---
title: "EL BOBRITO JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "EL BOBRITO JOKER ($70.76) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 55 items with odds, observed 76.26% over 536 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/el-bobrito-joker
rendered: 2026-11-12T02:56Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [EL BOBRITO JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/el-bobrito-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · EL BOBRITO JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/el-bobrito-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/el-bobrito-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/el-bobrito-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/el-bobrito-joker?window=all)

Price · $70.76

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $61.92 from 55 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 76.26% · 536 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 83 openings · below min

7 days · 79.89% ±13.49 452 openings

30 days · 76.26% ±12.40 536 openings

since tracking started · 76.26% ±12.40 536 openings

42.0% 73.8% 105.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/el-bobrito-joker?window=24h) | 83 | 73.74% ±31.3 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/el-bobrito-joker?window=7d) | 452 | 79.89% ±13.5 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/el-bobrito-joker) | 536 | 76.26% ±12.4 | −1.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/el-bobrito-joker?window=all) | 536 | 76.26% ±12.4 | −1.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 55 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 684 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $430 | 34.8% | 28 | 34.2 | 0.82× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $228 | 18.4% | 33 | 34.2 | 0.96× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $184 | 14.9% | 30 | 34.2 | 0.88× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $83.48 | 2.2% | 0 | 11.4 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-well-worn) | 1 in 60 | $82.27 | 2.2% | 0 | 11.4 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $80.78 | 2.2% | 0 | 11.4 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-battle-scarred) | 1 in 60 | $74.64 | 2.0% | 0 | 11.4 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) | 1 in 60 | $72.41 | 1.9% | 0 | 11.4 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-battle-scarred) | 1 in 60 | $71.83 | 1.9% | 0 | 11.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-well-worn) | 1 in 60 | $59.23 | 1.6% | 0 | 11.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $56.50 | 1.5% | 0 | 11.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) | 1 in 60 | $52.30 | 1.4% | 0 | 11.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-well-worn) | 1 in 60 | $44.82 | 1.2% | 0 | 11.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 60 | $44.56 | 1.2% | 0 | 11.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 60 | $44.12 | 1.2% | 0 | 11.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $42.49 | 1.1% | 0 | 11.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $42.46 | 1.1% | 0 | 11.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-battle-scarred) | 1 in 60 | $38.68 | 1.0% | 0 | 11.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $26.42 | 1.1% | 0 | 17.1 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Airlock (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $25.14 | 0.5% | 0 | 8.6 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $20.72 | 0.6% | 0 | 11.4 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-well-worn) | 1 in 60 | $20.05 | 0.5% | 0 | 11.4 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-battle-scarred) | 1 in 60 | $19.98 | 0.5% | 0 | 11.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-well-worn) | 1 in 60 | $15.49 | 0.4% | 0 | 11.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $15.25 | 0.4% | 0 | 11.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-battle-scarred) | 1 in 60 | $15.10 | 0.4% | 0 | 11.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $14.43 | 0.6% | 0 | 17.1 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Airlock (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $14.32 | 0.3% | 0 | 8.6 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Airlock (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $14.15 | 0.3% | 0 | 8.6 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Airlock (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $13.02 | 0.3% | 0 | 8.6 | 0.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| The Executioner (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-the-executioner-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $12.06 | 1.0% | 36 | 34.2 | 1.05× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $8.06 | 0.2% | 0 | 8.6 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $4.16 | 0.1% | 0 | 8.6 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $3.99 | 0.3% | 38 | 34.2 | 1.11× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 80 | $3.98 | 0.1% | 0 | 8.6 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $3.90 | 0.1% | 0 | 8.6 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Heat Treated (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-heat-treated-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $3.32 | 0.3% | 36 | 34.2 | 1.05× |
| [M4A4 \| Choppa (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1.32 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Rising Sun (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-sun-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $1.16 | 0.0% | 0 | 8.6 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1.15 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-tosai-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $0.83 | 0.0% | 0 | 8.6 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Rising Sun (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-sun-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $0.55 | 0.0% | 0 | 8.6 | 0.00× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-tosai-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $0.54 | 0.0% | 0 | 8.6 | 0.00× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-tosai-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $0.52 | 0.0% | 0 | 8.6 | 0.00× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-tosai-battle-scarred) | 1 in 80 | $0.50 | 0.0% | 0 | 8.6 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Rising Sun (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-sun-battle-scarred) | 1 in 80 | $0.49 | 0.0% | 0 | 8.6 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Rising Sun (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-sun-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $0.44 | 0.0% | 0 | 8.6 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $0.24 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Choppa (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $0.23 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $0.14 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $0.14 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $0.14 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Choppa (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $0.09 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Choppa (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $0.06 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Choppa (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $0.06 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/el-bobrito-joker`, 12 Nov, 02:49 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=el-bobrito-joker)

[MP9 | Airlock weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock) Hidden $70.57 $16.74 0.24x 2026-11-12 00:10 UTC

[M4A4 | Choppa weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa) Hidden $70.57 $0.35 0.00x 2026-11-12 00:10 UTC

[MP9 | Airlock weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock) [????LySy™](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%3F%3F%3F%3FLySy%E2%84%A2) $70.57 $16.74 0.24x 2026-11-12 00:10 UTC

[AWP | Hyper Beast weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast) Hidden $70.57 $42.41 0.60x 2026-11-11 21:49 UTC

[USP-S | PC-GRN weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn) Hidden $70.57 $0.35 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:49 UTC

[Zeus x27 | Tosai weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-tosai) Hidden $70.57 $0.60 0.01x 2026-11-11 21:49 UTC

[AK-47 | Neon Rider weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider) [kieron](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/kieron) $70.57 $54.90 0.78x 2026-11-11 21:49 UTC

[Glock-18 | Snack Attack weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack) Hidden $70.57 $20.25 0.29x 2026-11-11 18:12 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $70.57 $429 6.08x 2026-11-11 18:12 UTC

[G3SG1 | The Executioner (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-the-executioner-field-tested) Hidden $70.57 $12.13 0.17x 2026-11-11 18:12 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 12 Nov, 02:49 UTC | $70.76 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $70.57 | 87.51% | 55 |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $70.51 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $68.68 | 87.51% | 55 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $72.95 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $73.02 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $72.20 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $72.93 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $72.99 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $72.93 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $72.99 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $73.03 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $72.93 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $72.10 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $71.86 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $72.78 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $72.92 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $71.86 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $72.78 | 87.50% | 55 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 28.3% extraordinary 5.0% red 6.7% classified 24.2% pink 8.3% #d32ee6 1.3% Classified 1.3% violet 11.2% blue 4.0% Mythical 2.5% #4b69ff 4.0% #8847ff 1.3% Rare 2.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt