---
title: "DUCK LUCK JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "DUCK LUCK JOKER ($17.57) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.51% from 13 items with odds, observed 85.84% over 7,015 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/duck-luck-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T21:35Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [DUCK LUCK JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/duck-luck-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · DUCK LUCK JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/duck-luck-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/duck-luck-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/duck-luck-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/duck-luck-joker?window=all)

Price · $17.57

Advertised RTP · 87.51% · EV $15.37 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.84% · 7,015 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 89.20% ±9.42 685 openings

7 days · 88.19% ±3.28 5,617 openings

30 days · 85.84% ±2.94 7,015 openings

since tracking started · 85.84% ±2.94 7,015 openings

79.0% 89.3% 99.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/duck-luck-joker?window=24h) | 685 | 89.20% ±9.42 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/duck-luck-joker?window=7d) | 5,617 | 88.19% ±3.28 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/duck-luck-joker) | 7,015 | 85.84% ±2.94 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/duck-luck-joker?window=all) | 7,015 | 85.84% ±2.94 | −1.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,019 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-field-tested) | 10.0% | $67.12 | 43.7% | 671 | 701.9 | 0.96× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-field-tested) | 10.0% | $47.02 | 30.6% | 715 | 701.9 | 1.02× |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-field-tested) | 10.0% | $20.72 | 13.5% | 678 | 701.9 | 0.97× |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $14.08 | 2.3% | 0 | 175.5 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $8.18 | 1.3% | 0 | 175.5 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $5.77 | 0.9% | 0 | 175.5 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-field-tested) | 10.0% | $5.01 | 3.3% | 686 | 701.9 | 0.98× |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Battle-Scarred) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $4.48 | 0.7% | 0 | 175.5 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-embargo-well-worn) | 10.0% | $2.03 | 1.3% | 679 | 701.9 | 0.97× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Charged Up (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-charged-up-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $1.48 | 1.0% | 713 | 701.9 | 1.02× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $1.06 | 0.7% | 749 | 701.9 | 1.07× |
| [P2000 \| Acid Etched (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched-field-tested) | 10.0% | $0.75 | 0.5% | 744 | 701.9 | 1.06× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) | 10.0% | $0.43 | 0.3% | 693 | 701.9 | 0.99× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/duck-luck-joker`, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=duck-luck-joker)

[SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) Hidden $17.57 $0.43 0.02x 2026-11-11 21:27 UTC

[Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-field-tested) [Nissan Laurel C35cstorm.pl](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Nissan%20Laurel%20C35cstorm.pl) $17.57 $20.72 1.18x 2026-11-11 21:27 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-field-tested) Hidden $17.57 $67.12 3.82x 2026-11-11 21:21 UTC

[SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) [Back2R](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Back2R) $17.57 $0.43 0.02x 2026-11-11 21:21 UTC

[P2000 | Acid Etched (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched-field-tested) Hidden $17.57 $0.75 0.04x 2026-11-11 21:19 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Embargo (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-embargo-well-worn) [kieron](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/kieron) $17.57 $2.03 0.12x 2026-11-11 21:19 UTC

[Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-charged-up-battle-scarred) [wresTi](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/wresTi) $17.57 $1.48 0.08x 2026-11-11 21:08 UTC

[MAC-10 | Stalker (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-field-tested) [Plonek BOSS](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Plonek%20BOSS) $17.57 $47.02 2.68x 2026-11-11 21:08 UTC

[MP9 | Food Chain (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-field-tested) Hidden $17.57 $5.01 0.29x 2026-11-11 21:04 UTC

[MP7 | Smoking Kills weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills) [Nissan Laurel C35cstorm.pl](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Nissan%20Laurel%20C35cstorm.pl) $17.57 $8.13 0.46x 2026-11-11 21:04 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $17.57 | 87.51% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $17.84 | 87.51% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $17.34 | 87.49% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $17.27 | 87.48% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $17.66 | 87.49% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $17.27 | 87.48% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $17.63 | 87.52% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $17.44 | 87.49% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $18.10 | 87.52% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $17.68 | 87.51% | 13 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $17.44 | 87.49% | 13 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $17.34 | 87.50% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $17.41 | 87.49% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $17.44 | 87.52% | 13 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $17.15 | 87.52% | 13 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $17.38 | 87.50% | 13 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $17.47 | 87.52% | 13 |
| 3 Nov, 15:55 UTC | $17.24 | 87.48% | 13 |
| 3 Nov, 09:33 UTC | $17.58 | 87.51% | 13 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $17.24 | 87.48% | 13 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 20.0% classified 20.0% Legendary 2.5% uncommon 7.5% #8847ff 10.0% violet 30.0% Mythical 10.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.51 on average: an expected loss of $12.49 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt