---
title: "DUEL JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "DUEL JOKER ($117.67) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 55 items with odds, observed 88.02% over 531 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/duel-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:51Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [DUEL JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/duel-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · DUEL JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/duel-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/duel-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/duel-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/duel-joker?window=all)

Price · $117.67

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $102.96 from 55 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.02% · 531 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 14.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 66.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 51 openings · below min

7 days · 85.79% ±11.98 380 openings

30 days · 88.02% ±10.14 531 openings

since tracking started · 88.02% ±10.14 531 openings

33.0% 66.3% 99.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/duel-joker?window=24h) | 51 | 66.26% ±32.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/duel-joker?window=7d) | 380 | 85.79% ±12.0 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/duel-joker) | 531 | 88.02% ±10.1 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/duel-joker?window=all) | 531 | 88.02% ±10.1 | +0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 55 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 532 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $595 | 21.4% | 23 | 19.7 | 1.17× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $390 | 14.0% | 20 | 19.7 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $280 | 10.1% | 19 | 19.7 | 0.96× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $262 | 9.4% | 24 | 19.7 | 1.22× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $195 | 7.0% | 16 | 19.7 | 0.81× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $172 | 6.2% | 12 | 19.7 | 0.61× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-well-worn) | 1 in 81 | $146 | 1.7% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 81 | $144 | 1.7% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $141 | 5.1% | 16 | 19.7 | 0.81× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 81 | $140 | 1.7% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $135 | 4.8% | 17 | 19.7 | 0.86× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-factory-new) | 1 in 135 | $116 | 0.8% | 0 | 3.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $109 | 3.9% | 22 | 19.7 | 1.12× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $61.58 | 1.1% | 0 | 9.9 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 108 | $55.92 | 0.5% | 0 | 4.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $55.89 | 2.0% | 16 | 19.7 | 0.81× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 108 | $55.33 | 0.5% | 0 | 4.9 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 108 | $54.53 | 0.5% | 0 | 4.9 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 108 | $52.60 | 0.5% | 0 | 4.9 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 108 | $51.29 | 0.5% | 0 | 4.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $45.89 | 0.8% | 0 | 9.9 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 108 | $43.36 | 0.4% | 0 | 4.9 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 108 | $42.24 | 0.4% | 0 | 4.9 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 108 | $42.11 | 0.4% | 0 | 4.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $39.28 | 0.7% | 0 | 9.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $39.09 | 0.7% | 0 | 9.9 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 81 | $34.38 | 0.4% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-well-worn) | 1 in 81 | $31.38 | 0.4% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 81 | $29.59 | 0.4% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 108 | $25.37 | 0.2% | 0 | 4.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-well-worn) | 1 in 108 | $18.34 | 0.2% | 0 | 4.9 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 108 | $17.93 | 0.2% | 0 | 4.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 108 | $15.76 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-battle-scarred) | 1 in 108 | $15.51 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.9 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-minimal-wear) | 1 in 81 | $14.41 | 0.2% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-minimal-wear) | 1 in 135 | $8.65 | 0.1% | 0 | 3.9 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 108 | $8.27 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.9 | 0.00× |
| [Sticker \| Lotus (Glitter) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lotus-glitter) | 1 in 27 | $7.56 | 0.3% | 16 | 19.7 | 0.81× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 108 | $6.56 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.9 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-well-worn) | 1 in 81 | $5.77 | 0.1% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Battle-Scarred) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-battle-scarred) | 1 in 81 | $4.76 | 0.1% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-field-tested) | 1 in 135 | $4.63 | 0.0% | 0 | 3.9 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 108 | $4.35 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-well-worn) | 1 in 135 | $3.55 | 0.0% | 0 | 3.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-battle-scarred) | 1 in 135 | $3.37 | 0.0% | 0 | 3.9 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Exposure (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-factory-new) | 1 in 135 | $2.36 | 0.0% | 0 | 3.9 | 0.00× |
| [Sticker \| Bolt Strike (Foil) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bolt-strike-foil) | 1 in 27 | $1.89 | 0.1% | 22 | 19.7 | 1.12× |
| [UMP-45 \| Exposure (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-minimal-wear) | 1 in 135 | $1.47 | 0.0% | 0 | 3.9 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Exposure (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-field-tested) | 1 in 135 | $1.32 | 0.0% | 0 | 3.9 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Exposure (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-battle-scarred) | 1 in 135 | $1.24 | 0.0% | 0 | 3.9 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Lush Ruins (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $1.24 | 0.0% | 22 | 19.7 | 1.12× |
| [UMP-45 \| Exposure (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-well-worn) | 1 in 135 | $1.19 | 0.0% | 0 | 3.9 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Army Sheen (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-army-sheen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $1.04 | 0.0% | 19 | 19.7 | 0.96× |
| [AUG \| Surveillance (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $0.95 | 0.0% | 17 | 19.7 | 0.86× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-jungle-dashed-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $0.95 | 0.0% | 17 | 19.7 | 0.86× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/duel-joker`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) Hidden $120 $616 5.13x 2026-11-05 15:23 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) [????LySy™](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%3F%3F%3F%3FLySy%E2%84%A2) $120 $616 5.13x 2026-11-05 01:31 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) [ERCÜMENT ÇÖZER](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/ERC%C3%9CMENT%20%C3%87%C3%96ZER) $122 $616 5.07x 2026-11-04 16:48 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) Hidden $122 $616 5.07x 2026-11-04 16:47 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) Hidden $121 $606 4.99x 2026-11-04 12:39 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) [Naturalson](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Naturalson) $121 $606 4.99x 2026-11-04 11:54 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) Hidden $121 $606 4.99x 2026-11-04 06:57 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) Hidden $121 $606 4.99x 2026-11-03 20:55 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) Hidden $120 $600 5.01x 2026-11-08 22:05 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) Hidden $120 $600 4.99x 2026-11-07 16:22 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=duel-joker)

[UMP-45 | Exposure weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure) Hidden $118 $1.52 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:36 UTC

[AWP | Neo-Noir weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir) [Malutki Kamilek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Malutki%20Kamilek) $118 $53.58 0.46x 2026-11-11 19:36 UTC

[SG 553 | Lush Ruins (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins-factory-new) Hidden $118 $1.24 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:46 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-jungle-dashed-field-tested) [MAZ!](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/MAZ!) $118 $0.95 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:46 UTC

[M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire) Hidden $118 $143 1.22x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC

[AUG | Surveillance (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-field-tested) Hidden $118 $0.95 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC

[UMP-45 | Exposure weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure) Hidden $118 $1.52 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC

[AWP | Ice Coaled weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled) [liv](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/liv) $118 $9.28 0.08x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC

[AWP | Chrome Cannon weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon) Hidden $118 $31.78 0.27x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $118 $135 1.14x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $118 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $118 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $119 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $120 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $119 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $120 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $120 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $120 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $120 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $119 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $120 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $122 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $121 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $121 | 87.50% | 55 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 36.7% classified 7.4% rare 3.7% red 9.6% Mythical 1.5% Ancient 4.6% Covert 0.9% uncommon 4.3% Legendary 1.2% pink 1.9% remarkable 3.7% #8847ff 1.5% violet 3.0% restricted 1.5% #d32ce6 3.7% gray 7.4% Consumer Grade 3.7% grey 3.7% best hit $616 (5.13x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt