---
title: "EMPRESS JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "EMPRESS JOKER ($76.15) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 46 items with odds, observed 87.60% over 359 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/empress-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:02Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [EMPRESS JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/empress-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · EMPRESS JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/empress-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/empress-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/empress-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/empress-joker?window=all)

Price · $76.15

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $66.63 from 46 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.60% · 359 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 83.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 81 openings · below min

7 days · 84.14% ±20.17 333 openings

30 days · 87.60% ±19.43 359 openings

since tracking started · 87.60% ±19.43 359 openings

24.0% 65.8% 107.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/empress-joker?window=24h) | 81 | 65.09% ±40.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/empress-joker?window=7d) | 333 | 84.14% ±20.2 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/empress-joker) | 359 | 87.60% ±19.4 | +0.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/empress-joker?window=all) | 359 | 87.60% ±19.4 | +0.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 46 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 433 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $580 | 48.4% | 25 | 24.1 | 1.04× |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $280 | 7.8% | 0 | 8.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) | 1 in 54 | $256 | 7.1% | 0 | 8.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 54 | $243 | 6.7% | 0 | 8.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 54 | $222 | 6.2% | 0 | 8.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $137 | 3.8% | 0 | 8.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $131 | 3.6% | 0 | 8.0 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $55.89 | 4.7% | 23 | 24.1 | 0.96× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $43.38 | 1.2% | 0 | 8.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-well-worn) | 1 in 54 | $42.35 | 1.2% | 0 | 8.0 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Electric Hive (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $39.41 | 1.6% | 0 | 12.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-battle-scarred) | 1 in 54 | $37.58 | 1.0% | 0 | 8.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $37.36 | 3.1% | 19 | 24.1 | 0.79× |
| [AWP \| Electric Hive (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $31.38 | 1.3% | 0 | 12.0 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Directive (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $9.67 | 0.4% | 0 | 12.0 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $5.95 | 0.2% | 0 | 12.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $4.73 | 0.1% | 0 | 8.0 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $4.13 | 0.2% | 0 | 12.0 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-well-worn) | 1 in 54 | $3.81 | 0.1% | 0 | 8.0 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $3.81 | 0.1% | 0 | 8.0 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-battle-scarred) | 1 in 54 | $3.68 | 0.1% | 0 | 8.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-minimal-wear) | 1 in 72 | $3.64 | 0.1% | 0 | 6.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $3.50 | 0.1% | 0 | 8.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-battle-scarred) | 1 in 54 | $3.30 | 0.1% | 0 | 8.0 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Highwayman (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-highwayman-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $2.51 | 0.2% | 24 | 24.1 | 1.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Weasel (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-weasel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $1.91 | 0.1% | 0 | 12.0 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Weasel (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-weasel-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $1.58 | 0.1% | 0 | 12.0 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-angel-eyes-minimal-wear) | 1 in 72 | $1.58 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-field-tested) | 1 in 72 | $1.45 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.0 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Directive (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $1.39 | 0.1% | 0 | 12.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-well-worn) | 1 in 72 | $1.39 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-battle-scarred) | 1 in 72 | $1.16 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-minimal-wear) | 1 in 72 | $1.07 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-field-tested) | 1 in 72 | $0.69 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-battle-scarred) | 1 in 72 | $0.69 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.0 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-angel-eyes-field-tested) | 1 in 72 | $0.67 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-well-worn) | 1 in 72 | $0.67 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.0 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-angel-eyes-well-worn) | 1 in 72 | $0.57 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.0 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-angel-eyes-battle-scarred) | 1 in 72 | $0.52 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| 27 (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-27-minimal-wear) | 1 in 72 | $0.47 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| 27 (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-27-field-tested) | 1 in 72 | $0.35 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| 27 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-27-battle-scarred) | 1 in 72 | $0.29 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| 27 (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-27-well-worn) | 1 in 72 | $0.26 | 0.0% | 0 | 6.0 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Sure Grip (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-sure-grip-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $0.14 | 0.0% | 0 | 8.0 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Sure Grip (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-sure-grip-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $0.06 | 0.0% | 0 | 8.0 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Sure Grip (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-sure-grip-battle-scarred) | 1 in 54 | $0.05 | 0.0% | 0 | 8.0 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/empress-joker`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) Hidden $78.25 $621 7.94x 2026-11-03 06:47 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) Hidden $78.81 $619 7.86x 2026-11-03 15:04 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) Hidden $78.47 $616 7.86x 2026-11-05 15:32 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) [Johnny SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Johnny%20SKINS) $78.33 $616 7.87x 2026-11-04 23:05 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) Hidden $78.33 $616 7.87x 2026-11-04 20:54 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) Hidden $78.33 $616 7.87x 2026-11-04 17:15 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) Hidden $77.91 $606 7.77x 2026-11-04 12:41 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) [leosia\_krolowa](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/leosia_krolowa) $77.91 $606 7.77x 2026-11-04 12:41 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) [good](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/good) $77.91 $606 7.77x 2026-11-03 19:27 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) [ziomek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/ziomek) $77.53 $604 7.80x 2026-11-09 17:24 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=empress-joker)

[Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-angel-eyes) [Zakoleon](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Zakoleon) $76.65 $0.83 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:02 UTC

[USP-S | Ticket to Hell weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell) Hidden $76.65 $0.78 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:53 UTC

[AK-47 | Inheritance weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance) Hidden $76.65 $40.64 0.53x 2026-11-11 18:53 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-highwayman-minimal-wear) [Bananos](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Bananos) $76.65 $2.51 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:53 UTC

[MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-minimal-wear) Hidden $76.65 $55.89 0.73x 2026-11-11 18:53 UTC

[AK-47 | The Empress weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress) Hidden $76.65 $176 2.29x 2026-11-11 18:53 UTC

[AWP | Duality weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality) [Bananos](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Bananos) $76.65 $3.74 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:53 UTC

[USP-S | 27 weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-27) [sztamaxyz](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/sztamaxyz) $76.15 $0.34 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:50 UTC

[AK-47 | Inheritance weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance) [NalejSobieCosTotkowy CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/NalejSobieCosTotkowy%20CS2.ME) $76.15 $41.10 0.54x 2026-11-11 14:50 UTC

[AK-47 | Inheritance weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance) [\_quot;S\_quot; KING](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/_quot%3BS_quot%3B%20KING) $76.15 $41.10 0.54x 2026-11-11 14:50 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $76.15 | 87.50% | 46 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $76.65 | 87.50% | 46 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $76.57 | 87.50% | 46 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $77.53 | 87.50% | 46 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $77.20 | 87.50% | 46 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $77.35 | 87.50% | 46 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $77.85 | 87.50% | 46 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $77.72 | 87.50% | 46 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $77.85 | 87.50% | 46 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $77.60 | 87.50% | 46 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $78.47 | 87.50% | 46 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $78.33 | 87.50% | 46 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $77.91 | 87.50% | 46 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 18.5% classified 13.9% restricted 23.1% red 3.7% Legendary 2.8% pink 5.6% Mythical 8.8% #8847ff 5.6% violet 6.9% blue 5.6% milspec 3.7% #4b69ff 1.9% best hit $621 (7.94x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt