--- title: "FROZEN SOUL JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops" description: "FROZEN SOUL JOKER ($2,116.93) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 30 items with odds, observed 94.21% over 1,712 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/frozen-soul-joker rendered: 2026-11-12T04:13Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [FROZEN SOUL JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/frozen-soul-joker) # [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · FROZEN SOUL JOKER A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/frozen-soul-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/frozen-soul-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/frozen-soul-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/frozen-soul-joker?window=all) Price · $2,116.93 Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $1,852.31 from 30 items Observed RTP, 30d · 94.21% · 1,712 openings, odds method Variance · 2.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 81.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 99.98% ±9.75 1,188 openings 30 days · 94.21% ±8.10 1,712 openings since tracking started · 94.21% ±8.10 1,712 openings 85.5% 98.0% 110.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/frozen-soul-joker?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/frozen-soul-joker?window=7d) | 1,188 | 99.98% ±9.75 | +2.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/frozen-soul-joker) | 1,712 | 94.21% ±8.10 | +1.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/frozen-soul-joker?window=all) | 1,712 | 94.21% ±8.10 | +1.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,811 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $14.8K | 38.1% | 102 | 86.2 | 1.18× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 21 | $9,405 | 24.2% | 87 | 86.2 | 1.01× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Minimal Wear) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-minimal-wear) | 1 in 84 | $6,601 | 4.2% | 0 | 21.6 | 0.00× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-field-tested) | 1 in 84 | $4,161 | 2.7% | 0 | 21.6 | 0.00× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-well-worn) | 1 in 84 | $3,805 | 2.4% | 0 | 21.6 | 0.00× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 21 | $3,641 | 9.4% | 96 | 86.2 | 1.11× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) | 1 in 84 | $2,685 | 1.7% | 0 | 21.6 | 0.00× | | [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $1,476 | 3.8% | 88 | 86.2 | 1.02× | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 21 | $1,475 | 3.8% | 70 | 86.2 | 0.81× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 21 | $916 | 2.4% | 90 | 86.2 | 1.04× | | [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $804 | 2.1% | 83 | 86.2 | 0.96× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 21 | $533 | 1.4% | 79 | 86.2 | 0.92× | | [★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $361 | 0.9% | 81 | 86.2 | 0.94× | | [Glock-18 \| Ghost Protocol (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ghost-protocol-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $346 | 0.9% | 99 | 86.2 | 1.15× | | [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 63 | $160 | 0.1% | 0 | 28.7 | 0.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $153 | 0.1% | 0 | 28.7 | 0.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 63 | $148 | 0.1% | 0 | 28.8 | 0.00× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $134 | 0.3% | 83 | 86.2 | 0.96× | | [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Stalker (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-stalker-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $77.74 | 0.2% | 71 | 86.2 | 0.82× | | [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-minimal-wear) | 1 in 84 | $73.36 | 0.0% | 0 | 21.6 | 0.00× | | [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-well-worn) | 1 in 84 | $73.23 | 0.0% | 0 | 21.6 | 0.00× | | [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-field-tested) | 1 in 84 | $68.21 | 0.0% | 0 | 21.6 | 0.00× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 21 | $67.57 | 0.2% | 89 | 86.2 | 1.03× | | [Galil AR \| Shattered (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-shattered-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $65.88 | 0.2% | 80 | 86.2 | 0.93× | | [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-battle-scarred) | 1 in 84 | $63.20 | 0.0% | 0 | 21.6 | 0.00× | | [USP-S \| Serum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $59.91 | 0.2% | 82 | 86.2 | 0.95× | | [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-well-worn) | 1 in 42 | $56.95 | 0.1% | 0 | 43.1 | 0.00× | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $54.96 | 0.1% | 83 | 86.2 | 0.96× | | [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $54.88 | 0.1% | 0 | 43.1 | 0.00× | | [Dual Berettas \| Black Limba (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-black-limba-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $54.54 | 0.1% | 97 | 86.2 | 1.12× | Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/frozen-soul-joker`, 12 Nov, 02:49 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) [mateous](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/mateous) $2,156 $15K 6.95x 2026-11-05 21:50 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $2,156 $15K 6.95x 2026-11-05 21:26 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $2,156 $15K 6.95x 2026-11-05 20:52 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) [grochalek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/grochalek) $2,156 $15K 6.95x 2026-11-05 20:49 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) [IsAmU](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/IsAmU) $2,156 $15K 6.95x 2026-11-05 18:01 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $2,156 $15K 6.95x 2026-11-05 17:58 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $2,156 $15K 6.95x 2026-11-05 17:58 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $2,156 $15K 6.95x 2026-11-05 17:57 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) [IsAmU](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/IsAmU) $2,156 $15K 6.95x 2026-11-05 17:56 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $2,156 $15K 6.95x 2026-11-05 17:56 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=frozen-soul-joker) [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $2,117 $916 0.43x 2026-11-10 02:49 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $2,117 $14.8K 7.01x 2026-11-10 02:49 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) Hidden $2,117 $67.57 0.03x 2026-11-10 02:49 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box) [GruchaGbałagan](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/GruchaGba%C5%82agan) $2,117 $4,313 2.04x 2026-11-10 02:49 UTC [Glock-18 | Ghost Protocol (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ghost-protocol-minimal-wear) Hidden $2,117 $346 0.16x 2026-11-10 01:05 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $2,117 $1,475 0.70x 2026-11-10 01:05 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) Hidden $2,117 $54.96 0.03x 2026-11-10 01:05 UTC [USP-S | Serum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-minimal-wear) [GruchaGbałagan](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/GruchaGba%C5%82agan) $2,117 $59.91 0.03x 2026-11-10 01:05 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [LukiSteve](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/LukiSteve) $2,117 $134 0.06x 2026-11-10 00:32 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) [LukiSteve](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/LukiSteve) $2,117 $804 0.38x 2026-11-10 00:32 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $2,117 | 87.50% | 30 | | 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $2,119 | 87.50% | 30 | | 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $2,136 | 87.50% | 30 | | 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $2,140 | 87.50% | 30 | | 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $2,143 | 87.50% | 30 | | 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $2,128 | 87.50% | 30 | | 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $2,143 | 87.50% | 30 | | 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $2,128 | 87.50% | 30 | | 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $2,156 | 87.50% | 30 | | 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $2,158 | 87.50% | 30 | | 3 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $2,161 | 87.50% | 30 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 57.1% legendary 2.4% extraordinary 2.4% rare 7.1% red 11.9% sunny 4.8% blue 9.5% classified 4.8% best hit $15K (6.95x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt