---
title: "DUEL case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "DUEL ($4.75) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 55 items with odds, observed 89.05% over 22.8K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/duel
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:11Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [DUEL](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/duel)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · DUEL

A case on Casehug (BATTLE), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/duel?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/duel?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/duel) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/duel?window=all)

Price · $4.75

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $4.16 from 55 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.05% · 22.8K openings, odds method

Variance · 5.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 16.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 67.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 87.98% ±8.12 3,147 openings

7 days · 88.01% ±3.05 20.3K openings

30 days · 89.05% ±2.86 22.8K openings

since tracking started · 89.05% ±2.86 22.8K openings

79.0% 87.8% 96.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/duel?window=24h) | 3,147 | 87.98% ±8.12 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/duel?window=7d) | 20.3K | 88.01% ±3.05 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/duel) | 22.8K | 89.05% ±2.86 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/duel?window=all) | 22.8K | 89.05% ±2.86 | +0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 55 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22.9K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 12,500 | $580 | 1.1% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.55× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $423 | 1.0% | 5 | 2.3 | 2.19× |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 7,143 | $280 | 0.9% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.94× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 6,667 | $261 | 0.9% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.58× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $195 | 0.9% | 6 | 4.6 | 1.31× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 4,348 | $172 | 1.0% | 4 | 5.3 | 0.76× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-well-worn) | 1 in 11,111 | $143 | 0.3% | 0 | 2.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 3,571 | $138 | 0.9% | 2 | 6.4 | 0.31× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $137 | 0.3% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 3,448 | $135 | 0.9% | 12 | 6.6 | 1.81× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 9,091 | $128 | 0.3% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $109 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,857 | $109 | 0.9% | 5 | 8.0 | 0.63× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,167 | $60.22 | 0.3% | 0 | 5.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,250 | $58.55 | 0.2% | 0 | 3.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,493 | $56.82 | 0.9% | 13 | 15.3 | 0.85× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,556 | $55.92 | 0.2% | 0 | 4.1 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,667 | $54.89 | 0.2% | 0 | 3.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 5,263 | $53.73 | 0.2% | 0 | 4.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 5,263 | $53.21 | 0.2% | 0 | 4.3 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 4,762 | $46.69 | 0.2% | 0 | 4.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,632 | $45.56 | 0.4% | 0 | 8.7 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 4,167 | $43.39 | 0.3% | 0 | 5.5 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,704 | $40.36 | 0.3% | 0 | 6.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-field-tested) | 1 in 1,818 | $38.08 | 0.5% | 0 | 12.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 1,515 | $36.15 | 0.6% | 0 | 15.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 3,125 | $35.86 | 0.3% | 0 | 7.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,439 | $31.49 | 0.3% | 0 | 9.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-well-worn) | 1 in 2,128 | $29.59 | 0.3% | 0 | 10.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,704 | $25.62 | 0.2% | 0 | 6.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $18.57 | 0.2% | 0 | 11.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 172 | $17.07 | 2.4% | 0 | 132.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 68 | $16.80 | 5.9% | 0 | 335.7 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-minimal-wear) | 1 in 106 | $14.77 | 3.3% | 0 | 215.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-battle-scarred) | 1 in 48 | $14.15 | 7.0% | 0 | 473.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $8.73 | 3.1% | 0 | 340.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-minimal-wear) | 1 in 110 | $8.57 | 1.9% | 0 | 208.6 | 0.00× |
| [Sticker \| Lotus (Glitter) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lotus-glitter) | 1 in 12 | $7.53 | 14.9% | 1,733 | 1883.5 | 0.92× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 32 | $6.74 | 5.0% | 0 | 705.2 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $5.78 | 7.1% | 0 | 1164.1 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Battle-Scarred) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $4.76 | 8.6% | 0 | 1716.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-field-tested) | 1 in 71 | $4.59 | 1.6% | 0 | 322.9 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 41 | $4.43 | 2.6% | 0 | 556.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $3.52 | 1.7% | 0 | 453.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-battle-scarred) | 1 in 47 | $3.35 | 1.7% | 0 | 485.9 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Exposure (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-factory-new) | 1 in 108 | $2.28 | 0.5% | 0 | 212.5 | 0.00× |
| [Sticker \| Bolt Strike (Foil) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bolt-strike-foil) | 1 in 12 | $1.87 | 3.7% | 1,881 | 1902.3 | 0.99× |
| [UMP-45 \| Exposure (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-minimal-wear) | 1 in 49 | $1.30 | 0.6% | 0 | 466.4 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Exposure (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $1.29 | 0.6% | 0 | 471.5 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Exposure (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-battle-scarred) | 1 in 46 | $1.24 | 0.7% | 0 | 498.4 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Lush Ruins (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins-factory-new) | 1 in 10 | $1.24 | 2.9% | 2,108 | 2241.9 | 0.94× |
| [UMP-45 \| Exposure (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-well-worn) | 1 in 43 | $1.19 | 0.7% | 0 | 527.9 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Army Sheen (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-army-sheen-minimal-wear) | 10.5% | $1.04 | 2.6% | 2,472 | 2405.5 | 1.03× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-jungle-dashed-field-tested) | 10.8% | $0.98 | 2.5% | 2,469 | 2463.3 | 1.00× |
| [AUG \| Surveillance (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-field-tested) | 10.9% | $0.95 | 2.5% | 2,618 | 2484.1 | 1.05× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/duel`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) Hidden $4.75 $595 125.2x 2026-11-10 07:18 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) [????GOAT????](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%3F%3F%3F%3FGOAT%3F%3F%3F%3F) $4.75 $438 92.18x 2026-11-04 17:15 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) [marcinlubikluski](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/marcinlubikluski) $4.75 $437 92.09x 2026-11-03 15:35 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $4.75 $437 91.99x 2026-11-04 11:30 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) [Rexhaz](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Rexhaz) $4.75 $437 91.99x 2026-11-03 22:52 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $4.75 $433 91.22x 2026-11-09 23:55 UTC

[AK-47 | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) Hidden $4.75 $279 58.76x 2026-11-09 15:25 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $4.75 $279 58.68x 2026-11-06 08:44 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $4.75 $261 55.01x 2026-11-11 08:29 UTC

[AK-47 | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) Hidden $4.75 $259 54.58x 2026-11-05 18:17 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=duel)

[MP7 | Smoking Kills weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills) Hidden $4.75 $5.84 1.23x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-jungle-dashed-field-tested) [Witold Pilecki](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Witold%20Pilecki) $4.75 $0.98 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[MP9 | Army Sheen (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-army-sheen-minimal-wear) [Shuriken](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Shuriken) $4.75 $1.04 0.22x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[AWP | Ice Coaled weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled) [兔子 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%E5%85%94%E5%AD%90%20skins.army) $4.75 $7.18 1.51x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-jungle-dashed-field-tested) [Nestle](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Nestle) $4.75 $0.98 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[AK-47 | Point Disarray weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray) [Nestle](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Nestle) $4.75 $15.37 3.24x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[UMP-45 | Exposure weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure) [Nestle](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Nestle) $4.75 $1.35 0.28x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[MP7 | Smoking Kills weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills) [Nestle](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Nestle) $4.75 $5.84 1.23x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[MP7 | Smoking Kills weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills) [Nestle](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Nestle) $4.75 $5.84 1.23x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-jungle-dashed-field-tested) [---b7---](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/---b7---) $4.75 $0.98 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $4.75 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $4.75 | 87.39% | 55 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $4.75 | 87.56% | 55 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $4.75 | 87.78% | 55 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $4.75 | 87.46% | 55 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $4.75 | 87.22% | 55 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $4.75 | 87.46% | 55 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $4.75 | 87.22% | 55 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $4.75 | 87.40% | 55 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $4.75 | 87.94% | 55 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $4.75 | 87.97% | 55 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $4.75 | 87.85% | 55 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $4.75 | 87.80% | 55 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $4.75 | 87.85% | 55 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $4.75 | 87.66% | 55 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $4.75 | 88.00% | 55 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $4.75 | 87.81% | 55 |
| 3 Nov, 15:55 UTC | $4.75 | 87.97% | 55 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $4.75 | 87.31% | 55 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.4% classified 3.6% rare 0.0% red 0.2% Mythical 0.9% Covert 0.0% Ancient 0.1% uncommon 16.3% Legendary 0.9% pink 3.9% remarkable 8.2% #8847ff 3.4% violet 8.7% restricted 3.0% #d32ce6 8.3% gray 20.7% Consumer Grade 10.5% grey 10.8% best hit $595 (125.2x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt