--- title: "DUCK LUCK case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "DUCK LUCK ($1.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 13 items with odds, observed 83.45% over 16.9K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/duck-luck rendered: 2026-11-11T13:30Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [DUCK LUCK](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/duck-luck) # [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · DUCK LUCK A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/duck-luck?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/duck-luck?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/duck-luck) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/duck-luck?window=all) Price · $1.00 Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $0.88 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.45% · 16.9K openings, odds method Variance · 6.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 50.7% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 89.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 85.07% ±11.12 1,892 openings 7 days · 81.67% ±4.06 14.8K openings 30 days · 83.45% ±3.81 16.9K openings since tracking started · 83.45% ±3.81 16.9K openings 73.5% 85.3% 97.0% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.77% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (79.64% – 87.27%, 16,851 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/duck-luck?window=24h) | 1,892 | 85.07% ±11.1 | −0.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/duck-luck?window=7d) | 14.8K | 81.67% ±4.06 | −2.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/duck-luck) | 16.9K | 83.45% ±3.81 | −2.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/duck-luck?window=all) | 16.9K | 83.45% ±3.81 | −2.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16.9K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 1,562 | $66.66 | 4.9% | 4 | 10.8 | 0.37× | | [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-field-tested) | 1 in 1,149 | $48.67 | 4.8% | 14 | 14.7 | 0.95× | | [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-field-tested) | 1 in 513 | $21.70 | 4.8% | 34 | 32.9 | 1.03× | | [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,857 | $14.77 | 0.6% | 0 | 5.9 | 0.00× | | [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-field-tested) | 1 in 870 | $7.99 | 1.1% | 0 | 19.4 | 0.00× | | [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-well-worn) | 1 in 455 | $5.78 | 1.5% | 0 | 37.1 | 0.00× | | [MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-field-tested) | 1 in 116 | $4.88 | 4.8% | 157 | 145.7 | 1.08× | | [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Battle-Scarred) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-battle-scarred) | 1 in 310 | $4.76 | 1.8% | 0 | 54.5 | 0.00× | | [PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-embargo-well-worn) | 1 in 48 | $2.02 | 4.8% | 378 | 351.5 | 1.08× | | [Zeus x27 \| Charged Up (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-charged-up-battle-scarred) | 1 in 34 | $1.45 | 4.8% | 527 | 489.8 | 1.08× | | [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-battle-scarred) | 1 in 28 | $1.19 | 4.8% | 644 | 596.5 | 1.08× | | [P2000 \| Acid Etched (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched-field-tested) | 40.2% | $0.77 | 35.4% | 6,628 | 6782.6 | 0.98× | | [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) | 49.3% | $0.46 | 25.9% | 8,350 | 8318.7 | 1.00× | Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/duck-luck`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-field-tested) [Gumio](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Gumio) $1.00 $66.45 66.45x 2026-11-10 16:22 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-field-tested) [Sizifinio](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Sizifinio) $1.00 $66.25 66.25x 2026-11-04 10:59 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $66.25 66.25x 2026-11-04 02:50 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $64.50 64.50x 2026-11-10 06:11 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=duck-luck) [SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $0.46 0.46x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC [SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) [Porębiarz\_45CS2.ME SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Por%C4%99biarz_45CS2.ME%20SKINS) $1.00 $0.46 0.46x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC [SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) [T y m s k i](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/T%20y%20m%20s%20k%20i) $1.00 $0.46 0.46x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC [SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) [T y m s k i](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/T%20y%20m%20s%20k%20i) $1.00 $0.46 0.46x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC [P2000 | Acid Etched (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched-field-tested) [xhitmanheadx](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/xhitmanheadx) $1.00 $0.77 0.77x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [P2000 | Acid Etched (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $0.77 0.77x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC [SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $0.46 0.46x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC [P2000 | Acid Etched (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $0.77 0.77x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC [SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) [❟❛❟\[HENTAI+\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%E2%9D%9F%E2%9D%9B%E2%9D%9F%5BHENTAI%2B%5D) $1.00 $0.46 0.46x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC [P2000 | Acid Etched (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $0.77 0.77x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $1.00 | 87.50% | 13 | | 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $1.00 | 88.23% | 13 | | 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $1.00 | 86.92% | 13 | | 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $1.00 | 87.08% | 13 | | 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $1.00 | 84.66% | 13 | | 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $1.00 | 87.01% | 13 | | 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $1.00 | 87.86% | 13 | | 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $1.00 | 88.39% | 13 | | 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $1.00 | 88.16% | 13 | | 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $1.00 | 88.45% | 13 | | 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $1.00 | 87.64% | 13 | | 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $1.00 | 88.45% | 13 | | 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.00 | 88.12% | 13 | | 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $1.00 | 88.11% | 13 | | 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $1.00 | 88.19% | 13 | | 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $1.00 | 88.33% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.2% classified 1.1% Legendary 0.0% uncommon 0.7% #8847ff 2.1% violet 55.8% Mythical 40.2% best hit $66.45 (66.45x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt