---
title: "FBBTV case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "FBBTV ($6.50) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 38 items with odds, observed 81.35% over 9,972 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/fbbtv
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:35Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [FBBTV](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/fbbtv)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · FBBTV

A case on Casehug (CREATORS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/fbbtv?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/fbbtv?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/fbbtv) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/fbbtv?window=all)

Price · $6.50

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $5.69 from 38 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 81.35% · 9,972 openings, odds method

Variance · 9.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 35 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 88.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 69.55% ±18.68 1,084 openings

7 days · 81.01% ±6.70 8,426 openings

30 days · 81.35% ±6.18 9,972 openings

since tracking started · 81.35% ±6.18 9,972 openings

50.0% 69.5% 89.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/fbbtv?window=24h) | 1,084 | 69.55% ±18.7 | −1.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/fbbtv?window=7d) | 8,426 | 81.01% ±6.70 | −1.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/fbbtv) | 9,972 | 81.35% ±6.18 | −1.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/fbbtv?window=all) | 9,972 | 81.35% ±6.18 | −1.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,981 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 139 | $162 | 20.6% | 67 | 71.9 | 0.93× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 625 | $149 | 4.2% | 0 | 16.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 357 | $84.62 | 4.2% | 0 | 27.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 189 | $80.31 | 7.5% | 0 | 52.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-well-worn) | 1 in 233 | $68.38 | 5.2% | 0 | 42.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 130 | $66.66 | 9.0% | 0 | 76.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 213 | $65.44 | 5.4% | 0 | 46.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 119 | $64.29 | 9.5% | 0 | 83.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 182 | $60.50 | 5.9% | 0 | 54.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 88 | $55.22 | 11.1% | 0 | 113.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 127 | $13.57 | 1.9% | 0 | 78.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 44 | $7.97 | 3.2% | 0 | 227.6 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $6.78 | 3.4% | 0 | 287.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 92 | $5.12 | 1.0% | 0 | 108.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 102 | $5.10 | 0.9% | 0 | 97.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 88 | $4.61 | 0.9% | 0 | 113.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-field-tested) | 1 in 84 | $4.21 | 0.9% | 0 | 118.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-battle-scarred) | 1 in 78 | $4.02 | 0.9% | 0 | 127.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-well-worn) | 1 in 76 | $3.96 | 0.9% | 0 | 130.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-factory-new) | 1 in 294 | $2.60 | 0.2% | 0 | 33.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Choppa (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-factory-new) | 1 in 769 | $1.30 | 0.0% | 0 | 13.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-factory-new) | 1 in 370 | $1.18 | 0.1% | 0 | 26.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-minimal-wear) | 1 in 86 | $1.15 | 0.2% | 0 | 115.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-well-worn) | 1 in 35 | $0.63 | 0.3% | 0 | 285.5 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-minimal-wear) | 1 in 46 | $0.61 | 0.2% | 0 | 217.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $0.58 | 0.3% | 0 | 322.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $0.55 | 0.3% | 0 | 349.3 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-battle-scarred) | 1 in 27 | $0.43 | 0.3% | 0 | 367.3 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-well-worn) | 1 in 26 | $0.42 | 0.3% | 0 | 380.3 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.41 | 0.3% | 0 | 394.2 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $0.24 | 0.1% | 0 | 292.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Choppa (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-minimal-wear) | 1 in 60 | $0.23 | 0.1% | 0 | 166.7 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $0.14 | 0.2% | 0 | 656.7 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.14 | 0.2% | 0 | 656.7 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-battle-scarred) | 1 in 15 | $0.14 | 0.2% | 0 | 656.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Choppa (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.09 | 0.1% | 0 | 679.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Choppa (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-well-worn) | 12.4% | $0.06 | 0.1% | 0 | 1237.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Choppa (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-battle-scarred) | 12.5% | $0.06 | 0.1% | 0 | 1248.6 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/fbbtv`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=fbbtv)

[M4A4 | Choppa weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa) Hidden $6.50 $0.08 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC

[M4A4 | Choppa weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa) Hidden $6.50 $0.08 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC

[USP-S | Jawbreaker weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker) Hidden $6.50 $5.24 0.81x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC

[M4A4 | Choppa weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa) [.](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/) $6.50 $0.08 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC

[M4A4 | Choppa weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa) Hidden $6.50 $0.08 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC

[USP-S | PC-GRN weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn) Hidden $6.50 $0.17 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC

[USP-S | PC-GRN weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn) Hidden $6.50 $0.17 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC

[M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s) [.](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/) $6.50 $0.70 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC

[M4A4 | Choppa weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa) [Witold Pilecki](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Witold%20Pilecki) $6.50 $0.08 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Analog Input weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input) [ุ](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%E0%B8%B8) $6.50 $0.45 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $6.50 | 87.50% | 38 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $6.50 | 87.46% | 38 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $6.50 | 87.05% | 38 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $6.50 | 87.63% | 38 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $6.50 | 87.20% | 38 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $6.50 | 87.63% | 38 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $6.50 | 87.53% | 38 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $6.50 | 87.63% | 38 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $6.50 | 87.31% | 38 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $6.50 | 87.60% | 38 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $6.50 | 87.25% | 38 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $6.50 | 87.08% | 38 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $6.50 | 87.25% | 38 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $6.50 | 87.08% | 38 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $6.50 | 87.28% | 38 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $6.50 | 87.08% | 38 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $6.50 | 87.28% | 38 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $6.50 | 87.50% | 38 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $6.50 | 87.28% | 38 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $6.50 | 87.11% | 38 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $6.50 | 87.50% | 38 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $6.50 | 88.04% | 38 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $6.50 | 87.40% | 38 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed rare 0.7% covert 2.9% red 0.3% gold 0.8% Immortal 1.1% pink 7.3% Classified 3.3% Legendary 1.1% classified 1.2% restricted 3.8% blue 31.9% #4b69ff 20.0% #8847ff 1.2% Restricted 2.9% violet 13.6% Mythical 3.2% Rare 4.6% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt