---
title: "FERRO case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "FERRO ($30.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.47% from 65 items with odds, observed 83.21% over 3,988 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/ferro
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [FERRO](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/ferro)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · FERRO

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/ferro?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/ferro?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/ferro) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/ferro?window=all)

Price · $30.00

Advertised RTP · 87.47% · EV $26.24 from 65 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 83.21% · 3,988 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 11.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 62.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 78.01% ±16.32 616 openings

7 days · 83.42% ±6.73 3,526 openings

30 days · 83.21% ±6.34 3,988 openings

since tracking started · 83.21% ±6.34 3,988 openings

61.0% 78.0% 95.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/ferro?window=24h) | 616 | 78.01% ±16.3 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/ferro?window=7d) | 3,526 | 83.42% ±6.73 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/ferro) | 3,988 | 83.21% ±6.34 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/ferro?window=all) | 3,988 | 83.21% ±6.34 | −1.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 65 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,994 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,910 | 1.5% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,616 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,342 | 1.5% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,066 | 1.2% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 2,500 | $840 | 1.3% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.63× |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-well-worn) | 1 in 2,500 | $756 | 1.2% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $395 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,111 | $385 | 1.3% | 1 | 3.6 | 0.28× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $300 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $280 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $269 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $261 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $256 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $242 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-well-worn) | 1 in 3,333 | $237 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,500 | $224 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,500 | $219 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 2,500 | $217 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-well-worn) | 1 in 2,500 | $207 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $207 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 1,429 | $193 | 0.5% | 0 | 2.8 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-roll-cage-factory-new) | 1 in 556 | $184 | 1.3% | 9 | 7.2 | 1.25× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $164 | 1.3% | 8 | 8.0 | 1.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-well-worn) | 1 in 833 | $152 | 0.7% | 0 | 4.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $147 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,111 | $140 | 0.5% | 0 | 3.6 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,429 | $132 | 0.4% | 0 | 2.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $131 | 0.5% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-factory-new) | 1 in 233 | $112 | 1.8% | 0 | 17.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 44 | $106 | 9.0% | 0 | 89.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $102 | 9.4% | 0 | 97.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 81 | $76.80 | 3.6% | 0 | 49.5 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-battle-scarred) | 1 in 37 | $71.12 | 7.4% | 0 | 108.6 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-minimal-wear) | 1 in 104 | $68.68 | 2.5% | 0 | 38.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 112 | $60.24 | 2.0% | 0 | 35.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 71 | $55.28 | 3.0% | 0 | 56.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 1 in 68 | $54.01 | 3.0% | 0 | 59.1 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 65 | $53.95 | 3.2% | 0 | 61.9 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-well-worn) | 1 in 64 | $53.49 | 3.2% | 0 | 62.7 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-battle-scarred) | 1 in 58 | $51.26 | 3.4% | 0 | 68.7 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 24 | $43.22 | 6.8% | 0 | 164.2 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $42.34 | 5.1% | 0 | 127.4 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $35.22 | 6.2% | 0 | 184.1 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-factory-new) | 1 in 294 | $34.75 | 0.5% | 0 | 13.6 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $34.18 | 6.4% | 0 | 194.9 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-factory-new) | 1 in 526 | $15.92 | 0.1% | 0 | 7.6 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-minimal-wear) | 1 in 227 | $8.18 | 0.1% | 0 | 17.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-factory-new) | 1 in 93 | $6.66 | 0.3% | 0 | 42.7 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $5.69 | 0.1% | 0 | 20.0 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 93 | $5.58 | 0.2% | 0 | 42.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $5.02 | 0.5% | 0 | 110.2 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-well-worn) | 1 in 47 | $4.02 | 0.3% | 0 | 85.1 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 76 | $3.00 | 0.2% | 0 | 52.7 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $2.95 | 0.3% | 0 | 105.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $2.89 | 0.4% | 0 | 137.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $2.52 | 0.4% | 0 | 165.4 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-well-worn) | 1 in 41 | $2.48 | 0.2% | 0 | 97.9 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $2.46 | 0.2% | 0 | 100.2 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-well-worn) | 1 in 27 | $2.36 | 0.3% | 0 | 145.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $2.19 | 0.7% | 0 | 350.7 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-battle-scarred) | 1 in 24 | $2.12 | 0.3% | 0 | 167.7 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-well-worn) | 1 in 24 | $1.29 | 0.2% | 0 | 167.7 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $1.29 | 0.2% | 0 | 167.7 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $1.21 | 0.2% | 0 | 182.9 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $1.03 | 0.3% | 0 | 338.3 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/ferro`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-well-worn) Hidden $30.00 $1,910 63.68x 2026-11-08 18:24 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-well-worn) Hidden $30.00 $1,910 63.68x 2026-11-08 01:51 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [4](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/4) $30.00 $1,412 47.06x 2026-11-04 17:08 UTC

[★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $30.00 $846 28.19x 2026-11-07 19:17 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=ferro)

[M4A4 | Sheet Lightning weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning) Hidden $30.00 $2.87 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:02 UTC

[AWP | Phobos weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos) Hidden $30.00 $3.34 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:02 UTC

[USP-S | The Traitor weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor) [Wuj WodzU](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Wuj%20WodzU) $30.00 $40.44 1.35x 2026-11-11 13:02 UTC

[USP-S | The Traitor weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor) Hidden $30.00 $40.44 1.35x 2026-11-11 13:02 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Mulberry weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry) Hidden $30.00 $1.96 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:02 UTC

[M4A4 | Sheet Lightning weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning) [Wuj WodzU](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Wuj%20WodzU) $30.00 $2.87 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:02 UTC

[M4A4 | Sheet Lightning weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning) Hidden $30.00 $2.87 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:02 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Code Red weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red) Hidden $30.00 $55.73 1.86x 2026-11-11 13:02 UTC

[USP-S | Kill Confirmed weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed) [Wuj WodzU](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Wuj%20WodzU) $30.00 $74.26 2.48x 2026-11-11 13:02 UTC

[AWP | Wildfire weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire) Hidden $30.00 $52.50 1.75x 2026-11-11 13:02 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $30.00 | 87.47% | 65 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $30.00 | 87.59% | 65 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $30.00 | 87.90% | 65 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $30.00 | 88.34% | 65 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $30.00 | 87.59% | 65 |
| 9 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $30.00 | 87.45% | 65 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $30.00 | 87.59% | 65 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $30.00 | 87.45% | 65 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $30.00 | 87.86% | 65 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $30.00 | 87.00% | 65 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $30.00 | 87.41% | 65 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $30.00 | 86.74% | 65 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $30.00 | 87.56% | 65 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $30.00 | 87.27% | 65 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $30.00 | 87.54% | 65 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $30.00 | 87.56% | 65 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $30.00 | 87.26% | 65 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 0.0% classified 0.0% covert 28.4% Covert 0.2% Ancient 0.4% red 7.8% restricted 15.0% Mythical 9.8% violet 17.0% #8847ff 17.1% uncommon 4.2% best hit $1,910 (63.68x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.47 on average: an expected loss of $12.53 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt