---
title: "FULL MOON JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "FULL MOON JOKER ($821.38) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 46 items with odds, observed 91.00% over 3,265 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/full-moon-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:55Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [FULL MOON JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/full-moon-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · FULL MOON JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/full-moon-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/full-moon-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/full-moon-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/full-moon-joker?window=all)

Price · $821.38

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $718.71 from 46 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.00% · 3,265 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 90.69% ±8.42 2,084 openings

30 days · 91.00% ±6.71 3,265 openings

since tracking started · 91.00% ±6.71 3,265 openings

81.5% 90.8% 100.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/full-moon-joker?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/full-moon-joker?window=7d) | 2,084 | 90.69% ±8.42 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/full-moon-joker) | 3,265 | 91.00% ±6.71 | +1.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/full-moon-joker?window=all) | 3,265 | 91.00% ±6.71 | +1.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 46 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,531 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 81 | $9,103 | 15.6% | 0 | 43.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 81 | $8,193 | 14.1% | 0 | 43.6 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 81 | $6,424 | 11.0% | 0 | 43.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 27 | $3,712 | 19.1% | 132 | 130.8 | 1.01× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 27 | $1,681 | 8.7% | 141 | 130.8 | 1.08× |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 108 | $1,340 | 1.7% | 0 | 32.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 27 | $1,094 | 5.6% | 140 | 130.8 | 1.07× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 27 | $965 | 5.0% | 137 | 130.8 | 1.05× |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) | 1 in 108 | $764 | 1.0% | 0 | 32.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 27 | $760 | 3.9% | 122 | 130.8 | 0.93× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 27 | $587 | 3.0% | 117 | 130.8 | 0.89× |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-well-worn) | 1 in 108 | $558 | 0.7% | 0 | 32.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-battle-scarred) | 1 in 108 | $469 | 0.6% | 0 | 32.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · gold · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 27 | $404 | 2.1% | 147 | 130.8 | 1.12× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) weapon · red · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 54 | $306 | 0.8% | 0 | 65.4 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Emerald) weapon · red · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested-emerald) | 1 in 54 | $240 | 0.6% | 0 | 65.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $201 | 1.0% | 145 | 130.8 | 1.11× |
| [P90 \| Run and Hide (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-run-and-hide-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $158 | 0.8% | 132 | 130.8 | 1.01× |
| [MAC-10 \| Copper Borre (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-copper-borre-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $136 | 0.7% | 130 | 130.8 | 0.99× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 81 | $134 | 0.2% | 0 | 43.6 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Modern Hunter (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-modern-hunter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $101 | 0.5% | 128 | 130.8 | 0.98× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 81 | $93.73 | 0.2% | 0 | 43.6 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Sundown (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sundown-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $86.97 | 0.4% | 122 | 130.8 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Stalker (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-stalker-well-worn) | 1 in 27 | $77.74 | 0.4% | 128 | 130.8 | 0.98× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 81 | $74.90 | 0.1% | 0 | 43.6 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 81 | $68.41 | 0.1% | 0 | 43.6 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Bone Pile (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-bone-pile-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $64.75 | 0.3% | 116 | 130.8 | 0.89× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch-minimal-wear) | 1 in 108 | $56.55 | 0.1% | 0 | 32.7 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 81 | $54.99 | 0.1% | 0 | 43.6 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Black Limba (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-black-limba-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $54.54 | 0.3% | 130 | 130.8 | 0.99× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 81 | $52.97 | 0.1% | 0 | 43.6 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Contractor (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-contractor-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $46.56 | 0.2% | 113 | 130.8 | 0.86× |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 108 | $44.85 | 0.1% | 0 | 32.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-minimal-wear) | 1 in 108 | $35.04 | 0.0% | 0 | 32.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-well-worn) | 1 in 108 | $34.90 | 0.0% | 0 | 32.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch-field-tested) | 1 in 108 | $31.55 | 0.0% | 0 | 32.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-battle-scarred) | 1 in 108 | $31.04 | 0.0% | 0 | 32.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 108 | $29.91 | 0.0% | 0 | 32.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-field-tested) | 1 in 108 | $29.61 | 0.0% | 0 | 32.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-well-worn) | 1 in 108 | $28.86 | 0.0% | 0 | 32.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-field-tested) | 1 in 108 | $28.79 | 0.0% | 0 | 32.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch-well-worn) | 1 in 108 | $23.91 | 0.0% | 0 | 32.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch-battle-scarred) | 1 in 108 | $23.15 | 0.0% | 0 | 32.7 | 0.00× |
| [Souvenir XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-elegant-vines-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $22.90 | 0.1% | 118 | 130.8 | 0.90× |
| [P90 \| Death Grip (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-grip-well-worn) | 1 in 27 | $19.51 | 0.1% | 156 | 130.8 | 1.19× |
| [M249 \| Contrast Spray (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-contrast-spray-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $14.80 | 0.1% | 117 | 130.8 | 0.89× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/full-moon-joker`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Dragon Lore weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore) [MÓJKODWACKIJA](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/M%C3%93JKODWACKIJA) $823 $7,909 9.61x 2026-11-07 21:46 UTC

[AWP | Dragon Lore weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore) Hidden $823 $7,909 9.61x 2026-11-07 19:20 UTC

[AWP | Dragon Lore weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore) [XAK1](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/XAK1) $825 $7,909 9.59x 2026-11-07 12:45 UTC

[AWP | Dragon Lore weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore) Hidden $825 $7,909 9.59x 2026-11-07 07:10 UTC

[AWP | Dragon Lore weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore) Hidden $825 $7,909 9.59x 2026-11-06 22:19 UTC

[AWP | Dragon Lore weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore) Hidden $825 $7,909 9.59x 2026-11-06 20:35 UTC

[AWP | Dragon Lore weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore) [Lukan](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Lukan) $825 $7,909 9.59x 2026-11-06 20:35 UTC

[AWP | Dragon Lore weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore) Hidden $825 $7,909 9.59x 2026-11-06 19:01 UTC

[AWP | Dragon Lore weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore) [0](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/0) $825 $7,909 9.59x 2026-11-06 19:01 UTC

[AWP | Dragon Lore weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore) Hidden $825 $7,909 9.59x 2026-11-06 19:01 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=full-moon-joker)

[AWP | Dragon Lore weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore) Hidden $821 $7,907 9.63x 2026-11-09 21:02 UTC

[P90 | Death Grip (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-grip-well-worn) Hidden $821 $19.51 0.02x 2026-11-09 21:02 UTC

[AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01) Hidden $821 $32.44 0.04x 2026-11-09 21:02 UTC

[P90 | Run and Hide (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-run-and-hide-field-tested) [LiN \_lt;3](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/LiN%20_lt%3B3) $821 $158 0.19x 2026-11-09 21:02 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Contractor (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-contractor-factory-new) Hidden $821 $46.56 0.06x 2026-11-09 21:02 UTC

[AWP | Dragon Lore weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore) Hidden $821 $7,907 9.63x 2026-11-09 21:02 UTC

[P90 | Death Grip (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-grip-well-worn) Hidden $821 $19.51 0.02x 2026-11-09 21:02 UTC

[P90 | Run and Hide (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-run-and-hide-field-tested) [LiN \_lt;3](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/LiN%20_lt%3B3) $821 $158 0.19x 2026-11-09 21:02 UTC

[StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Stalker (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-stalker-well-worn) Hidden $821 $77.74 0.09x 2026-11-09 21:02 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $821 $3,712 4.52x 2026-11-09 21:02 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $821 | 87.50% | 46 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $814 | 87.50% | 46 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $821 | 87.50% | 46 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $819 | 87.50% | 46 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $823 | 87.50% | 46 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $823 | 87.50% | 46 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $825 | 87.50% | 46 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $823 | 87.50% | 46 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $825 | 87.50% | 46 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $825 | 87.50% | 46 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $826 | 87.50% | 46 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $826 | 87.50% | 46 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $825 | 87.50% | 46 |
| 4 Nov, 04:46 UTC | $824 | 87.50% | 46 |
| 3 Nov, 02:07 UTC | $825 | 87.50% | 46 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 33.3% gold 7.4% red 7.4% pink 6.5% blue 14.8% classified 8.3% mil spec 3.7% consumer 3.7% restricted 2.8% violet 8.3% gray 3.7% best hit $7,909 (9.61x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt