---
title: "FERRO JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "FERRO JOKER ($483.50) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 65 items with odds, observed 65.00% over 29 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/ferro-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:01Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [FERRO JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/ferro-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · FERRO JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/ferro-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/ferro-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/ferro-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/ferro-joker?window=all)

Price · $483.50

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $423.06 from 65 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 65.00% · 29 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 13.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 11 openings · below min

30 days · 29 openings · below min

since tracking started · 29 openings · below min

-0.5% 66.0% 132.5%

**Small sample.** 29 openings and 3.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/ferro-joker?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/ferro-joker?window=7d) | 11 | 64.32% ±67.4 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/ferro-joker) | 29 | 65.00% ±41.8 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/ferro-joker?window=all) | 29 | 65.00% ±41.8 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 65 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 30 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-well-worn) | 1 in 23 | $1,910 | 19.6% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $1,619 | 16.6% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.77× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $1,365 | 14.0% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.53× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $1,071 | 11.0% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.77× |
| [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $858 | 8.8% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.77× |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-well-worn) | 1 in 23 | $750 | 7.7% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $395 | 4.1% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) | 1 in 115 | $364 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 115 | $289 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) | 1 in 69 | $284 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) | 1 in 69 | $279 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-field-tested) | 1 in 115 | $250 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 92 | $247 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-factory-new) | 1 in 69 | $246 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 92 | $233 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-well-worn) | 1 in 115 | $227 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-well-worn) | 1 in 92 | $222 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $219 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 115 | $217 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-factory-new) | 1 in 115 | $207 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 46 | $193 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-roll-cage-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $180 | 1.9% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.53× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $162 | 1.7% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.77× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-factory-new) | 1 in 115 | $159 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-well-worn) | 1 in 46 | $156 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-minimal-wear) | 1 in 69 | $136 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $134 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 69 | $119 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-factory-new) | 1 in 115 | $113 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 69 | $106 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $103 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 115 | $82.60 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-battle-scarred) | 1 in 69 | $74.98 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-minimal-wear) | 1 in 115 | $69.43 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 115 | $65.45 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 115 | $56.18 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 115 | $55.33 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-battle-scarred) | 1 in 115 | $54.88 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-well-worn) | 1 in 115 | $53.15 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 1 in 115 | $52.65 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 115 | $47.84 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) | 1 in 115 | $41.26 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-well-worn) | 1 in 115 | $39.20 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 115 | $35.39 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-factory-new) | 1 in 115 | $32.27 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-factory-new) | 1 in 115 | $15.37 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-minimal-wear) | 1 in 115 | $8.37 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-factory-new) | 1 in 92 | $7.07 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 115 | $5.86 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-factory-new) | 1 in 115 | $5.49 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-factory-new) | 1 in 46 | $4.90 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-well-worn) | 1 in 92 | $4.16 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 115 | $3.20 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92 | $2.98 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-field-tested) | 1 in 115 | $2.86 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $2.54 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-battle-scarred) | 1 in 115 | $2.36 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-well-worn) | 1 in 115 | $2.28 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-field-tested) | 1 in 115 | $2.26 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-well-worn) | 1 in 115 | $2.20 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-minimal-wear) | 1 in 46 | $2.10 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-well-worn) | 1 in 115 | $1.32 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-field-tested) | 1 in 115 | $1.29 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 115 | $1.19 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-battle-scarred) | 1 in 115 | $1.06 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/ferro-joker`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $487 $1,652 3.39x 2026-11-04 13:19 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $487 $1,412 2.90x 2026-11-04 13:19 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [grochalek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/grochalek) $484 $1,365 2.82x 2026-11-09 20:09 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $484 $1,071 2.21x 2026-11-07 21:12 UTC

[★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-field-tested) [Numero21](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Numero21) $491 $866 1.76x 2026-11-03 12:34 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=ferro-joker)

[Desert Eagle | Code Red weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red) Hidden $484 $88.11 0.18x 2026-11-09 20:09 UTC

[SSG 08 | Dragonfire weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire) Hidden $484 $269 0.56x 2026-11-09 20:09 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [grochalek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/grochalek) $484 $1,365 2.82x 2026-11-09 20:09 UTC

[AWP | Phobos weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos) [code VESU](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/code%20VESU) $484 $4.19 0.01x 2026-11-09 15:43 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $484 $1,071 2.21x 2026-11-07 21:12 UTC

[USP-S | Kill Confirmed weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed) Hidden $484 $160 0.33x 2026-11-07 21:12 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new) [grochalek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/grochalek) $484 $162 0.34x 2026-11-07 21:12 UTC

[USP-S | Bleeding Edge weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge) [code VESU](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/code%20VESU) $483 $2.56 0.01x 2026-11-06 12:07 UTC

[AK-47 | The Empress weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress) Hidden $483 $181 0.37x 2026-11-05 20:53 UTC

[USP-S | The Traitor weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor) Hidden $483 $58.23 0.12x 2026-11-05 20:53 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $484 | 87.50% | 65 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $482 | 87.50% | 65 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $484 | 87.50% | 65 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $483 | 87.50% | 65 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $487 | 87.50% | 65 |
| 2 Nov, 22:28 UTC | $491 | 87.50% | 65 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 4.3% classified 4.3% covert 62.6% Covert 4.3% Ancient 0.9% red 1.7% restricted 4.6% Mythical 5.4% violet 4.3% #8847ff 6.5% uncommon 0.9% best hit $1,652 (3.39x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt