---
title: "FARM GAMMA case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "FARM GAMMA ($3.50) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 10 items with odds, observed 81.61% over 44.4K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-gamma
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:42Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [FARM GAMMA](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-gamma)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · FARM GAMMA

A case on Casehug (FARM CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-gamma?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-gamma?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-gamma) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-gamma?window=all)

Price · $3.50

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $3.06 from 10 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 81.61% · 44.4K openings, odds method

Variance · 36.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 94 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 98.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 83.52% ±16.00 5,617 openings

7 days · 82.35% ±6.57 36.9K openings

30 days · 81.61% ±6.00 44.4K openings

since tracking started · 81.61% ±6.00 44.4K openings

67.0% 83.5% 100.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-gamma?window=24h) | 5,617 | 83.52% ±16.0 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-gamma?window=7d) | 36.9K | 82.35% ±6.57 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-gamma) | 44.4K | 81.61% ±6.00 | −1.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-gamma?window=all) | 44.4K | 81.61% ±6.00 | −1.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 44.5K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 10,000 | $634 | 2.1% | 11 | 4.4 | 2.47× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 323 | $278 | 28.2% | 103 | 137.9 | 0.75× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) weapon · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 135 | $115 | 27.7% | 282 | 329.1 | 0.86× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Phase 3) weapon · red · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested-phase-3) | 1 in 106 | $89.86 | 27.6% | 439 | 418.0 | 1.05× |
| [UMP-45 \| Scaffold (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-scaffold-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $1.51 | 4.6% | 2,890 | 4126.6 | 0.70× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Battle-Scarred) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-battle-scarred) | 11.6% | $1.01 | 3.8% | 4,253 | 5140.5 | 0.83× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-minimal-wear) | 13.1% | $0.67 | 2.9% | 7,869 | 5812.0 | 1.35× |
| [MAC-10 \| Oceanic (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-oceanic-minimal-wear) | 16.5% | $0.31 | 1.7% | 5,532 | 7328.3 | 0.75× |
| [Glock-18 \| High Beam (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-high-beam-factory-new) | 21.9% | $0.12 | 0.9% | 14,704 | 9738.5 | 1.51× |
| [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 25.7% | $0.08 | 0.7% | 8,385 | 11432.7 | 0.73× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/farm-gamma`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [Pavel\_CZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Pavel_CZ) $3.50 $644 183.9x 2026-11-07 14:37 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [Pavel\_CZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Pavel_CZ) $3.50 $644 183.9x 2026-11-07 14:26 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $3.50 $644 183.9x 2026-11-07 13:16 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $3.50 $644 183.9x 2026-11-05 08:18 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [Eusebiooo](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Eusebiooo) $3.50 $644 183.9x 2026-11-08 16:13 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $3.50 $644 183.9x 2026-11-08 11:58 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $3.50 $640 182.7x 2026-11-03 21:05 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [Saint シ](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Saint%20%E3%82%B7) $3.50 $637 182.1x 2026-11-10 01:04 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [BrumBasse](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/BrumBasse) $3.50 $634 181.1x 2026-11-11 17:19 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [nandi701](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/nandi701) $3.50 $628 179.4x 2026-11-06 12:35 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=farm-gamma)

[MAC-10 | Oceanic (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-oceanic-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.50 $0.31 0.09x 2026-11-11 18:41 UTC

[P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) [Jaś](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Ja%C5%9B) $3.50 $0.08 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:41 UTC

[UMP-45 | Scaffold (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-scaffold-battle-scarred) Hidden $3.50 $1.51 0.43x 2026-11-11 18:41 UTC

[Glock-18 | High Beam (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-high-beam-factory-new) [Jaś](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Ja%C5%9B) $3.50 $0.12 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:41 UTC

[P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $3.50 $0.08 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:41 UTC

[MAC-10 | Oceanic (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-oceanic-minimal-wear) [Jaś](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Ja%C5%9B) $3.50 $0.31 0.09x 2026-11-11 18:41 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike (Battle-Scarred) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-battle-scarred) Hidden $3.50 $1.01 0.29x 2026-11-11 18:41 UTC

[MAC-10 | Oceanic (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-oceanic-minimal-wear) [Jaś](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Ja%C5%9B) $3.50 $0.31 0.09x 2026-11-11 18:41 UTC

[Glock-18 | High Beam (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-high-beam-factory-new) Hidden $3.50 $0.12 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:39 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike (Battle-Scarred) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-battle-scarred) Hidden $3.50 $1.01 0.29x 2026-11-11 18:39 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $3.50 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $3.50 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $3.50 | 87.14% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $3.50 | 87.07% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $3.50 | 86.79% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $3.50 | 87.06% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $3.50 | 87.12% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $3.50 | 86.88% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $3.50 | 87.21% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $3.50 | 87.07% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $3.50 | 87.21% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $3.50 | 87.12% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $3.50 | 87.35% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $3.50 | 86.53% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $3.50 | 87.15% | 10 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $3.50 | 86.95% | 10 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $3.50 | 86.81% | 10 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $3.50 | 87.07% | 10 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 1.1% red 0.9% restricted 9.3% common 11.6% Rare 13.1% blue 16.5% light blue 21.9% #4b69ff 25.7% best hit $644 (183.9x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt