---
title: "FLICK JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "FLICK JOKER ($37.47) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.49% from 24 items with odds, observed 13.23% over 7,473 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/flick-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:58Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [FLICK JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/flick-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · FLICK JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/flick-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/flick-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/flick-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/flick-joker?window=all)

Price · $37.47

Advertised RTP · 87.49% · EV $32.78 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 13.23% · 7,473 openings, odds method

Variance · 9.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 24 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 91.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 12.80% ±17.76 1,151 openings

7 days · 13.13% ±7.40 6,330 openings

30 days · 13.23% ±6.81 7,473 openings

since tracking started · 13.23% ±6.81 7,473 openings

-0.5% 43.8% 88.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.38% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (6.42% – 20.04%, 7,473 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/flick-joker?window=24h) | 1,151 | 12.80% ±17.8 | −8.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/flick-joker?window=7d) | 6,330 | 13.13% ±7.40 | −19.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/flick-joker) | 7,473 | 13.23% ±6.81 | −21.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/flick-joker?window=all) | 7,473 | 13.23% ±6.81 | −21.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,546 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sticker \| Flipsid3 Tactics (Holo) \| Katowice 2015 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flipsid3-tactics-holo-katowice-2015) | 1 in 24 | $576 | 73.2% | 0 | 314.4 | 0.00× |
| [Sticker \| rox (Holo) \| Antwerp 2022 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rox-holo-antwerp-2022) | 1 in 24 | $107 | 13.5% | 0 | 314.4 | 0.00× |
| [Sticker \| Crimson Web Poison Frog (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-crimson-web-poison-frog-foil) | 1 in 24 | $24.98 | 3.2% | 318 | 314.4 | 1.01× |
| [Sticker \| Neon Opal Strafe (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-neon-opal-strafe-holo) | 1 in 24 | $14.21 | 1.8% | 331 | 314.4 | 1.05× |
| [Sticker \| Opal Flick (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-opal-flick-holo) | 1 in 24 | $10.77 | 1.4% | 372 | 314.4 | 1.18× |
| [Sticker \| Battle Scarred (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-battle-scarred-holo) | 1 in 24 | $9.93 | 1.3% | 332 | 314.4 | 1.06× |
| [Sticker \| Loving Eyes (Holo) sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-loving-eyes-holo) | 1 in 24 | $6.98 | 0.9% | 356 | 314.4 | 1.13× |
| [Sticker \| Kawaii CT (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kawaii-ct-holo) | 1 in 24 | $6.26 | 0.8% | 313 | 314.4 | 1.00× |
| [Sticker \| Showdown (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-showdown-foil) | 1 in 24 | $5.31 | 0.7% | 346 | 314.4 | 1.10× |
| [Sticker \| Kill Count (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kill-count-holo) | 1 in 24 | $4.93 | 0.6% | 333 | 314.4 | 1.06× |
| [Sticker \| TV Installation (Lenticular) sticker · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tv-installation-lenticular) | 1 in 24 | $3.73 | 0.5% | 333 | 314.4 | 1.06× |
| [Sticker \| Lurker (Foil) sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lurker-foil) | 1 in 24 | $3.35 | 0.4% | 346 | 314.4 | 1.10× |
| [Sticker \| Approaching Site (Foil) sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-approaching-site-foil) | 1 in 24 | $2.36 | 0.3% | 348 | 314.4 | 1.11× |
| [Sticker \| Sherry (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sherry-holo) | 1 in 24 | $2.17 | 0.3% | 349 | 314.4 | 1.11× |
| [Sticker \| Guardian Dragon (Foil) sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-guardian-dragon-foil) | 1 in 24 | $1.84 | 0.2% | 317 | 314.4 | 1.01× |
| [Sticker \| Fire in the Hole (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fire-in-the-hole-holo) | 1 in 24 | $1.70 | 0.2% | 309 | 314.4 | 0.98× |
| [Sticker \| Bloodthirster (Foil) sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bloodthirster-foil) | 1 in 24 | $1.44 | 0.2% | 359 | 314.4 | 1.14× |
| [Sticker \| Ancient Beast (Foil) sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ancient-beast-foil) | 1 in 24 | $1.41 | 0.2% | 337 | 314.4 | 1.07× |
| [Sticker \| Skin Lover (Lenticular) sticker · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-skin-lover-lenticular) | 1 in 24 | $1.38 | 0.2% | 359 | 314.4 | 1.14× |
| [Sticker \| Boost (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-boost-holo) | 1 in 24 | $0.84 | 0.1% | 341 | 314.4 | 1.08× |
| [Sticker \| Hi, My Game Is sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hi-my-game-is) | 1 in 24 | $0.31 | 0.0% | 352 | 314.4 | 1.12× |
| [Sticker \| The Guru sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-the-guru) | 1 in 24 | $0.28 | 0.0% | 370 | 314.4 | 1.18× |
| [Sticker \| Zeused sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-zeused) | 1 in 24 | $0.26 | 0.0% | 347 | 314.4 | 1.10× |
| [Sticker \| Rush More sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rush-more) | 1 in 24 | $0.20 | 0.0% | 378 | 314.4 | 1.20× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/flick-joker`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=flick-joker)

[Sticker | Crimson Web Poison Frog (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-crimson-web-poison-frog-foil) Hidden $37.47 $24.98 0.67x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC

[Sticker | The Guru sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-the-guru) [SoBoL BuK](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/SoBoL%20BuK) $37.47 $0.28 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC

[Sticker | Battle Scarred (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-battle-scarred-holo) [Domision](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Domision) $37.47 $9.93 0.27x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC

[Sticker | Approaching Site (Foil) sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-approaching-site-foil) Hidden $37.47 $2.36 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC

[Sticker | Kawaii CT (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kawaii-ct-holo) Hidden $37.47 $6.26 0.17x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC

[Sticker | Boost (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-boost-holo) [SoBoL BuK](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/SoBoL%20BuK) $37.47 $0.84 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC

[Sticker | Rush More sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rush-more) Hidden $37.47 $0.20 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC

[Sticker | Neon Opal Strafe (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-neon-opal-strafe-holo) Hidden $37.47 $14.21 0.38x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC

[Sticker | Battle Scarred (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-battle-scarred-holo) [moGGed](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/moGGed) $37.47 $9.93 0.27x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC

[Sticker | Showdown (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-showdown-foil) Hidden $37.47 $5.31 0.14x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $37.47 | 87.49% | 24 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $37.46 | 87.50% | 24 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $37.48 | 87.50% | 24 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $34.95 | 87.49% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $35.08 | 87.50% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $34.96 | 87.50% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $34.99 | 87.49% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $35.00 | 87.49% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $34.96 | 87.50% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $35.03 | 87.50% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $35.01 | 87.51% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $35.03 | 87.50% | 24 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $35.01 | 87.51% | 24 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $34.86 | 87.51% | 24 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $35.04 | 87.51% | 24 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $34.86 | 87.51% | 24 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $34.99 | 87.50% | 24 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $35.10 | 87.49% | 24 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $34.99 | 87.50% | 24 |
| 3 Nov, 07:27 UTC | $35.10 | 87.49% | 24 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed remarkable 16.7% pink 12.5% exotic 8.3% Mythical 12.5% #8847ff 4.2% violet 8.3% red 4.2% Legendary 8.3% Exotic 4.2% Ancient 4.2% blue 12.5% Rare 4.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.49 on average: an expected loss of $12.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt