---
title: "EWRON JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "EWRON JOKER ($116.29) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 47 items with odds, observed 100.07% over 711 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/ewron-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:37Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [EWRON JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/ewron-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · EWRON JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/ewron-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/ewron-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/ewron-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/ewron-joker?window=all)

Price · $116.29

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $101.75 from 47 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 100.07% · 711 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 59 openings · below min

7 days · 99.75% ±12.23 534 openings

30 days · 100.07% ±10.59 711 openings

since tracking started · 100.07% ±10.59 711 openings

70.0% 107.0% 144.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.31% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (89.48% – 110.66%, 711 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/ewron-joker?window=24h) | 59 | 107.00% ±36.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/ewron-joker?window=7d) | 534 | 99.75% ±12.2 | +2.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/ewron-joker) | 711 | 100.07% ±10.6 | +2.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/ewron-joker?window=all) | 711 | 100.07% ±10.6 | +2.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 47 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 714 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 22 | $755 | 33.7% | 44 | 32.5 | 1.36× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $365 | 16.3% | 44 | 32.5 | 1.36× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $222 | 9.9% | 17 | 32.5 | 0.52× |
| [Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $154 | 6.9% | 42 | 32.5 | 1.29× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $147 | 6.5% | 28 | 32.5 | 0.86× |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $117 | 5.2% | 29 | 32.5 | 0.89× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 66 | $80.83 | 1.2% | 0 | 10.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-battle-scarred) | 1 in 66 | $73.54 | 1.1% | 0 | 10.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) | 1 in 66 | $72.97 | 1.1% | 0 | 10.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 66 | $71.74 | 1.1% | 0 | 10.8 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-minimal-wear) | 1 in 88 | $63.33 | 0.7% | 0 | 8.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 66 | $57.30 | 0.9% | 0 | 10.8 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-field-tested) | 1 in 88 | $56.04 | 0.6% | 0 | 8.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 66 | $54.96 | 0.8% | 0 | 10.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Buckshot (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-buckshot-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $54.15 | 2.4% | 47 | 32.5 | 1.45× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 66 | $53.92 | 0.8% | 0 | 10.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 66 | $53.63 | 0.8% | 0 | 10.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $49.97 | 2.2% | 32 | 32.5 | 0.99× |
| [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-well-worn) | 1 in 88 | $49.95 | 0.6% | 0 | 8.1 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-battle-scarred) | 1 in 88 | $49.95 | 0.6% | 0 | 8.1 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $49.23 | 2.2% | 18 | 32.5 | 0.55× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 66 | $48.44 | 0.7% | 0 | 10.8 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-factory-new) | 1 in 66 | $25.87 | 0.4% | 0 | 10.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 66 | $20.53 | 0.3% | 0 | 10.8 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Integrale (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-minimal-wear) | 1 in 88 | $18.92 | 0.2% | 0 | 8.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-well-worn) | 1 in 66 | $18.75 | 0.3% | 0 | 10.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-field-tested) | 1 in 66 | $17.61 | 0.3% | 0 | 10.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-battle-scarred) | 1 in 66 | $17.12 | 0.3% | 0 | 10.8 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Urban Rubble (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-urban-rubble-factory-new) | 1 in 44 | $14.09 | 0.3% | 0 | 16.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-well-worn) | 1 in 66 | $12.81 | 0.2% | 0 | 10.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-battle-scarred) | 1 in 66 | $11.32 | 0.2% | 0 | 10.8 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Contaminant (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-contaminant-factory-new) | 1 in 88 | $9.10 | 0.1% | 0 | 8.1 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Urban Rubble (Minimal Wear) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-urban-rubble-minimal-wear) | 1 in 44 | $9.01 | 0.2% | 0 | 16.2 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Dusk Ruins (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-dusk-ruins-minimal-wear) | 1 in 44 | $8.95 | 0.2% | 0 | 16.2 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Integrale (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-field-tested) | 1 in 88 | $8.19 | 0.1% | 0 | 8.1 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Dusk Ruins (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-dusk-ruins-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $7.74 | 0.2% | 0 | 16.2 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 44 | $6.66 | 0.1% | 0 | 16.2 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-minimal-wear) | 1 in 66 | $5.01 | 0.1% | 0 | 10.8 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Integrale (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-well-worn) | 1 in 88 | $4.56 | 0.1% | 0 | 8.1 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Integrale (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-battle-scarred) | 1 in 88 | $4.05 | 0.0% | 0 | 8.1 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $3.03 | 0.1% | 0 | 16.2 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-field-tested) | 1 in 66 | $2.89 | 0.0% | 0 | 10.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-minimal-wear) | 1 in 44 | $2.10 | 0.0% | 0 | 16.2 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Contaminant (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-contaminant-minimal-wear) | 1 in 88 | $1.30 | 0.0% | 0 | 8.1 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Contaminant (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-contaminant-field-tested) | 1 in 88 | $0.89 | 0.0% | 0 | 8.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $0.83 | 0.0% | 0 | 16.2 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Contaminant (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-contaminant-well-worn) | 1 in 88 | $0.80 | 0.0% | 0 | 8.1 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/ewron-joker`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $120 $781 6.52x 2026-11-06 21:56 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $120 $781 6.52x 2026-11-06 21:55 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $120 $781 6.52x 2026-11-06 19:24 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $120 $781 6.52x 2026-11-06 18:18 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [audi enjoyer](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/audi%20enjoyer) $120 $781 6.52x 2026-11-06 18:18 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $120 $781 6.52x 2026-11-06 17:58 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $119 $777 6.55x 2026-11-03 15:15 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $119 $777 6.55x 2026-11-03 15:15 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $119 $777 6.55x 2026-11-03 15:14 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $117 $777 6.63x 2026-11-03 01:06 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=ewron-joker)

[FAMAS | Bad Trip weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip) Hidden $116 $58.02 0.50x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC

[USP-S | Purple DDPAT weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat) Hidden $116 $4.81 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC

[FAMAS | Bad Trip weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip) Hidden $116 $58.02 0.50x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC

[FAMAS | Bad Trip weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip) [Radziu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Radziu) $116 $58.02 0.50x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC

[M4A4 | Sheet Lightning weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning) Hidden $116 $1.47 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:40 UTC

[FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-field-tested) Hidden $116 $49.41 0.43x 2026-11-11 17:40 UTC

[M4A4 | Hellish weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish) [jose](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/jose) $116 $14.62 0.13x 2026-11-11 17:40 UTC

[AWP | Printstream weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream) [code VESU](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/code%20VESU) $116 $53.12 0.46x 2026-11-11 16:05 UTC

[SG 553 | Integrale weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale) Hidden $116 $8.93 0.08x 2026-11-11 14:19 UTC

[AWP | BOOM (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-field-tested) [Kuba Błaszczykowski](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Kuba%20B%C5%82aszczykowski) $116 $117 1.00x 2026-11-11 14:19 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $116 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $116 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $115 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $117 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $117 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $118 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $117 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $119 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $120 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $120 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $120 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $119 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $120 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $119 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $117 | 87.50% | 47 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed gold 4.5% legendary 4.5% covert 22.7% classified 15.9% uncommon 3.8% Ancient 1.5% extraordinary 4.5% red 5.3% #ffd700 4.5% pink 5.7% rare 1.5% industrial 2.3% Classified 1.5% Mil Spec Grade 1.1% blueLight 2.3% blue 6.8% #4b69ff 2.3% mil spec 2.3% #d32ee6 1.1% #8847ff 4.5% Rare 1.1% best hit $781 (6.52x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt