---
title: "FARM KNIFE case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "FARM KNIFE ($3.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 11 items with odds, observed 84.59% over 36.4K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-knife
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:10Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [FARM KNIFE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-knife)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · FARM KNIFE

A case on Casehug (FARM CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-knife?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-knife?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-knife) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-knife?window=all)

Price · $3.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $2.63 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.59% · 36.4K openings, odds method

Variance · 32.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 86 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 97.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 99.99% ±17.85 3,936 openings

7 days · 85.27% ±5.15 30.5K openings

30 days · 84.59% ±4.69 36.4K openings

since tracking started · 84.59% ±4.69 36.4K openings

79.5% 99.0% 118.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-knife?window=24h) | 3,936 | 99.99% ±17.9 | +1.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-knife?window=7d) | 30.5K | 85.27% ±5.15 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-knife) | 36.4K | 84.59% ±4.69 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/farm-knife?window=all) | 36.4K | 84.59% ±4.69 | −1.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 36.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 263 | $211 | 30.6% | 35 | 138.2 | 0.25× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 128 | $103 | 30.7% | 242 | 283.8 | 0.85× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 74 | $59.50 | 30.6% | 855 | 491.1 | 1.74× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $1.03 | 2.6% | 2,155 | 2372.0 | 0.91× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Heist (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-heist-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.60 | 1.6% | 3,766 | 2594.0 | 1.45× |
| [P250 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-x-ray-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.47 | 1.4% | 3,836 | 2794.1 | 1.37× |
| [Nova \| Army Sheen (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-army-sheen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.37 | 1.2% | 7,572 | 3001.4 | 2.52× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Scumbria (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scumbria-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $0.28 | 1.0% | 1,423 | 3259.7 | 0.44× |
| [AUG \| Condemned (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-condemned-field-tested) | 17.5% | $0.03 | 0.2% | 6,576 | 6374.0 | 1.03× |
| [M4A4 \| Mainframe (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-field-tested) | 17.5% | $0.03 | 0.2% | 7,847 | 6374.0 | 1.23× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Forest Night (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-forest-night-field-tested) | 23.9% | $0.01 | 0.1% | 2,074 | 8698.7 | 0.24× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/farm-knife`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Stiletto Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) [JellyFlex](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/JellyFlex) $3.00 $224 74.63x 2026-11-03 03:31 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $3.00 $223 74.43x 2026-11-07 22:51 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $3.00 $223 74.43x 2026-11-07 13:04 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $3.00 $223 74.43x 2026-11-07 12:32 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $3.00 $223 74.43x 2026-11-07 11:43 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) [Godl!ke](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Godl!ke) $3.00 $223 74.33x 2026-11-06 23:30 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $3.00 $223 74.32x 2026-11-08 15:27 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) [KuziCarry](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/KuziCarry) $3.00 $221 73.83x 2026-11-06 06:20 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) [Sentk0-Biceps CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Sentk0-Biceps%20CS2.ME) $3.00 $221 73.83x 2026-11-06 00:38 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $3.00 $221 73.83x 2026-11-05 18:33 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=farm-knife)

[AUG | Condemned (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-condemned-field-tested) [ETER =GW A case hug etc!!!](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/ETER%20%3DGW%20A%20case%20hug%20etc!!!) $3.00 $0.03 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:06 UTC

[P250 | X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-x-ray-field-tested) [damian.turlej0917](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/damian.turlej0917) $3.00 $0.47 0.16x 2026-11-11 14:06 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Heist (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-heist-field-tested) Hidden $3.00 $0.60 0.20x 2026-11-11 14:06 UTC

[M4A4 | Mainframe (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-field-tested) [motusszrotus](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/motusszrotus) $3.00 $0.03 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:06 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Scumbria (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scumbria-well-worn) Hidden $3.00 $0.28 0.09x 2026-11-11 14:06 UTC

[Nova | Army Sheen (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-army-sheen-minimal-wear) [motusszrotus](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/motusszrotus) $3.00 $0.37 0.12x 2026-11-11 14:06 UTC

[P250 | X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-x-ray-field-tested) Hidden $3.00 $0.47 0.16x 2026-11-11 14:06 UTC

[P250 | X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-x-ray-field-tested) [motusszrotus](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/motusszrotus) $3.00 $0.47 0.16x 2026-11-11 14:06 UTC

[Nova | Army Sheen (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-army-sheen-minimal-wear) [korni](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/korni) $3.00 $0.37 0.12x 2026-11-11 14:03 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-field-tested) [damian.turlej0917](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/damian.turlej0917) $3.00 $59.50 19.83x 2026-11-11 14:03 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $3.00 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $3.00 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $3.00 | 87.08% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $3.00 | 87.08% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $3.00 | 87.07% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $3.00 | 87.03% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $3.00 | 87.02% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $3.00 | 87.02% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $3.00 | 87.11% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $3.00 | 87.09% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $3.00 | 86.57% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $3.00 | 87.07% | 11 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $3.00 | 87.02% | 11 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $3.00 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $3.00 | 88.69% | 11 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $3.00 | 89.53% | 11 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $3.00 | 89.76% | 11 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 2.5% violet 6.5% grey 7.1% restricted 7.7% gray 8.3% #4b69ff 9.0% #87c7ff 17.5% Uncommon 17.5% consumer 23.9% best hit $224 (74.63x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt