---
title: "EL DORADO JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "EL DORADO JOKER ($761.84) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.50% from 54 items with odds, observed 91.82% over 1,295 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/el-dorado-joker
rendered: 2026-11-12T02:55Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [EL DORADO JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/el-dorado-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · EL DORADO JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/el-dorado-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/el-dorado-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/el-dorado-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/el-dorado-joker?window=all)

Price · $761.84

Advertised RTP · 90.50% · EV $689.47 from 54 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.82% · 1,295 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 16.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 79.23% ±17.78 123 openings

7 days · 91.45% ±5.90 1,115 openings

30 days · 91.82% ±5.48 1,295 openings

since tracking started · 91.82% ±5.48 1,295 openings

61.0% 79.5% 98.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/el-dorado-joker?window=24h) | 123 | 79.23% ±17.8 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/el-dorado-joker?window=7d) | 1,115 | 91.45% ±5.90 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/el-dorado-joker) | 1,295 | 91.82% ±5.48 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/el-dorado-joker?window=all) | 1,295 | 91.82% ±5.48 | +0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 54 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,318 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 42 | $3,139 | 10.8% | 31 | 31.4 | 0.99× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 42 | $2,724 | 9.4% | 37 | 31.4 | 1.18× |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 42 | $2,269 | 7.8% | 36 | 31.4 | 1.15× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 42 | $2,093 | 7.2% | 30 | 31.4 | 0.96× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 42 | $1,730 | 6.0% | 35 | 31.4 | 1.12× |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 42 | $1,657 | 5.7% | 28 | 31.4 | 0.89× |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 42 | $1,490 | 5.1% | 26 | 31.4 | 0.83× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 42 | $1,310 | 4.5% | 31 | 31.4 | 0.99× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 42 | $1,139 | 3.9% | 38 | 31.4 | 1.21× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 42 | $1,067 | 3.7% | 34 | 31.4 | 1.08× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 42 | $1,040 | 3.6% | 37 | 31.4 | 1.18× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 42 | $842 | 2.9% | 30 | 31.4 | 0.96× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 42 | $740 | 2.6% | 27 | 31.4 | 0.86× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 42 | $640 | 2.2% | 28 | 31.4 | 0.89× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 42 | $628 | 2.2% | 18 | 31.4 | 0.57× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 42 | $610 | 2.1% | 28 | 31.4 | 0.89× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 42 | $607 | 2.1% | 22 | 31.4 | 0.70× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 42 | $584 | 2.0% | 35 | 31.4 | 1.12× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 42 | $508 | 1.8% | 31 | 31.4 | 0.99× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 42 | $489 | 1.7% | 36 | 31.4 | 1.15× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · sunny · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 42 | $462 | 1.6% | 41 | 31.4 | 1.31× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 42 | $383 | 1.3% | 19 | 31.4 | 0.61× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 42 | $306 | 1.1% | 32 | 31.4 | 1.02× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 42 | $306 | 1.1% | 22 | 31.4 | 0.70× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 42 | $291 | 1.0% | 33 | 31.4 | 1.05× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 42 | $262 | 0.9% | 32 | 31.4 | 1.02× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 42 | $244 | 0.8% | 29 | 31.4 | 0.92× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 42 | $228 | 0.8% | 36 | 31.4 | 1.15× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 42 | $193 | 0.7% | 31 | 31.4 | 0.99× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 42 | $175 | 0.6% | 28 | 31.4 | 0.89× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 42 | $152 | 0.5% | 35 | 31.4 | 1.12× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 42 | $150 | 0.5% | 26 | 31.4 | 0.83× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 42 | $119 | 0.4% | 27 | 31.4 | 0.86× |
| [USP-S \| Spiral Glitch (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-spiral-glitch-factory-new) | 1 in 210 | $94.80 | 0.1% | 0 | 6.3 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $83.63 | 0.3% | 24 | 31.4 | 0.76× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 84 | $71.67 | 0.1% | 0 | 15.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-factory-new) | 1 in 210 | $64.17 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.3 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 84 | $57.35 | 0.1% | 0 | 15.7 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Spiral Glitch (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-spiral-glitch-minimal-wear) | 1 in 210 | $51.70 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.3 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $49.41 | 0.2% | 41 | 31.4 | 1.31× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-field-tested) | 1 in 84 | $48.59 | 0.1% | 0 | 15.7 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 84 | $41.25 | 0.1% | 0 | 15.7 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $37.41 | 0.1% | 29 | 31.4 | 0.92× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 210 | $30.83 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Spiral Glitch (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-spiral-glitch-field-tested) | 1 in 210 | $30.32 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.3 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Deathgaze (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-deathgaze-factory-new) | 1 in 84 | $24.15 | 0.0% | 0 | 15.7 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Spiral Glitch (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-spiral-glitch-well-worn) | 1 in 210 | $22.64 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Spiral Glitch (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-spiral-glitch-battle-scarred) | 1 in 210 | $22.22 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-field-tested) | 1 in 210 | $16.96 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-factory-new) | 1 in 84 | $16.14 | 0.0% | 0 | 15.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-well-worn) | 1 in 210 | $13.16 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.3 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Deathgaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-deathgaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 84 | $12.50 | 0.0% | 0 | 15.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 210 | $10.30 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 84 | $9.53 | 0.0% | 0 | 15.7 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/el-dorado-joker`, 12 Nov, 02:49 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $778 $3,155 4.05x 2026-11-07 20:58 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $778 $3,155 4.05x 2026-11-07 20:58 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $778 $3,155 4.05x 2026-11-07 20:58 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $778 $3,155 4.05x 2026-11-07 20:57 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [Rysiu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Rysiu) $780 $3,155 4.05x 2026-11-07 13:16 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $780 $3,155 4.05x 2026-11-06 20:51 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [RUDSONCS](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/RUDSONCS) $780 $3,155 4.05x 2026-11-06 19:19 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $780 $3,155 4.05x 2026-11-06 18:57 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $784 $3,153 4.02x 2026-11-04 21:07 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $784 $3,153 4.02x 2026-11-04 21:05 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=el-dorado-joker)

[Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested) Hidden $762 $83.63 0.11x 2026-11-11 20:36 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [mateous](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/mateous) $762 $628 0.82x 2026-11-11 20:36 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $762 $2,724 3.58x 2026-11-11 19:11 UTC

[AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge) Hidden $762 $60.13 0.08x 2026-11-11 19:11 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $762 $262 0.34x 2026-11-11 19:11 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [Radziu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Radziu) $762 $193 0.25x 2026-11-11 19:11 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $762 $489 0.64x 2026-11-11 19:11 UTC

[FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-field-tested) Hidden $762 $49.41 0.06x 2026-11-11 19:11 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Temukau (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-temukau-field-tested) Hidden $762 $37.41 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:11 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) [Radziu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Radziu) $762 $489 0.64x 2026-11-11 19:11 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $762 | 90.50% | 54 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $763 | 90.50% | 54 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $764 | 90.50% | 54 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $772 | 90.50% | 54 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $764 | 90.50% | 54 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $765 | 90.50% | 54 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $769 | 90.50% | 54 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $773 | 90.50% | 54 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $772 | 90.50% | 54 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $778 | 90.50% | 54 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $780 | 90.50% | 54 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $778 | 90.50% | 54 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $780 | 90.50% | 54 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $782 | 90.50% | 54 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $780 | 90.50% | 54 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $784 | 90.50% | 54 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 51.2% sunny 23.8% gold 2.4% Covert 4.8% #ffd700 2.4% pink 7.9% #eb4b4b 2.4% Legendary 4.0% Ancient 1.2% best hit $3,155 (4.05x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.50 on average: an expected loss of $9.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt