--- title: "FBBTV JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops" description: "FBBTV JOKER ($46.27) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 38 items with odds, observed 93.22% over 941 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/fbbtv-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T18:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [FBBTV JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/fbbtv-joker) # [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · FBBTV JOKER A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/fbbtv-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/fbbtv-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/fbbtv-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/fbbtv-joker?window=all) Price · $46.27 Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $40.49 from 38 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.22% · 941 openings, odds method Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 13.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 60.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 95.65% ±21.17 117 openings 7 days · 93.71% ±7.74 874 openings 30 days · 93.22% ±7.46 941 openings since tracking started · 93.22% ±7.46 941 openings 74.0% 95.8% 117.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/fbbtv-joker?window=24h) | 117 | 95.65% ±21.2 | +0.8σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/fbbtv-joker?window=7d) | 874 | 93.71% ±7.74 | +1.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/fbbtv-joker) | 941 | 93.22% ±7.46 | +1.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/fbbtv-joker?window=all) | 941 | 93.22% ±7.46 | +1.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,012 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 10.0% | $162 | 40.1% | 101 | 101.2 | 1.00× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $149 | 12.3% | 0 | 33.7 | 0.00× | | [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $84.62 | 5.2% | 0 | 25.3 | 0.00× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $80.31 | 6.6% | 0 | 33.7 | 0.00× | | [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $68.38 | 4.2% | 0 | 25.3 | 0.00× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $66.66 | 5.5% | 0 | 33.7 | 0.00× | | [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $65.44 | 4.0% | 0 | 25.3 | 0.00× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $64.29 | 7.9% | 0 | 50.6 | 0.00× | | [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $60.50 | 3.7% | 0 | 25.3 | 0.00× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $55.22 | 6.8% | 0 | 50.6 | 0.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $13.57 | 0.7% | 0 | 20.2 | 0.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $7.97 | 0.4% | 0 | 20.2 | 0.00× | | [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $6.78 | 0.4% | 0 | 25.3 | 0.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $5.12 | 0.3% | 0 | 20.2 | 0.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $5.10 | 0.3% | 0 | 20.2 | 0.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $4.61 | 0.2% | 0 | 20.2 | 0.00× | | [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $4.21 | 0.3% | 0 | 25.3 | 0.00× | | [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $4.02 | 0.2% | 0 | 25.3 | 0.00× | | [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $3.96 | 0.2% | 0 | 25.3 | 0.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $2.60 | 0.1% | 0 | 20.2 | 0.00× | | [M4A4 \| Choppa (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $1.30 | 0.1% | 0 | 20.2 | 0.00× | | [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $1.18 | 0.1% | 0 | 20.2 | 0.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $1.15 | 0.1% | 0 | 20.2 | 0.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $0.63 | 0.0% | 0 | 20.2 | 0.00× | | [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $0.61 | 0.0% | 0 | 25.3 | 0.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.58 | 0.0% | 0 | 20.2 | 0.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $0.55 | 0.0% | 0 | 20.2 | 0.00× | | [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $0.43 | 0.0% | 0 | 25.3 | 0.00× | | [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $0.42 | 0.0% | 0 | 25.3 | 0.00× | | [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $0.41 | 0.0% | 0 | 25.3 | 0.00× | | [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $0.24 | 0.0% | 0 | 20.2 | 0.00× | | [M4A4 \| Choppa (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $0.23 | 0.0% | 0 | 20.2 | 0.00× | | [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $0.14 | 0.0% | 0 | 20.2 | 0.00× | | [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.14 | 0.0% | 0 | 20.2 | 0.00× | | [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $0.14 | 0.0% | 0 | 20.2 | 0.00× | | [M4A4 \| Choppa (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.09 | 0.0% | 0 | 20.2 | 0.00× | | [M4A4 \| Choppa (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $0.06 | 0.0% | 0 | 20.2 | 0.00× | | [M4A4 \| Choppa (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $0.06 | 0.0% | 0 | 20.2 | 0.00× | Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/fbbtv-joker`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=fbbtv-joker) [M4A4 | The Emperor weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor) Hidden $47.09 $72.16 1.53x 2026-11-11 18:12 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Lore knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore) Hidden $47.09 $98.98 2.10x 2026-11-11 18:12 UTC [USP-S | Jawbreaker weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker) Hidden $47.09 $4.73 0.10x 2026-11-11 18:12 UTC [★ Paracord Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [TidinTidin roadto19k CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/TidinTidin%20roadto19k%20CS2.ME) $47.09 $168 3.56x 2026-11-11 18:12 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Lore knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore) Hidden $47.09 $98.98 2.10x 2026-11-11 18:12 UTC [USP-S | PC-GRN weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn) Hidden $47.09 $0.35 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:12 UTC [M4A4 | The Emperor weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor) Hidden $47.09 $72.16 1.53x 2026-11-11 18:12 UTC [M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s) [TidinTidin roadto19k CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/TidinTidin%20roadto19k%20CS2.ME) $47.09 $1.05 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:12 UTC [Sawed-Off | Analog Input weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input) Hidden $47.09 $0.49 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:12 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Lore knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore) Hidden $47.09 $98.98 2.10x 2026-11-11 18:12 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $46.27 | 87.50% | 38 | | 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $46.03 | 87.51% | 38 | | 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $46.27 | 87.50% | 38 | | 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $44.82 | 87.50% | 38 | | 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $46.10 | 87.51% | 38 | | 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $45.59 | 87.50% | 38 | | 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $46.41 | 87.50% | 38 | | 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $45.89 | 87.49% | 38 | | 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $46.13 | 87.50% | 38 | | 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $46.34 | 87.50% | 38 | | 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $46.10 | 87.51% | 38 | | 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $46.34 | 87.50% | 38 | | 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $46.54 | 87.50% | 38 | | 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $46.61 | 87.50% | 38 | | 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $46.56 | 87.50% | 38 | | 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $46.40 | 87.50% | 38 | | 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $46.37 | 87.50% | 38 | | 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $46.58 | 87.50% | 38 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed rare 10.0% covert 17.5% red 2.5% gold 5.0% Immortal 5.0% pink 11.5% Classified 4.0% Legendary 2.0% classified 2.5% restricted 4.0% blue 8.0% #4b69ff 8.0% #8847ff 2.0% Restricted 2.0% violet 10.0% Mythical 2.0% Rare 4.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt