---
title: "FARM KNIFE JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "FARM KNIFE JOKER ($38.48) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 11 items with odds, observed 84.44% over 5,304 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-knife-joker
rendered: 2026-11-12T01:42Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [FARM KNIFE JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-knife-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · FARM KNIFE JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-knife-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-knife-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-knife-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-knife-joker?window=all)

Price · $38.48

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $33.67 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.44% · 5,304 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 91.54% ±12.38 689 openings

7 days · 82.25% ±5.04 4,247 openings

30 days · 84.44% ±4.51 5,304 openings

since tracking started · 84.44% ±4.51 5,304 openings

76.5% 90.5% 104.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-knife-joker?window=24h) | 689 | 91.54% ±12.4 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-knife-joker?window=7d) | 4,247 | 82.25% ±5.04 | −2.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-knife-joker) | 5,304 | 84.44% ±4.51 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-knife-joker?window=all) | 5,304 | 84.44% ±4.51 | −1.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,312 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $212 | 57.2% | 446 | 482.9 | 0.92× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $100 | 27.1% | 499 | 482.9 | 1.03× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $55.63 | 15.0% | 486 | 482.9 | 1.01× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $1.01 | 0.3% | 461 | 482.9 | 0.95× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Heist (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-heist-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.60 | 0.2% | 476 | 482.9 | 0.99× |
| [P250 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-x-ray-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.45 | 0.1% | 470 | 482.9 | 0.97× |
| [Nova \| Army Sheen (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-army-sheen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $0.37 | 0.1% | 487 | 482.9 | 1.01× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Scumbria (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scumbria-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $0.28 | 0.1% | 488 | 482.9 | 1.01× |
| [AUG \| Condemned (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-condemned-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 518 | 482.9 | 1.07× |
| [M4A4 \| Mainframe (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 484 | 482.9 | 1.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Forest Night (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-forest-night-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.01 | 0.0% | 497 | 482.9 | 1.03× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/farm-knife-joker`, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=farm-knife-joker)

[AUG | Condemned (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-condemned-field-tested) Hidden $38.48 $0.03 0.00x 2026-11-12 00:59 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $38.48 $55.63 1.45x 2026-11-12 00:59 UTC

[AUG | Condemned (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-condemned-field-tested) [Matekwiertara](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Matekwiertara) $38.48 $0.03 0.00x 2026-11-12 00:59 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Scumbria (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scumbria-well-worn) Hidden $38.48 $0.28 0.01x 2026-11-12 00:49 UTC

[P250 | X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-x-ray-field-tested) Hidden $38.48 $0.45 0.01x 2026-11-12 00:49 UTC

[Nova | Army Sheen (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-army-sheen-minimal-wear) Hidden $38.48 $0.37 0.01x 2026-11-12 00:49 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-forest-night-field-tested) [Matekwiertara](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Matekwiertara) $38.48 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-12 00:49 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Scumbria (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scumbria-well-worn) Hidden $38.48 $0.28 0.01x 2026-11-12 00:49 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-freehand-factory-new) Hidden $38.48 $100 2.60x 2026-11-12 00:49 UTC

[M4A4 | Mainframe (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-field-tested) Hidden $38.48 $0.03 0.00x 2026-11-12 00:49 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $38.48 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $39.13 | 87.51% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $39.28 | 87.51% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $38.58 | 87.49% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $39.66 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $39.57 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $40.07 | 87.49% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $39.91 | 87.49% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $40.34 | 87.49% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $40.23 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $40.11 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $40.07 | 87.49% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $40.11 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $39.49 | 87.49% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $39.87 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $40.46 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $40.28 | 87.49% | 11 |
| 4 Nov, 04:46 UTC | $37.74 | 87.51% | 11 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $38.82 | 87.49% | 11 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $40.15 | 87.49% | 11 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 27.3% violet 9.1% grey 9.1% restricted 9.1% gray 9.1% #4b69ff 9.1% #87c7ff 9.1% Uncommon 9.1% consumer 9.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt