---
title: "EMPRESS case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "EMPRESS ($1.50) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 46 items with odds, observed 82.19% over 26.9K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/empress
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [EMPRESS](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/empress)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · EMPRESS

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/empress?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/empress?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/empress) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/empress?window=all)

Price · $1.50

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $1.31 from 46 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 82.19% · 26.9K openings, odds method

Variance · 13.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 16.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 67.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 88.21% ±13.03 3,049 openings

7 days · 82.08% ±4.82 23.3K openings

30 days · 82.19% ±4.50 26.9K openings

since tracking started · 82.19% ±4.50 26.9K openings

74.5% 88.3% 102.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.73% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (77.69% – 86.69%, 26,934 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/empress?window=24h) | 3,049 | 88.21% ±13.0 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/empress?window=7d) | 23.3K | 82.08% ±4.82 | −2.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/empress) | 26.9K | 82.19% ±4.50 | −2.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/empress?window=all) | 26.9K | 82.19% ±4.50 | −2.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 46 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 27K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 33,333 | $580 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 33,333 | $280 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $256 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11,111 | $243 | 1.7% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 12,500 | $222 | 1.4% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25,000 | $137 | 0.4% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $131 | 0.5% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $55.89 | 0.9% | 4 | 5.4 | 0.74× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $43.38 | 1.7% | 0 | 13.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-well-worn) | 1 in 5,882 | $42.35 | 0.5% | 0 | 4.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Electric Hive (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $39.41 | 1.5% | 0 | 13.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,667 | $37.58 | 1.7% | 0 | 16.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-field-tested) | 1 in 909 | $37.36 | 3.1% | 34 | 29.7 | 1.15× |
| [AWP \| Electric Hive (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-field-tested) | 1 in 1,429 | $31.38 | 1.7% | 0 | 18.9 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Directive (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $9.67 | 0.4% | 0 | 13.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 345 | $5.95 | 1.3% | 0 | 78.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-minimal-wear) | 1 in 133 | $4.73 | 2.7% | 0 | 202.2 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-field-tested) | 1 in 52 | $4.13 | 6.0% | 0 | 517.7 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-well-worn) | 1 in 86 | $3.81 | 3.4% | 0 | 312.7 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) | 1 in 86 | $3.81 | 3.4% | 0 | 312.7 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-battle-scarred) | 1 in 74 | $3.68 | 3.8% | 0 | 366.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-minimal-wear) | 1 in 233 | $3.64 | 1.2% | 0 | 115.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $3.50 | 4.0% | 0 | 401.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-battle-scarred) | 1 in 60 | $3.30 | 4.2% | 0 | 452.9 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Highwayman (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-highwayman-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $2.51 | 11.1% | 1,452 | 1571.8 | 0.92× |
| [Glock-18 \| Weasel (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-weasel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $1.91 | 8.3% | 0 | 1536.8 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Weasel (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-weasel-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $1.58 | 10.0% | 0 | 2245.9 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-angel-eyes-minimal-wear) | 1 in 60 | $1.58 | 2.0% | 0 | 447.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-field-tested) | 1 in 74 | $1.45 | 1.5% | 0 | 364.0 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Directive (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $1.39 | 4.6% | 0 | 1164.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-well-worn) | 1 in 71 | $1.39 | 1.5% | 0 | 377.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-battle-scarred) | 1 in 54 | $1.16 | 1.6% | 0 | 501.5 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-minimal-wear) | 1 in 99 | $1.07 | 0.8% | 0 | 272.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $0.69 | 1.1% | 0 | 552.7 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-battle-scarred) | 1 in 49 | $0.69 | 1.1% | 0 | 552.7 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-angel-eyes-field-tested) | 1 in 51 | $0.67 | 1.0% | 0 | 531.1 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-well-worn) | 1 in 47 | $0.67 | 1.1% | 0 | 577.0 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-angel-eyes-well-worn) | 1 in 39 | $0.57 | 1.1% | 0 | 687.5 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-angel-eyes-battle-scarred) | 1 in 34 | $0.52 | 1.2% | 0 | 795.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| 27 (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-27-minimal-wear) | 1 in 61 | $0.47 | 0.6% | 0 | 442.2 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| 27 (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-27-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $0.35 | 0.7% | 0 | 709.1 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| 27 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-27-battle-scarred) | 1 in 28 | $0.29 | 0.8% | 0 | 957.1 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| 27 (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-27-well-worn) | 1 in 24 | $0.26 | 0.8% | 0 | 1140.5 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Sure Grip (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-sure-grip-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $0.14 | 0.3% | 0 | 860.1 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Sure Grip (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-sure-grip-field-tested) | 12.4% | $0.06 | 0.6% | 0 | 3335.1 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Sure Grip (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-sure-grip-battle-scarred) | 16.5% | $0.05 | 0.6% | 0 | 4454.0 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/empress`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | Case Hardened weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened) Hidden $1.50 $243 162.3x 2026-11-05 10:01 UTC

[AK-47 | The Empress weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress) [Widar CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Widar%20CS2.ME) $1.50 $147 98.02x 2026-11-10 16:32 UTC

[AK-47 | The Empress weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress) Hidden $1.50 $146 97.64x 2026-11-08 21:30 UTC

[AK-47 | The Empress weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress) Hidden $1.50 $144 96.12x 2026-11-05 09:04 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=empress)

[P2000 | Sure Grip weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-sure-grip) [Anyxaa10](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Anyxaa10) $1.50 $0.06 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[P2000 | Sure Grip weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-sure-grip) [Anyxaa10](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Anyxaa10) $1.50 $0.06 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[USP-S | Ticket to Hell weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell) [Anyxaa10](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Anyxaa10) $1.50 $0.74 0.49x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[AWP | Mortis weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis) Hidden $1.50 $4.37 2.91x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Directive weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive) [❟❛❟\[HENTAI+\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%E2%9D%9F%E2%9D%9B%E2%9D%9F%5BHENTAI%2B%5D) $1.50 $1.48 0.99x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC

[P2000 | Sure Grip weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-sure-grip) [---b7---](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/---b7---) $1.50 $0.06 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC

[P2000 | Sure Grip weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-sure-grip) [Tomczak skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Tomczak%20skins.army) $1.50 $0.06 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[Glock-18 | Weasel weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-weasel) [WATERHEAD PEAK](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/WATERHEAD%20PEAK) $1.50 $1.71 1.14x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-angel-eyes) [♱](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%E2%99%B1) $1.50 $0.76 0.51x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC

[USP-S | 27 weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-27) [---b7---](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/---b7---) $1.50 $0.32 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $1.50 | 87.50% | 46 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $1.50 | 87.90% | 46 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $1.50 | 87.47% | 46 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $1.50 | 87.61% | 46 |
| 9 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $1.50 | 87.04% | 46 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.50 | 88.25% | 46 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $1.50 | 87.04% | 46 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $1.50 | 88.25% | 46 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $1.50 | 87.74% | 46 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $1.50 | 88.39% | 46 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $1.50 | 87.88% | 46 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $1.50 | 87.66% | 46 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $1.50 | 87.55% | 46 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.50 | 87.03% | 46 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $1.50 | 87.60% | 46 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $1.50 | 87.84% | 46 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $1.50 | 87.69% | 46 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $1.50 | 87.14% | 46 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.1% classified 2.1% restricted 14.6% red 0.1% Legendary 0.3% pink 3.7% Mythical 14.7% #8847ff 10.0% violet 10.2% blue 12.0% milspec 19.7% #4b69ff 12.4% best hit $243 (162.3x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt