---
title: "FLIP KNIVES JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "FLIP KNIVES JOKER ($304.91) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 37 items with odds, observed 88.25% over 113 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/flip-knives-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T23:40Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [FLIP KNIVES JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/flip-knives-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · FLIP KNIVES JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/flip-knives-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/flip-knives-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/flip-knives-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/flip-knives-joker?window=all)

Price · $304.91

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $266.80 from 37 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.25% · 113 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 40.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 54.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 15 openings · below min

7 days · 89.76% ±7.18 100 openings

30 days · 88.25% ±6.77 113 openings

since tracking started · 88.25% ±6.77 113 openings

70.5% 90.0% 109.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/flip-knives-joker?window=24h) | 15 | 90.07% ±18.9 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/flip-knives-joker?window=7d) | 100 | 89.76% ±7.18 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/flip-knives-joker) | 113 | 88.25% ±6.77 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/flip-knives-joker?window=all) | 113 | 88.25% ±6.77 | +0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 37 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 139 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $476 | 11.2% | 10 | 8.7 | 1.15× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 48 | $459 | 3.6% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $404 | 4.7% | 0 | 4.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $396 | 4.6% | 0 | 4.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $359 | 8.4% | 8 | 8.7 | 0.92× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 64 | $359 | 2.1% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $357 | 4.2% | 0 | 4.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $345 | 8.1% | 8 | 8.7 | 0.92× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 48 | $332 | 2.6% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $318 | 7.4% | 3 | 8.7 | 0.35× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $317 | 3.7% | 0 | 4.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 48 | $309 | 2.4% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) | 1 in 64 | $268 | 1.6% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $267 | 3.1% | 0 | 4.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $260 | 6.1% | 5 | 8.7 | 0.58× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 48 | $247 | 1.9% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 48 | $239 | 1.9% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $227 | 2.7% | 0 | 4.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $207 | 1.6% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 48 | $182 | 1.4% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 48 | $181 | 1.4% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 48 | $181 | 1.4% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 48 | $177 | 1.4% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $170 | 1.3% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 48 | $167 | 1.3% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-freehand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 48 | $167 | 1.3% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $165 | 1.3% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $161 | 1.3% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $157 | 1.2% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 48 | $150 | 1.2% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $141 | 1.1% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 64 | $108 | 0.6% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 64 | $75.78 | 0.4% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) | 1 in 64 | $68.07 | 0.4% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 64 | $65.36 | 0.4% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 64 | $53.66 | 0.3% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 64 | $51.98 | 0.3% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/flip-knives-joker`, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $319 $506 1.59x 2026-11-03 15:43 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $319 $506 1.59x 2026-11-03 14:36 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $319 $506 1.59x 2026-11-03 14:33 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=flip-knives-joker)

[★ Flip Knife | Autotronic knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-autotronic) Hidden $305 $335 1.10x 2026-11-11 22:15 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Crimson Web knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web) Hidden $305 $272 0.89x 2026-11-11 22:15 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [grochalek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/grochalek) $305 $318 1.04x 2026-11-11 22:15 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Crimson Web knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web) Hidden $305 $272 0.89x 2026-11-11 21:05 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $305 $476 1.56x 2026-11-11 21:05 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $305 $345 1.13x 2026-11-11 21:05 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Crimson Web knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web) [XD](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/XD) $305 $272 0.89x 2026-11-11 21:05 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Case Hardened knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-case-hardened) Hidden $305 $289 0.95x 2026-11-11 18:59 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Bright Water knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-bright-water) Hidden $305 $163 0.53x 2026-11-11 18:59 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Case Hardened knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-case-hardened) Hidden $305 $289 0.95x 2026-11-11 18:59 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $305 | 87.50% | 37 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $313 | 87.50% | 37 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $314 | 87.50% | 37 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $313 | 87.50% | 37 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $316 | 87.50% | 37 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $312 | 87.50% | 37 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $313 | 87.50% | 37 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $315 | 87.50% | 37 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $317 | 87.50% | 37 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $315 | 87.50% | 37 |
| 4 Nov, 04:46 UTC | $318 | 87.50% | 37 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed #ffd700 8.3% sunny 12.5% covert 75.5% Immortal 2.1% Ancient 1.6% best hit $506 (1.59x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt