---
title: "EL BOBRITO case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "EL BOBRITO ($3.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 55 items with odds, observed 85.32% over 13.3K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/el-bobrito
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:19Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [EL BOBRITO](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/el-bobrito)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · EL BOBRITO

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/el-bobrito?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/el-bobrito?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/el-bobrito) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/el-bobrito?window=all)

Price · $3.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $2.63 from 55 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.32% · 13.3K openings, odds method

Variance · 8.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 11.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 64.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 87.20% ±13.10 1,960 openings

7 days · 85.50% ±5.63 10.9K openings

30 days · 85.32% ±5.06 13.3K openings

since tracking started · 85.32% ±5.06 13.3K openings

73.5% 87.3% 101.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/el-bobrito?window=24h) | 1,960 | 87.20% ±13.1 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/el-bobrito?window=7d) | 10.9K | 85.50% ±5.63 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/el-bobrito) | 13.3K | 85.32% ±5.06 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/el-bobrito?window=all) | 13.3K | 85.32% ±5.06 | −0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 55 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 13.3K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 6,667 | $423 | 2.4% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.50× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 3,846 | $232 | 2.3% | 2 | 3.5 | 0.58× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-well-worn) | 1 in 3,030 | $184 | 2.3% | 6 | 4.4 | 1.37× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) | 1 in 4,348 | $83.48 | 0.7% | 0 | 3.1 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 4,167 | $80.83 | 0.7% | 0 | 3.2 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,846 | $77.91 | 0.8% | 0 | 3.5 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,571 | $73.54 | 0.8% | 0 | 3.7 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) | 1 in 3,448 | $72.97 | 0.8% | 0 | 3.8 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-well-worn) | 1 in 3,333 | $72.60 | 0.8% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-well-worn) | 1 in 3,030 | $59.09 | 0.7% | 0 | 4.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,703 | $55.23 | 0.8% | 0 | 4.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 2,632 | $54.85 | 0.8% | 0 | 5.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) | 1 in 2,273 | $43.38 | 0.7% | 0 | 5.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 2,174 | $42.72 | 0.7% | 0 | 6.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-well-worn) | 1 in 2,174 | $42.35 | 0.7% | 0 | 6.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,083 | $42.22 | 0.8% | 0 | 6.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 2,083 | $41.83 | 0.8% | 0 | 6.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,724 | $37.58 | 0.8% | 0 | 7.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,087 | $25.62 | 0.9% | 0 | 12.2 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Airlock (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-factory-new) | 1 in 2,703 | $25.14 | 0.4% | 0 | 4.9 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-field-tested) | 1 in 1,149 | $21.70 | 0.7% | 0 | 11.5 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-well-worn) | 1 in 990 | $20.03 | 0.8% | 0 | 13.4 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-battle-scarred) | 1 in 980 | $19.97 | 0.8% | 0 | 13.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 469 | $16.80 | 1.4% | 0 | 28.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-well-worn) | 1 in 806 | $15.65 | 0.7% | 0 | 16.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 787 | $15.51 | 0.8% | 0 | 16.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-battle-scarred) | 1 in 741 | $15.02 | 0.8% | 0 | 17.9 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Airlock (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 893 | $14.35 | 0.6% | 0 | 14.9 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Airlock (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-field-tested) | 1 in 862 | $14.13 | 0.6% | 0 | 15.4 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Airlock (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-well-worn) | 1 in 746 | $13.13 | 0.7% | 0 | 17.8 | 0.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| The Executioner (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-the-executioner-field-tested) | 1 in 206 | $12.13 | 2.2% | 68 | 64.5 | 1.05× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $8.17 | 29.1% | 0 | 1241.5 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-well-worn) | 1 in 47 | $4.23 | 3.4% | 0 | 281.1 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $4.21 | 12.1% | 903 | 998.9 | 0.90× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $4.19 | 3.4% | 0 | 286.6 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 46 | $4.19 | 3.4% | 0 | 286.6 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Heat Treated (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-heat-treated-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10 | $3.32 | 12.1% | 998 | 1266.6 | 0.79× |
| [M4A4 \| Choppa (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-factory-new) | 1 in 645 | $1.30 | 0.1% | 0 | 20.6 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-factory-new) | 1 in 385 | $1.18 | 0.1% | 0 | 34.5 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Rising Sun (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-sun-minimal-wear) | 1 in 96 | $1.12 | 0.4% | 0 | 138.0 | 0.00× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-tosai-minimal-wear) | 1 in 64 | $0.83 | 0.5% | 0 | 208.9 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Rising Sun (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-sun-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $0.54 | 0.6% | 0 | 383.1 | 0.00× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-tosai-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $0.52 | 0.6% | 0 | 401.8 | 0.00× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-tosai-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $0.50 | 0.6% | 0 | 424.5 | 0.00× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-tosai-battle-scarred) | 1 in 31 | $0.50 | 0.6% | 0 | 424.5 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Rising Sun (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-sun-well-worn) | 1 in 28 | $0.46 | 0.6% | 0 | 479.5 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Rising Sun (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-sun-battle-scarred) | 1 in 28 | $0.46 | 0.6% | 0 | 479.5 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-minimal-wear) | 1 in 41 | $0.24 | 0.2% | 0 | 319.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Choppa (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-minimal-wear) | 1 in 73 | $0.23 | 0.1% | 0 | 181.2 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $0.14 | 0.3% | 0 | 680.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.14 | 0.3% | 0 | 680.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $0.14 | 0.3% | 0 | 680.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Choppa (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.09 | 0.2% | 0 | 673.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Choppa (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $0.06 | 0.2% | 0 | 1183.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Choppa (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $0.06 | 0.2% | 0 | 1187.9 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/el-bobrito`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $3.00 $433 144.4x 2026-11-07 21:17 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $3.00 $254 84.77x 2026-11-05 19:26 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $3.00 $252 84.15x 2026-11-04 17:46 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Fade (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-well-worn) Hidden $3.00 $190 63.42x 2026-11-08 21:33 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Fade (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-well-worn) Hidden $3.00 $188 62.65x 2026-11-03 16:31 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Fade (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-well-worn) [reequ](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/reequ) $3.00 $187 62.43x 2026-11-09 21:09 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Fade (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-well-worn) Hidden $3.00 $184 61.35x 2026-11-11 15:04 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Fade (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-well-worn) Hidden $3.00 $184 61.28x 2026-11-08 08:43 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Fade (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-well-worn) Hidden $3.00 $179 59.74x 2026-11-10 15:30 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=el-bobrito)

[Nova | Rising Sun weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-sun) Hidden $3.00 $0.54 0.18x 2026-11-11 18:19 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Heat Treated (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-heat-treated-minimal-wear) [dzanekkk](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/dzanekkk) $3.00 $3.32 1.11x 2026-11-11 18:19 UTC

[M4A4 | Choppa weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa) Hidden $3.00 $0.08 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:19 UTC

[Nova | Rising Sun weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-sun) Hidden $3.00 $0.54 0.18x 2026-11-11 18:19 UTC

[USP-S | Cortex weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex) [Olej CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Olej%20CS2.ME) $3.00 $6.55 2.18x 2026-11-11 18:19 UTC

[USP-S | Cortex weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex) Hidden $3.00 $6.55 2.18x 2026-11-11 18:15 UTC

[USP-S | PC-GRN weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn) Hidden $3.00 $0.17 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:15 UTC

[Zeus x27 | Tosai weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-tosai) [Cyka blyat skins.army SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Cyka%20blyat%20skins.army%20SKINS) $3.00 $0.55 0.18x 2026-11-11 18:15 UTC

[USP-S | Cortex weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex) Hidden $3.00 $6.55 2.18x 2026-11-11 18:14 UTC

[Nova | Rising Sun weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-sun) [I can\_#039;t shootingCS2.MEskins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/I%20can_%23039%3Bt%20shootingCS2.MEskins.army) $3.00 $0.54 0.18x 2026-11-11 18:14 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $3.00 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $3.00 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $3.00 | 87.81% | 55 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $3.00 | 87.69% | 55 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $3.00 | 87.69% | 55 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $3.00 | 87.94% | 55 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $3.00 | 87.10% | 55 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $3.00 | 86.96% | 55 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $3.00 | 87.56% | 55 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $3.00 | 87.73% | 55 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $3.00 | 87.95% | 55 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $3.00 | 87.42% | 55 |
| 3 Nov, 15:55 UTC | $3.00 | 87.74% | 55 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $3.00 | 86.88% | 55 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.4% extraordinary 0.0% red 0.2% classified 15.2% pink 7.7% #d32ee6 0.1% Classified 2.1% violet 24.2% blue 23.1% #4b69ff 15.6% Mythical 3.9% #8847ff 3.6% Rare 3.8% best hit $433 (144.4x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt