---
title: "FROSTY JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "FROSTY JOKER ($25.89) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 50 items with odds, observed 91.38% over 3,245 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/frosty-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T21:06Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [FROSTY JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/frosty-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · FROSTY JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/frosty-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/frosty-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/frosty-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/frosty-joker?window=all)

Price · $25.89

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $22.65 from 50 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.38% · 3,245 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 77.85% ±29.97 222 openings

7 days · 93.07% ±8.78 2,609 openings

30 days · 91.38% ±7.89 3,245 openings

since tracking started · 91.38% ±7.89 3,245 openings

47.0% 77.8% 108.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/frosty-joker?window=24h) | 222 | 77.85% ±30.0 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/frosty-joker?window=7d) | 2,609 | 93.07% ±8.78 | +1.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/frosty-joker) | 3,245 | 91.38% ±7.89 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/frosty-joker?window=all) | 3,245 | 91.38% ±7.89 | +0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 50 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,249 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · sunny · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 20 | $250 | 55.1% | 183 | 162.5 | 1.13× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $128 | 28.3% | 150 | 162.5 | 0.92× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $18.77 | 4.1% | 142 | 162.5 | 0.87× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $15.58 | 3.4% | 158 | 162.5 | 0.97× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $11.57 | 1.3% | 0 | 81.2 | 0.00× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $10.31 | 1.1% | 0 | 81.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $9.90 | 0.5% | 0 | 40.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $8.92 | 0.7% | 0 | 54.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-factory-new) | 1 in 60 | $6.96 | 0.5% | 0 | 54.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 60 | $6.72 | 0.5% | 0 | 54.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $5.40 | 0.3% | 0 | 40.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $5.39 | 0.3% | 0 | 40.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 80 | $5.08 | 0.3% | 0 | 40.6 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Serenity (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-factory-new) | 1 in 60 | $4.80 | 0.4% | 0 | 54.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 60 | $4.16 | 0.3% | 0 | 54.2 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $3.06 | 0.2% | 0 | 40.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 60 | $2.69 | 0.2% | 0 | 54.2 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Serenity (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-minimal-wear) | 1 in 60 | $2.69 | 0.2% | 0 | 54.2 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $2.54 | 0.2% | 0 | 54.2 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Serenity (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $2.45 | 0.2% | 0 | 54.2 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Neural Net (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $1.96 | 0.2% | 0 | 81.2 | 0.00× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Powercore (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-powercore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $1.82 | 0.2% | 0 | 81.2 | 0.00× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Powercore (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-powercore-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $1.50 | 0.2% | 0 | 81.2 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $1.38 | 0.1% | 0 | 40.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Capillary (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-minimal-wear) | 1 in 60 | $1.35 | 0.1% | 0 | 54.1 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-battle-scarred) | 1 in 80 | $1.24 | 0.1% | 0 | 40.6 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $1.21 | 0.1% | 0 | 40.6 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $1.04 | 0.1% | 0 | 40.6 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Neural Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $0.98 | 0.1% | 0 | 81.2 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Allure (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-minimal-wear) | 1 in 60 | $0.89 | 0.1% | 0 | 54.1 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $0.87 | 0.0% | 0 | 40.6 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $0.87 | 0.0% | 0 | 40.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Capillary (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-battle-scarred) | 1 in 60 | $0.86 | 0.1% | 0 | 54.2 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Capillary (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $0.81 | 0.1% | 0 | 54.2 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $0.72 | 0.0% | 0 | 40.6 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-battle-scarred) | 1 in 80 | $0.69 | 0.0% | 0 | 40.6 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $0.66 | 0.0% | 0 | 40.6 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-well-worn) | 1 in 60 | $0.66 | 0.0% | 0 | 54.1 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $0.61 | 0.0% | 0 | 54.2 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-battle-scarred) | 1 in 60 | $0.52 | 0.0% | 0 | 54.2 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $0.46 | 0.0% | 0 | 40.6 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-battle-scarred) | 1 in 80 | $0.46 | 0.0% | 0 | 40.6 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Allure (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-battle-scarred) | 1 in 60 | $0.44 | 0.0% | 0 | 54.2 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $0.44 | 0.0% | 0 | 40.6 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $0.44 | 0.0% | 0 | 40.6 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Allure (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-well-worn) | 1 in 60 | $0.43 | 0.0% | 0 | 54.2 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $0.41 | 0.0% | 0 | 40.6 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-battle-scarred) | 1 in 80 | $0.41 | 0.0% | 0 | 40.6 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hideout (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hideout-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.28 | 0.1% | 178 | 162.5 | 1.10× |
| [Nova \| Dark Sigil (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-dark-sigil-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.26 | 0.1% | 168 | 162.5 | 1.03× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/frosty-joker`, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=frosty-joker)

[Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-dark-sigil-factory-new) Hidden $25.89 $0.26 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:59 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Hybrid weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid) Hidden $25.89 $0.53 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:59 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Cardiac weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac) Hidden $25.89 $10.94 0.42x 2026-11-11 20:59 UTC

[AK-47 | Ice Coaled weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled) [kieron](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/kieron) $25.89 $6.44 0.25x 2026-11-11 20:59 UTC

[AWP | Capillary weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary) Hidden $25.89 $1.01 0.04x 2026-11-11 20:55 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Serenity weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity) [bajkowy\_krap](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/bajkowy_krap) $25.89 $3.31 0.13x 2026-11-11 20:55 UTC

[AK-47 | Ice Coaled weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled) Hidden $25.89 $6.44 0.25x 2026-11-11 20:53 UTC

[MAC-10 | Allure weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure) Hidden $25.89 $0.59 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:53 UTC

[AWP | Capillary weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary) [kieron](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/kieron) $25.89 $1.01 0.04x 2026-11-11 20:53 UTC

[FAMAS | Neural Net weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net) Hidden $25.89 $1.47 0.06x 2026-11-11 20:45 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $25.89 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $25.33 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $25.47 | 87.51% | 50 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $25.36 | 87.51% | 50 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $25.20 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $24.95 | 87.51% | 50 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $25.20 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $25.07 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $25.20 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $25.07 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $25.13 | 87.51% | 50 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $25.01 | 87.52% | 50 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $25.06 | 87.52% | 50 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $25.01 | 87.52% | 50 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $25.69 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $25.06 | 87.52% | 50 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $25.69 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $25.05 | 87.51% | 50 |
| 4 Nov, 04:46 UTC | $25.69 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $25.97 | 87.48% | 50 |
| 3 Nov, 15:55 UTC | $25.94 | 87.51% | 50 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $25.97 | 87.48% | 50 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed sunny 5.0% covert 5.0% classified 12.5% pink 10.8% Legendary 2.5% Mythical 6.7% uncommon 3.3% Classified 1.3% #d32ee6 1.3% restricted 17.5% #8847ff 6.3% violet 12.9% Rare 1.7% #4b69ff 1.7% milspec 1.7% blue 10.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt