---
title: "FLIP KNIVES case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "FLIP KNIVES ($200.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 37 items with odds, observed 88.73% over 619 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/flip-knives
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:07Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [FLIP KNIVES](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/flip-knives)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · FLIP KNIVES

A case on Casehug (CS2 WEAPONS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/flip-knives?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/flip-knives?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/flip-knives) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/flip-knives?window=all)

Price · $200.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $175.00 from 37 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.73% · 619 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 32.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 84.09% ±9.27 107 openings

7 days · 88.46% ±4.14 534 openings

30 days · 88.73% ±3.86 619 openings

since tracking started · 88.73% ±3.86 619 openings

74.0% 84.0% 94.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/flip-knives?window=24h) | 107 | 84.09% ±9.27 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/flip-knives?window=7d) | 534 | 88.46% ±4.14 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/flip-knives) | 619 | 88.73% ±3.86 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/flip-knives?window=all) | 619 | 88.73% ±3.86 | +0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 37 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 622 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 70 | $481 | 3.9% | 6 | 8.8 | 0.68× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 345 | $458 | 0.8% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 149 | $404 | 1.5% | 0 | 4.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 123 | $400 | 1.9% | 0 | 5.0 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 54 | $371 | 3.9% | 17 | 11.4 | 1.49× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 54 | $369 | 3.9% | 10 | 11.5 | 0.87× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $359 | 2.0% | 0 | 6.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 130 | $353 | 1.6% | 0 | 4.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $345 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 189 | $330 | 1.0% | 0 | 3.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 47 | $318 | 3.9% | 12 | 13.4 | 0.90× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 208 | $309 | 0.8% | 0 | 3.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) | 1 in 278 | $269 | 0.6% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 41 | $266 | 3.7% | 0 | 15.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $261 | 6.1% | 20 | 25.5 | 0.78× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 68 | $247 | 2.1% | 0 | 9.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 60 | $239 | 2.3% | 0 | 10.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $232 | 3.7% | 0 | 17.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $208 | 2.5% | 0 | 12.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $208 | 2.6% | 0 | 13.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $182 | 3.5% | 0 | 20.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $178 | 3.3% | 0 | 20.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $177 | 3.4% | 0 | 21.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $177 | 4.1% | 0 | 25.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $170 | 3.6% | 0 | 22.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $167 | 3.5% | 0 | 23.0 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $166 | 4.2% | 0 | 27.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $163 | 3.6% | 0 | 24.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-freehand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $163 | 3.6% | 0 | 23.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $160 | 3.5% | 0 | 23.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $154 | 3.5% | 0 | 24.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $109 | 1.8% | 0 | 17.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $74.67 | 2.1% | 0 | 30.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $66.23 | 1.6% | 0 | 26.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $65.16 | 2.2% | 0 | 36.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 18 | $54.68 | 1.8% | 0 | 35.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $51.70 | 1.8% | 0 | 37.8 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/flip-knives`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [edek z fabryki kredek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/edek%20z%20fabryki%20kredek) $200 $506 2.53x 2026-11-03 00:29 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [grochalek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/grochalek) $200 $506 2.53x 2026-11-02 21:56 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=flip-knives)

[★ Flip Knife | Black Laminate knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-black-laminate) Hidden $200 $179 0.89x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[AK-47 | Asiimov weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov) Hidden $200 $58.45 0.29x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Autotronic knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-autotronic) [roninbaby](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/roninbaby) $200 $296 1.48x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Freehand knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-freehand) Hidden $200 $169 0.84x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

[AK-47 | Asiimov weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov) [N:OW](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/N%3AOW) $200 $58.45 0.29x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Damascus Steel knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-damascus-steel) [PociagTomasz](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/PociagTomasz) $200 $171 0.86x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Freehand knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-freehand) Hidden $200 $169 0.84x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $200 $371 1.85x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Autotronic knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-autotronic) [roninbaby](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/roninbaby) $200 $296 1.48x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC

[M4A1-S | Golden Coil weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil) Hidden $200 $82.74 0.41x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $200 | 87.50% | 37 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $200 | 87.57% | 37 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $200 | 87.44% | 37 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $200 | 87.46% | 37 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $200 | 87.50% | 37 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $200 | 87.46% | 37 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $200 | 87.44% | 37 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $200 | 87.91% | 37 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $200 | 87.38% | 37 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $200 | 87.49% | 37 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $200 | 87.59% | 37 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $200 | 87.49% | 37 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $200 | 87.45% | 37 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $200 | 87.87% | 37 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $200 | 87.68% | 37 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $200 | 87.46% | 37 |
| 3 Nov, 09:33 UTC | $200 | 88.45% | 37 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $200 | 88.00% | 37 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed #ffd700 5.5% sunny 7.0% covert 80.9% Immortal 2.2% Ancient 4.3% best hit $506 (2.53x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt