28 | $15.51 | 1.2% | 0 | 565.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $15.43 | 1.2% | 0 | 548.1 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/dragon-claw`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AUG | Akihabara Accept weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept) Hidden $50.00 $2,662 53.23x 2026-11-10 18:29 UTC

[AUG | Akihabara Accept weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept) Hidden $50.00 $2,662 53.23x 2026-11-10 14:39 UTC

[AUG | Akihabara Accept weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept) [Japczan](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Japczan) $50.00 $2,661 53.23x 2026-11-10 12:23 UTC

[AUG | Akihabara Accept weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept) Hidden $50.00 $2,661 53.23x 2026-11-10 11:38 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $50.00 $2,234 44.67x 2026-11-10 10:27 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $50.00 $2,234 44.67x 2026-11-10 08:32 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Ultra Violent gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-ultra-violent) Hidden $50.00 $846 16.93x 2026-11-10 17:47 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Ultra Violent gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-ultra-violent) Hidden $50.00 $846 16.93x 2026-11-10 17:09 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Ultra Violent gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-ultra-violent) Hidden $50.00 $846 16.93x 2026-11-10 14:51 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Ultra Violent gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-ultra-violent) Hidden $50.00 $841 16.81x 2026-11-10 21:16 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=dragon-claw)

[M4A4 | 龍王 weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4) Hidden $50.00 $16.68 0.33x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-factory-new) Hidden $50.00 $24.04 0.48x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[UMP-45 | Day Lily weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-day-lily) Hidden $50.00 $73.04 1.46x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-elegant-vines-minimal-wear) [N:OW](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/N%3AOW) $50.00 $23.06 0.46x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[AK-47 | Crane Flight (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-minimal-wear) Hidden $50.00 $31.38 0.63x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[P90 | Death Grip (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-grip-well-worn) Hidden $50.00 $18.33 0.37x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Contractor (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-contractor-factory-new) Hidden $50.00 $46.88 0.94x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[Glock-18 | AXIA weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia) [N:OW](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/N%3AOW) $50.00 $24.73 0.49x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-elegant-vines-minimal-wear) Hidden $50.00 $23.06 0.46x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[M4A1-S | Vaporwave weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave) Hidden $50.00 $54.71 1.09x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $50.00 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $50.00 | 87.88% | 50 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $50.00 | 87.94% | 50 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 9.1% gold 0.0% sunny 0.9% legendary 0.0% epic 0.0% red 2.0% violet 18.3% blue 6.4% #4b69ff 1.7% milspec 2.3% Ancient 1.3% rare 13.9% consumer 6.4% uncommon 5.0% restricted 7.5% pink 16.8% classified 8.2% best hit $2,662 (53.23x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt