---
title: "FARM AWP case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "FARM AWP ($1.20) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 11 items with odds, observed 84.60% over 134K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-awp
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:20Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [FARM AWP](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-awp)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · FARM AWP

A case on Casehug (FARM CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-awp?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-awp?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-awp) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-awp?window=all)

Price · $1.20

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $1.05 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.60% · 134K openings, odds method

Variance · 44.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 63 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 97.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 90.05% ±10.90 14.4K openings

7 days · 84.25% ±3.98 112K openings

30 days · 84.60% ±3.64 134K openings

since tracking started · 84.60% ±3.64 134K openings

78.5% 90.0% 101.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-awp?window=24h) | 14.4K | 90.05% ±10.9 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-awp?window=7d) | 112K | 84.25% ±3.98 | −1.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-awp) | 134K | 84.60% ±3.64 | −1.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-awp?window=all) | 134K | 84.60% ±3.64 | −1.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 134K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $616 | 5.9% | 11 | 13.4 | 0.82× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 270 | $53.63 | 18.9% | 498 | 496.1 | 1.00× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 208 | $41.83 | 19.1% | 636 | 643.6 | 0.99× |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-field-tested) | 1 in 137 | $27.19 | 18.9% | 979 | 978.7 | 1.00× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 74 | $14.72 | 18.9% | 1,771 | 1810.0 | 0.98× |
| [Galil AR \| Control (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-control-field-tested) | 10.4% | $0.57 | 5.6% | 10,748 | 13943.6 | 0.77× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Calligraffiti (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-calligraffiti-field-tested) | 11.9% | $0.37 | 4.2% | 13,459 | 15981.5 | 0.84× |
| [MP5-SD \| Statics (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-statics-field-tested) | 11.9% | $0.37 | 4.2% | 12,768 | 15981.5 | 0.80× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-field-tested) | 16.0% | $0.14 | 2.1% | 20,778 | 21384.6 | 0.97× |
| [M4A4 \| Choppa (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-field-tested) | 18.2% | $0.09 | 1.6% | 25,499 | 24414.7 | 1.04× |
| [Negev \| Sour Grapes (Field-Tested) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-sour-grapes-field-tested) | 28.7% | $0.02 | 0.5% | 46,926 | 38425.3 | 1.22× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/farm-awp`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $1.20 $642 535.1x 2026-11-02 23:00 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $1.20 $642 535.1x 2026-11-02 22:02 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) [nandi701](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/nandi701) $1.20 $630 525.0x 2026-11-06 13:43 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $1.20 $630 525.0x 2026-11-06 07:51 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) [nandi701](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/nandi701) $1.20 $629 524.0x 2026-11-05 13:21 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $1.20 $627 522.9x 2026-11-06 19:22 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $1.20 $625 520.7x 2026-11-08 19:58 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) [majki](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/majki) $1.20 $621 517.2x 2026-11-08 00:28 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $1.20 $621 517.2x 2026-11-07 21:00 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $1.20 $616 513.6x 2026-11-11 14:04 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=farm-awp)

[USP-S | PC-GRN (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-field-tested) Hidden $1.20 $0.14 0.12x 2026-11-11 19:20 UTC

[USP-S | PC-GRN (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-field-tested) Hidden $1.20 $0.14 0.12x 2026-11-11 19:20 UTC

[MP5-SD | Statics (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-statics-field-tested) Hidden $1.20 $0.37 0.31x 2026-11-11 19:20 UTC

[Negev | Sour Grapes (Field-Tested) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-sour-grapes-field-tested) [????????????????????????????](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F) $1.20 $0.02 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:20 UTC

[AWP | Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) Hidden $1.20 $14.72 12.27x 2026-11-11 19:20 UTC

[M4A4 | Choppa (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-field-tested) Hidden $1.20 $0.09 0.08x 2026-11-11 19:20 UTC

[Galil AR | Control (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-control-field-tested) Hidden $1.20 $0.57 0.48x 2026-11-11 19:20 UTC

[Negev | Sour Grapes (Field-Tested) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-sour-grapes-field-tested) [????????????????????????????](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F) $1.20 $0.02 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:20 UTC

[USP-S | PC-GRN (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-field-tested) Hidden $1.20 $0.14 0.12x 2026-11-11 19:20 UTC

[M4A4 | Choppa (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-field-tested) Hidden $1.20 $0.09 0.08x 2026-11-11 19:20 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $1.20 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $1.20 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $1.20 | 87.60% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $1.20 | 86.62% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $1.20 | 87.92% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $1.20 | 86.55% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $1.20 | 87.84% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $1.20 | 88.20% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $1.20 | 86.88% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $1.20 | 87.23% | 11 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $1.20 | 86.83% | 11 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $1.20 | 85.61% | 11 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $1.20 | 88.33% | 11 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $1.20 | 88.37% | 11 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $1.20 | 87.06% | 11 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.5% red 0.4% pink 0.7% classified 1.4% violet 10.4% #4b69ff 27.9% blue 30.1% blueLight 28.7% best hit $642 (535.1x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt