---
title: "EL DORADO case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "EL DORADO ($100.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 54 items with odds, observed 87.83% over 8,234 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/el-dorado
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:13Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [EL DORADO](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/el-dorado)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · EL DORADO

A case on Casehug (BESTSELLERS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/el-dorado?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/el-dorado?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/el-dorado) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/el-dorado?window=all)

Price · $100.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $87.50 from 54 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.83% · 8,234 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 65.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 86.03% ±6.86 1,198 openings

7 days · 87.62% ±2.73 7,671 openings

30 days · 87.83% ±2.63 8,234 openings

since tracking started · 87.83% ±2.63 8,234 openings

78.5% 86.0% 93.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/el-dorado?window=24h) | 1,198 | 86.03% ±6.86 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/el-dorado?window=7d) | 7,671 | 87.62% ±2.73 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/el-dorado) | 8,234 | 87.83% ±2.63 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/el-dorado?window=all) | 8,234 | 87.83% ±2.63 | +0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 54 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,238 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 10,000 | $3,140 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,738 | 0.3% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 5,000 | $2,296 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.61× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,956 | 0.4% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.21× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,729 | 0.4% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.21× |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,648 | 0.4% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.82× |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,635 | 0.4% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,339 | 0.5% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.81× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,123 | 0.4% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.81× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,071 | 0.4% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.40× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $1,044 | 0.5% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.61× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 2,500 | $842 | 0.4% | 5 | 3.3 | 1.52× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 2,000 | $724 | 0.4% | 3 | 4.1 | 0.73× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 1,667 | $640 | 0.4% | 8 | 4.9 | 1.62× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,667 | $627 | 0.4% | 6 | 4.9 | 1.21× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,667 | $621 | 0.4% | 4 | 4.9 | 0.81× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $607 | 0.4% | 6 | 4.9 | 1.21× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 1,667 | $594 | 0.4% | 6 | 4.9 | 1.21× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 1,429 | $506 | 0.4% | 12 | 5.8 | 2.08× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,429 | $492 | 0.4% | 4 | 5.8 | 0.69× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · sunny · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 1,250 | $462 | 0.4% | 4 | 6.6 | 0.61× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 109 | $369 | 3.9% | 17 | 75.8 | 0.22× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 90 | $306 | 3.9% | 92 | 91.4 | 1.01× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 89 | $302 | 3.9% | 125 | 92.3 | 1.35× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 84 | $285 | 3.9% | 95 | 98.0 | 0.97× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 77 | $261 | 3.9% | 112 | 107.1 | 1.05× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 70 | $249 | 4.1% | 107 | 117.8 | 0.91× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 64 | $228 | 4.1% | 180 | 128.5 | 1.40× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 55 | $195 | 4.1% | 168 | 149.9 | 1.12× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 49 | $175 | 4.1% | 167 | 168.1 | 0.99× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 43 | $152 | 4.1% | 248 | 192.8 | 1.29× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 42 | $151 | 4.1% | 260 | 194.4 | 1.34× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 16.5% | $119 | 22.4% | 1,211 | 1359.3 | 0.89× |
| [USP-S \| Spiral Glitch (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-spiral-glitch-factory-new) | 1 in 161 | $94.83 | 0.7% | 0 | 51.1 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $84.20 | 4.6% | 386 | 390.5 | 0.99× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 48 | $67.35 | 1.6% | 0 | 171.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $64.23 | 0.2% | 0 | 24.7 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $54.89 | 1.6% | 0 | 205.1 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Spiral Glitch (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-spiral-glitch-minimal-wear) | 1 in 133 | $51.73 | 0.4% | 0 | 61.8 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $49.23 | 3.3% | 487 | 484.4 | 1.01× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $45.17 | 1.9% | 0 | 299.9 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $43.39 | 1.7% | 0 | 284.2 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $40.05 | 2.9% | 519 | 525.6 | 0.99× |
| [USP-S \| Spiral Glitch (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-spiral-glitch-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $31.55 | 0.5% | 0 | 122.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 122 | $31.38 | 0.3% | 0 | 67.6 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Deathgaze (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-deathgaze-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $23.35 | 0.7% | 0 | 229.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Spiral Glitch (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-spiral-glitch-well-worn) | 1 in 44 | $23.23 | 0.6% | 0 | 188.7 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Spiral Glitch (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-spiral-glitch-battle-scarred) | 1 in 41 | $22.35 | 0.6% | 0 | 199.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $17.60 | 0.4% | 0 | 152.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $16.28 | 0.6% | 0 | 266.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-well-worn) | 1 in 36 | $13.14 | 0.4% | 0 | 229.0 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Deathgaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-deathgaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $12.65 | 0.9% | 0 | 540.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 27 | $10.77 | 0.5% | 0 | 302.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $8.90 | 0.7% | 0 | 595.6 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/el-dorado`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $100 $2,808 28.08x 2026-11-03 20:20 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $100 $2,738 27.38x 2026-11-11 00:12 UTC

[★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $100 $2,314 23.14x 2026-11-09 20:57 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [XD](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/XD) $100 $1,956 19.56x 2026-11-11 01:32 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [CODE:MITWAL](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/CODE%3AMITWAL) $100 $1,955 19.55x 2026-11-04 22:07 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [kazik5](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/kazik5) $100 $1,733 17.33x 2026-11-10 18:56 UTC

[★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $100 $1,696 16.96x 2026-11-05 09:41 UTC

[★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $100 $1,696 16.96x 2026-11-04 20:12 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $100 $1,686 16.86x 2026-11-04 17:26 UTC

[★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $100 $1,680 16.80x 2026-11-06 22:45 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=el-dorado)

[★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $100 $119 1.19x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $100 $152 1.52x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[AK-47 | Ice Coaled weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled) [SoBoL BuK](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/SoBoL%20BuK) $100 $11.18 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[AK-47 | Ice Coaled weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled) Hidden $100 $11.18 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC

[Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested) Hidden $100 $84.20 0.84x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC

[AK-47 | Ice Coaled weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled) [Witold Pilecki](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Witold%20Pilecki) $100 $11.18 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Printstream weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream) Hidden $100 $48.21 0.48x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC

[AK-47 | Ice Coaled weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled) Hidden $100 $11.18 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $100 $151 1.51x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC

[FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-field-tested) [Wuj WodzU](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Wuj%20WodzU) $100 $49.23 0.49x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $100 | 87.50% | 54 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $100 | 87.91% | 54 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $100 | 87.68% | 54 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $100 | 87.45% | 54 |
| 9 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $100 | 87.69% | 54 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $100 | 87.49% | 54 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $100 | 87.69% | 54 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $100 | 87.56% | 54 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $100 | 87.17% | 54 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $100 | 88.04% | 54 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $100 | 87.22% | 54 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $100 | 87.59% | 54 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $100 | 86.94% | 54 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $100 | 87.08% | 54 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $100 | 87.91% | 54 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $100 | 87.89% | 54 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $100 | 87.77% | 54 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 25.4% sunny 6.0% gold 0.0% Covert 16.5% #ffd700 1.1% pink 29.1% #eb4b4b 4.7% Legendary 13.5% Ancient 3.5% best hit $2,808 (28.08x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt