---
title: "FARM AWP JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "FARM AWP JOKER ($78.87) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 11 items with odds, observed 89.05% over 4,549 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-awp-joker
rendered: 2026-11-12T05:43Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [FARM AWP JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-awp-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · FARM AWP JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-awp-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-awp-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-awp-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-awp-joker?window=all)

Price · $78.87

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $69.01 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.05% · 4,549 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 90.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 85.90% ±23.81 337 openings

7 days · 88.85% ±7.53 3,353 openings

30 days · 89.05% ±6.47 4,549 openings

since tracking started · 89.05% ±6.47 4,549 openings

61.5% 86.0% 110.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-awp-joker?window=24h) | 337 | 85.90% ±23.8 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-awp-joker?window=7d) | 3,353 | 88.85% ±7.53 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-awp-joker) | 4,549 | 89.05% ±6.47 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-awp-joker?window=all) | 4,549 | 89.05% ±6.47 | +0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,556 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $620 | 81.7% | 423 | 414.1 | 1.02× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $53.77 | 7.1% | 413 | 414.2 | 1.00× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $42.49 | 5.6% | 410 | 414.2 | 0.99× |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $26.74 | 3.5% | 399 | 414.2 | 0.96× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $14.55 | 1.9% | 434 | 414.2 | 1.05× |
| [Galil AR \| Control (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-control-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.54 | 0.1% | 432 | 414.2 | 1.04× |
| [MP5-SD \| Statics (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-statics-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.37 | 0.0% | 416 | 414.2 | 1.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Calligraffiti (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-calligraffiti-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.35 | 0.0% | 402 | 414.2 | 0.97× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.14 | 0.0% | 394 | 414.2 | 0.95× |
| [M4A4 \| Choppa (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.09 | 0.0% | 424 | 414.2 | 1.02× |
| [Negev \| Sour Grapes (Field-Tested) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-sour-grapes-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.02 | 0.0% | 409 | 414.2 | 0.99× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/farm-awp-joker`, 12 Nov, 02:49 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) [May7](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/May7) $80.93 $642 7.93x 2026-11-03 08:18 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $80.93 $642 7.93x 2026-11-03 08:18 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $80.93 $642 7.93x 2026-11-03 08:18 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) [PYKE TYSON#CS2.ME-CASES.COM](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/PYKE%20TYSON%23CS2.ME-CASES.COM) $80.93 $642 7.93x 2026-11-03 07:52 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) [edek z fabryki kredek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/edek%20z%20fabryki%20kredek) $80.93 $642 7.93x 2026-11-03 00:22 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $80.93 $642 7.93x 2026-11-03 00:18 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $80.93 $642 7.93x 2026-11-03 00:17 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $80.93 $642 7.93x 2026-11-03 00:17 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $80.93 $642 7.93x 2026-11-03 00:17 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) [XM1NN](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/XM1NN) $80.93 $642 7.93x 2026-11-03 00:17 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=farm-awp-joker)

[AWP | Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) Hidden $78.87 $14.55 0.18x 2026-11-12 04:02 UTC

[AWP | Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-well-worn) [STRIXON](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/STRIXON) $78.87 $53.77 0.68x 2026-11-12 04:02 UTC

[AWP | Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) Hidden $78.87 $14.55 0.18x 2026-11-12 04:02 UTC

[USP-S | PC-GRN (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-field-tested) [STRIXON](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/STRIXON) $78.87 $0.14 0.00x 2026-11-12 04:02 UTC

[M4A4 | Choppa (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-field-tested) Hidden $78.87 $0.09 0.00x 2026-11-12 04:02 UTC

[AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) [STRIXON](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/STRIXON) $78.87 $42.49 0.54x 2026-11-12 04:02 UTC

[USP-S | PC-GRN (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-field-tested) Hidden $78.87 $0.14 0.00x 2026-11-12 04:02 UTC

[M4A4 | Choppa (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-field-tested) [STRIXON](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/STRIXON) $78.87 $0.09 0.00x 2026-11-12 04:02 UTC

[USP-S | PC-GRN (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-field-tested) Hidden $78.87 $0.14 0.00x 2026-11-12 04:02 UTC

[Negev | Sour Grapes (Field-Tested) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-sour-grapes-field-tested) [STRIXON](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/STRIXON) $78.87 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-12 04:02 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 12 Nov, 02:49 UTC | $78.87 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $79.17 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $78.47 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $79.17 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $80.07 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $79.07 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $79.85 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $79.07 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $79.12 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $79.74 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $79.12 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $79.88 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $79.74 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $79.87 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $79.88 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $79.87 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $80.09 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $76.80 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $79.80 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $80.93 | 87.50% | 11 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 18.2% red 9.1% pink 9.1% classified 9.1% violet 9.1% blue 18.2% #4b69ff 18.2% blueLight 9.1% best hit $642 (7.93x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt