--- title: "FARM GAMMA JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops" description: "FARM GAMMA JOKER ($127.58) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 10 items with odds, observed 89.17% over 874 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-gamma-joker rendered: 2026-11-12T03:30Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [FARM GAMMA JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-gamma-joker) # [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · FARM GAMMA JOKER A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-gamma-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-gamma-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-gamma-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-gamma-joker?window=all) Price · $127.58 Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $111.63 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.17% · 874 openings, odds method Variance · 2.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 79.18% ±21.14 197 openings 7 days · 86.73% ±10.50 800 openings 30 days · 89.17% ±10.04 874 openings since tracking started · 89.17% ±10.04 874 openings 57.5% 79.3% 101.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-gamma-joker?window=24h) | 197 | 79.18% ±21.1 | −0.8σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-gamma-joker?window=7d) | 800 | 86.73% ±10.5 | −0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-gamma-joker) | 874 | 89.17% ±10.0 | +0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-gamma-joker?window=all) | 874 | 89.17% ±10.0 | +0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 946 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 10.0% | $634 | 56.8% | 105 | 94.6 | 1.11× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 10.0% | $275 | 24.6% | 89 | 94.6 | 0.94× | | [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) weapon · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 10.0% | $115 | 10.3% | 82 | 94.6 | 0.87× | | [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Phase 3) weapon · red · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested-phase-3) | 10.0% | $88.86 | 8.0% | 106 | 94.6 | 1.12× | | [UMP-45 \| Scaffold (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-scaffold-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $1.51 | 0.1% | 101 | 94.6 | 1.07× | | [Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Battle-Scarred) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $1.01 | 0.1% | 96 | 94.6 | 1.01× | | [Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $0.69 | 0.1% | 73 | 94.6 | 0.77× | | [MAC-10 \| Oceanic (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-oceanic-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $0.31 | 0.0% | 89 | 94.6 | 0.94× | | [Glock-18 \| High Beam (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-high-beam-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.15 | 0.0% | 110 | 94.6 | 1.16× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 10.0% | $0.09 | 0.0% | 95 | 94.6 | 1.00× | Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/farm-gamma-joker`, 12 Nov, 02:49 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $129 $644 4.97x 2026-11-08 19:14 UTC [★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $129 $644 4.97x 2026-11-08 13:45 UTC [★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [HOPEDNF](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/HOPEDNF) $129 $644 4.97x 2026-11-08 13:45 UTC [★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $129 $644 4.97x 2026-11-08 13:45 UTC [★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [HOPEDNF](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/HOPEDNF) $129 $644 4.97x 2026-11-08 13:45 UTC [★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $129 $644 4.97x 2026-11-08 13:45 UTC [★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $129 $644 4.97x 2026-11-08 13:44 UTC [★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [HOPEDNF](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/HOPEDNF) $129 $644 4.97x 2026-11-08 13:44 UTC [★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $129 $644 4.97x 2026-11-08 13:44 UTC [★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $129 $644 4.97x 2026-11-08 13:38 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=farm-gamma-joker) [Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Phase 3) weapon · red · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested-phase-3) Hidden $128 $88.86 0.70x 2026-11-12 01:16 UTC [Glock-18 | High Beam (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-high-beam-factory-new) Hidden $128 $0.15 0.00x 2026-11-12 01:16 UTC [Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike (Battle-Scarred) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-battle-scarred) Hidden $128 $1.01 0.01x 2026-11-12 01:16 UTC [MAC-10 | Oceanic (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-oceanic-minimal-wear) [CrinX](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/CrinX) $128 $0.31 0.00x 2026-11-12 01:16 UTC [Glock-18 | High Beam (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-high-beam-factory-new) Hidden $128 $0.15 0.00x 2026-11-12 01:15 UTC [Glock-18 | High Beam (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-high-beam-factory-new) Hidden $128 $0.15 0.00x 2026-11-12 01:15 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $128 $275 2.16x 2026-11-12 01:15 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) [CrinX](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/CrinX) $128 $0.09 0.00x 2026-11-12 01:15 UTC [Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) weapon · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $128 $115 0.90x 2026-11-12 01:15 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $128 $275 2.16x 2026-11-12 01:15 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 12 Nov, 02:49 UTC | $128 | 87.50% | 10 | | 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $128 | 87.50% | 10 | | 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $129 | 87.50% | 10 | | 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $128 | 87.50% | 10 | | 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $129 | 87.50% | 10 | | 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $129 | 87.50% | 10 | | 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $130 | 87.50% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $130 | 87.50% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $129 | 87.50% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $130 | 87.50% | 10 | | 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $129 | 87.50% | 10 | | 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $130 | 87.50% | 10 | | 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $129 | 87.50% | 10 | | 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $129 | 87.50% | 10 | | 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $130 | 87.50% | 10 | | 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $127 | 88.87% | 10 | | 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $130 | 85.84% | 10 | | 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $130 | 87.50% | 10 | | 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $130 | 87.50% | 10 | | 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $130 | 87.50% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 30.0% red 10.0% restricted 10.0% common 10.0% Rare 10.0% blue 10.0% light blue 10.0% #4b69ff 10.0% best hit $644 (4.97x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt