---
title: "FROZEN SOUL case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "FROZEN SOUL ($120.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.51% from 30 items with odds, observed 86.09% over 13.7K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/frozen-soul
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:09Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [FROZEN SOUL](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/frozen-soul)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · FROZEN SOUL

A case on Casehug (HALLOWEEN), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/frozen-soul?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/frozen-soul?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/frozen-soul) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/frozen-soul?window=all)

Price · $120.00

Advertised RTP · 87.51% · EV $105.01 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.09% · 13.7K openings, odds method

Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 33.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 66.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 86.09% ±2.32 10.4K openings

30 days · 86.09% ±2.02 13.7K openings

since tracking started · 86.09% ±2.02 13.7K openings

83.0% 86.0% 89.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/frozen-soul?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/frozen-soul?window=7d) | 10.4K | 86.09% ±2.32 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/frozen-soul) | 13.7K | 86.09% ±2.02 | −1.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/frozen-soul?window=all) | 13.7K | 86.09% ±2.02 | −1.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 13.7K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $14.8K | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 33,333 | $9,405 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Minimal Wear) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $6,601 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $4,161 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-well-worn) | 1 in 100,000 | $3,805 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 3,333 | $3,641 | 1.0% | 1 | 4.1 | 0.24× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50,000 | $2,685 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,250 | $1,476 | 1.1% | 8 | 11.0 | 0.73× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,250 | $1,475 | 1.1% | 8 | 11.0 | 0.73× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 769 | $916 | 1.1% | 14 | 17.9 | 0.78× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $804 | 1.1% | 17 | 20.6 | 0.83× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 455 | $533 | 1.1% | 26 | 30.2 | 0.86× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 51 | $361 | 6.7% | 269 | 269.1 | 1.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ghost Protocol (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ghost-protocol-minimal-wear) | 1 in 49 | $346 | 6.7% | 286 | 280.1 | 1.02× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $160 | 6.3% | 0 | 565.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $153 | 6.6% | 0 | 620.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 21 | $148 | 6.8% | 0 | 668.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 15.5% | $134 | 19.7% | 2,129 | 2127.1 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Stalker (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-stalker-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $77.74 | 5.6% | 1,019 | 1038.1 | 0.98× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $73.36 | 1.3% | 0 | 255.4 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-well-worn) | 1 in 54 | $73.23 | 1.3% | 0 | 255.4 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $68.21 | 1.3% | 0 | 282.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $67.57 | 5.2% | 1,011 | 1101.3 | 0.92× |
| [Galil AR \| Shattered (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-shattered-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $65.88 | 5.1% | 1,111 | 1110.9 | 1.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-battle-scarred) | 1 in 44 | $63.20 | 1.4% | 0 | 309.0 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Serum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $59.91 | 4.8% | 1,165 | 1156.2 | 1.01× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-well-worn) | 1 in 24 | $56.95 | 2.3% | 0 | 582.2 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $54.96 | 4.6% | 1,275 | 1201.5 | 1.06× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $54.88 | 2.3% | 0 | 609.7 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Black Limba (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-black-limba-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $54.54 | 4.5% | 1,131 | 1201.5 | 0.94× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/frozen-soul`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [Wołek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Wo%C5%82ek) $120 $3,641 30.34x 2026-11-09 22:09 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $120 $1,528 12.73x 2026-11-03 19:35 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $120 $1,513 12.61x 2026-11-05 00:40 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [愛](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%E6%84%9B) $120 $1,513 12.61x 2026-11-04 17:29 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $120 $1,513 12.61x 2026-11-04 15:27 UTC

[AUG | Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-minimal-wear) Hidden $120 $1,509 12.58x 2026-11-06 20:35 UTC

[AUG | Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-minimal-wear) [GaLaS Kincstár](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/GaLaS%20Kincst%C3%A1r) $120 $1,508 12.56x 2026-11-06 10:50 UTC

[AUG | Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-minimal-wear) [ᴋᴀᴍɪʟᴇᴋ SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%E1%B4%8B%E1%B4%80%E1%B4%8D%C9%AA%CA%9F%E1%B4%87%E1%B4%8B%20SKINS) $120 $1,508 12.56x 2026-11-05 18:38 UTC

[AUG | Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-minimal-wear) Hidden $120 $1,500 12.50x 2026-11-08 18:30 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [vyseer](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/vyseer) $120 $1,493 12.44x 2026-11-07 04:24 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=frozen-soul)

[★ Survival Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $120 $134 1.11x 2026-11-10 11:33 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $120 $134 1.11x 2026-11-10 11:33 UTC

[M4A1-S | Vaporwave weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave) [HyeXX](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/HyeXX) $120 $55.89 0.47x 2026-11-10 11:33 UTC

[USP-S | Serum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-minimal-wear) Hidden $120 $59.91 0.50x 2026-11-10 11:25 UTC

[USP-S | Serum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-minimal-wear) Hidden $120 $59.91 0.50x 2026-11-10 11:25 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Angry Mob weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob) [GUSTLIK](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/GUSTLIK) $120 $69.16 0.58x 2026-11-10 11:25 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hyper Beast weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast) Hidden $120 $153 1.28x 2026-11-10 11:25 UTC

[Galil AR | Shattered (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-shattered-factory-new) Hidden $120 $65.88 0.55x 2026-11-10 11:25 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Angry Mob weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob) [GUSTLIK](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/GUSTLIK) $120 $69.16 0.58x 2026-11-10 11:25 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Angry Mob weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob) [mejdejxd 20:30](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/mejdejxd%2020%3A30) $120 $69.16 0.58x 2026-11-10 11:05 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $120 | 87.51% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $120 | 87.77% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $120 | 87.73% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $120 | 87.90% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $120 | 87.61% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $120 | 87.81% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $120 | 87.52% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $120 | 87.91% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $120 | 87.21% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $120 | 88.18% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $120 | 87.87% | 30 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $120 | 88.18% | 30 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $120 | 87.82% | 30 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $120 | 87.60% | 30 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 40.8% legendary 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% rare 4.4% red 14.0% sunny 15.5% blue 16.8% classified 8.4% best hit $3,641 (30.34x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.51 on average: an expected loss of $12.49 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt