---
title: "FROSTY case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "FROSTY ($0.80) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 50 items with odds, observed 86.12% over 43.2K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/frosty
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:39Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [FROSTY](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/frosty)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · FROSTY

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/frosty?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/frosty?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/frosty) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/frosty?window=all)

Price · $0.80

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $0.70 from 50 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.12% · 43.2K openings, odds method

Variance · 5.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 84.19% ±6.51 5,159 openings

7 days · 86.03% ±2.43 36.7K openings

30 days · 86.12% ±2.24 43.2K openings

since tracking started · 86.12% ±2.24 43.2K openings

77.0% 84.3% 91.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/frosty?window=24h) | 5,159 | 84.19% ±6.51 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/frosty?window=7d) | 36.7K | 86.03% ±2.43 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/frosty) | 43.2K | 86.12% ±2.24 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/frosty?window=all) | 43.2K | 86.12% ±2.24 | −1.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 50 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 43.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · sunny · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 33,333 | $248 | 1.1% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.77× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14,286 | $121 | 1.2% | 3 | 3.0 | 0.99× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $20.53 | 0.3% | 1 | 4.3 | 0.23× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $15.18 | 0.4% | 10 | 8.7 | 1.15× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $10.92 | 0.2% | 0 | 4.3 | 0.00× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $10.37 | 0.4% | 0 | 13.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,316 | $8.90 | 1.0% | 0 | 33.0 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 935 | $8.73 | 1.3% | 0 | 46.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 559 | $6.74 | 1.7% | 0 | 77.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-factory-new) | 1 in 926 | $6.28 | 1.0% | 0 | 46.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 581 | $5.88 | 1.4% | 0 | 74.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 518 | $5.56 | 1.5% | 0 | 83.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 408 | $4.94 | 1.7% | 0 | 106.2 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Serenity (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-factory-new) | 1 in 521 | $4.56 | 1.3% | 0 | 83.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 242 | $4.43 | 2.6% | 0 | 179.1 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-minimal-wear) | 1 in 613 | $3.04 | 0.7% | 0 | 70.7 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Serenity (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-minimal-wear) | 1 in 184 | $2.71 | 2.1% | 0 | 235.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $2.66 | 2.3% | 0 | 259.7 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) | 1 in 149 | $2.51 | 2.4% | 0 | 291.4 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Serenity (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-field-tested) | 1 in 154 | $2.48 | 2.3% | 0 | 281.0 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Neural Net (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-minimal-wear) | 1 in 137 | $1.87 | 2.0% | 0 | 317.4 | 0.00× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Powercore (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-powercore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 104 | $1.82 | 2.5% | 0 | 415.8 | 0.00× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Powercore (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-powercore-field-tested) | 1 in 65 | $1.44 | 3.2% | 0 | 664.3 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-field-tested) | 1 in 129 | $1.39 | 1.5% | 0 | 337.4 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-battle-scarred) | 1 in 111 | $1.29 | 1.7% | 0 | 391.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Capillary (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-minimal-wear) | 1 in 132 | $1.29 | 1.4% | 0 | 329.6 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-well-worn) | 1 in 102 | $1.24 | 1.7% | 0 | 423.6 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-minimal-wear) | 1 in 154 | $1.07 | 1.0% | 0 | 281.0 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Neural Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $0.99 | 3.7% | 0 | 1131.3 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Allure (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-minimal-wear) | 1 in 132 | $0.95 | 1.0% | 0 | 329.6 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-minimal-wear) | 1 in 161 | $0.89 | 0.8% | 0 | 270.1 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Capillary (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-battle-scarred) | 1 in 59 | $0.86 | 2.1% | 0 | 740.6 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-minimal-wear) | 1 in 161 | $0.86 | 0.8% | 0 | 269.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Capillary (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-field-tested) | 1 in 56 | $0.84 | 2.1% | 0 | 776.2 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $0.69 | 2.7% | 0 | 1197.7 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-battle-scarred) | 1 in 36 | $0.69 | 2.8% | 0 | 1210.7 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-well-worn) | 1 in 35 | $0.67 | 2.8% | 0 | 1248.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $0.66 | 2.9% | 0 | 1332.9 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $0.58 | 3.1% | 0 | 1597.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $0.54 | 3.1% | 0 | 1765.3 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $0.46 | 2.1% | 0 | 1404.5 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Allure (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $0.44 | 3.0% | 0 | 2076.6 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $0.44 | 2.2% | 0 | 1494.3 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Allure (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-battle-scarred) | 1 in 19 | $0.41 | 3.1% | 0 | 2292.1 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-battle-scarred) | 1 in 26 | $0.41 | 2.2% | 0 | 1649.9 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-battle-scarred) | 1 in 28 | $0.41 | 2.1% | 0 | 1536.3 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-well-worn) | 1 in 27 | $0.40 | 2.1% | 0 | 1590.1 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $0.40 | 2.1% | 0 | 1590.1 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hideout (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hideout-factory-new) | 14.5% | $0.28 | 5.8% | 6,442 | 6309.2 | 1.02× |
| [Nova \| Dark Sigil (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-dark-sigil-factory-new) | 15.0% | $0.26 | 5.6% | 6,623 | 6486.1 | 1.02× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/frosty`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · sunny · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $0.80 $247 309.1x 2026-11-09 20:11 UTC

[AK-47 | Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) [woot](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/woot) $0.80 $121 150.7x 2026-11-03 06:54 UTC

[AK-47 | Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) [Sherlock H0es](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Sherlock%20H0es) $0.80 $117 146.6x 2026-11-05 16:56 UTC

[AK-47 | Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) [.wiczosek12skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/.wiczosek12skins.army) $0.80 $117 146.2x 2026-11-06 18:24 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=frosty)

[MAC-10 | Allure weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure) Hidden $0.80 $0.46 0.58x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Hybrid weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid) Hidden $0.80 $0.43 0.54x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Hybrid weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid) Hidden $0.80 $0.43 0.54x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Powercore weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-powercore) [KomsyraCS2.me](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/KomsyraCS2.me) $0.80 $1.59 1.99x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[FAMAS | Neural Net weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net) Hidden $0.80 $1.18 1.47x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Powercore weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-powercore) Hidden $0.80 $1.59 1.99x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-dark-sigil-factory-new) Hidden $0.80 $0.26 0.33x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-dark-sigil-factory-new) [KomsyraCS2.me](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/KomsyraCS2.me) $0.80 $0.26 0.33x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-dark-sigil-factory-new) Hidden $0.80 $0.26 0.33x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[MAC-10 | Allure weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure) Hidden $0.80 $0.46 0.58x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $0.80 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $0.80 | 87.22% | 50 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $0.80 | 86.73% | 50 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $0.80 | 86.72% | 50 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $0.80 | 87.70% | 50 |
| 9 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $0.80 | 88.80% | 50 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $0.80 | 87.70% | 50 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $0.80 | 88.80% | 50 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $0.80 | 88.33% | 50 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $0.80 | 88.27% | 50 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $0.80 | 87.61% | 50 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $0.80 | 86.96% | 50 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $0.80 | 87.99% | 50 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.80 | 88.12% | 50 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $0.80 | 86.97% | 50 |
| 3 Nov, 15:55 UTC | $0.80 | 87.18% | 50 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $0.80 | 86.99% | 50 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed sunny 0.0% covert 0.0% classified 0.1% pink 3.4% Legendary 0.3% uncommon 3.9% Mythical 4.5% Classified 0.2% #d32ee6 0.2% restricted 22.5% violet 21.2% #8847ff 10.1% Rare 0.8% #4b69ff 1.7% milspec 1.8% blue 29.5% best hit $247 (309.1x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt