---
title: "FULL MOON case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "FULL MOON ($50.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.44% from 46 items with odds, observed 86.76% over 40.6K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/full-moon
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:11Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [FULL MOON](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/full-moon)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · FULL MOON

A case on Casehug (Event), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/full-moon?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/full-moon?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/full-moon) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/full-moon?window=all)

Price · $50.00

Advertised RTP · 87.44% · EV $43.72 from 46 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.76% · 40.6K openings, odds method

Variance · 2.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 25.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 69.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 86.78% ±1.60 30K openings

30 days · 86.76% ±1.38 40.6K openings

since tracking started · 86.76% ±1.38 40.6K openings

84.5% 86.8% 89.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/full-moon?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/full-moon?window=7d) | 30K | 86.78% ±1.60 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/full-moon) | 40.6K | 86.76% ±1.38 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/full-moon?window=all) | 40.6K | 86.76% ±1.38 | −1.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 46 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 40.9K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $8,950 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 100,000 | $8,055 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100,000 | $6,395 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 14,286 | $3,641 | 0.6% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,703 | 0.4% | 2 | 4.1 | 0.49× |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,347 | 0.2% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,114 | 0.5% | 10 | 8.2 | 1.22× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 5,000 | $947 | 0.4% | 11 | 8.2 | 1.34× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 3,333 | $762 | 0.5% | 13 | 12.3 | 1.06× |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) | 1 in 6,667 | $750 | 0.3% | 0 | 6.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 2,000 | $578 | 0.7% | 20 | 20.5 | 0.98× |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $558 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $480 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · gold · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 2,500 | $403 | 0.4% | 22 | 16.4 | 1.34× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) weapon · red · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 10,000 | $304 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.1 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Emerald) weapon · red · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested-emerald) | 1 in 5,000 | $242 | 0.1% | 0 | 8.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 196 | $201 | 2.3% | 185 | 208.7 | 0.89× |
| [P90 \| Run and Hide (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-run-and-hide-field-tested) | 1 in 85 | $158 | 4.2% | 428 | 478.7 | 0.89× |
| [MAC-10 \| Copper Borre (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-copper-borre-minimal-wear) | 1 in 74 | $136 | 4.2% | 590 | 556.4 | 1.06× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 370 | $133 | 0.8% | 0 | 110.5 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 139 | $91.48 | 1.5% | 0 | 294.6 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Modern Hunter (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-modern-hunter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $88.57 | 6.0% | 1,027 | 1202.9 | 0.85× |
| [FAMAS \| Sundown (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sundown-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $84.07 | 6.0% | 1,214 | 1268.3 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Stalker (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-stalker-well-worn) | 1 in 30 | $77.74 | 5.9% | 1,340 | 1366.5 | 0.98× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 76 | $71.94 | 2.2% | 0 | 536.0 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 75 | $68.51 | 2.1% | 0 | 544.2 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Bone Pile (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-bone-pile-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $64.75 | 6.2% | 1,730 | 1706.1 | 1.01× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch-minimal-wear) | 1 in 172 | $57.24 | 0.8% | 0 | 237.3 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $55.63 | 2.6% | 0 | 822.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 44 | $54.96 | 2.8% | 0 | 924.7 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Black Limba (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-black-limba-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $54.54 | 6.2% | 1,948 | 2025.2 | 0.96× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Contractor (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-contractor-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $46.56 | 8.4% | 3,232 | 3224.0 | 1.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 68 | $44.53 | 1.5% | 0 | 597.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-minimal-wear) | 1 in 48 | $34.75 | 1.7% | 0 | 855.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-well-worn) | 1 in 45 | $33.46 | 1.7% | 0 | 912.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-battle-scarred) | 1 in 43 | $32.22 | 1.7% | 0 | 941.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $30.23 | 1.7% | 0 | 1026.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-well-worn) | 1 in 39 | $29.18 | 1.7% | 0 | 1055.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $29.04 | 1.8% | 0 | 1084.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 38 | $28.92 | 1.8% | 0 | 1084.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $28.03 | 1.6% | 0 | 998.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch-battle-scarred) | 1 in 32 | $23.59 | 1.7% | 0 | 1284.7 | 0.00× |
| [Souvenir XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-elegant-vines-minimal-wear) | 10.5% | $22.92 | 5.5% | 4,425 | 4279.6 | 1.03× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $22.32 | 1.7% | 0 | 1399.3 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Death Grip (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-grip-well-worn) | 11.4% | $18.38 | 4.8% | 4,629 | 4680.6 | 0.99× |
| [M249 \| Contrast Spray (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-contrast-spray-factory-new) | 12.5% | $14.78 | 4.2% | 5,070 | 5106.1 | 0.99× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/full-moon`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $50.00 $1,681 33.62x 2026-11-08 20:07 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [Ding Dong \_lt;3](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Ding%20Dong%20_lt%3B3) $50.00 $1,668 33.35x 2026-11-09 19:09 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [discoStar](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/discoStar) $50.00 $1,117 22.34x 2026-11-04 16:10 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $50.00 $1,114 22.28x 2026-11-05 16:22 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $50.00 $1,114 22.28x 2026-11-05 14:36 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $50.00 $1,114 22.28x 2026-11-05 14:19 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [Szoke97](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Szoke97) $50.00 $1,114 22.28x 2026-11-05 01:01 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [DeadGamer](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/DeadGamer) $50.00 $1,111 22.22x 2026-11-03 01:08 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $50.00 $1,109 22.18x 2026-11-06 20:05 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $50.00 $1,100 22.00x 2026-11-08 14:15 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=full-moon)

[FAMAS | Sundown (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sundown-field-tested) Hidden $50.00 $84.07 1.68x 2026-11-09 21:01 UTC

[AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01) Hidden $50.00 $32.55 0.65x 2026-11-09 21:01 UTC

[Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-elegant-vines-minimal-wear) [bom](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/bom) $50.00 $22.92 0.46x 2026-11-09 21:01 UTC

[M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch) Hidden $50.00 $26.30 0.53x 2026-11-09 21:01 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Black Limba (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-black-limba-factory-new) Hidden $50.00 $54.54 1.09x 2026-11-09 21:01 UTC

[M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch) Hidden $50.00 $26.30 0.53x 2026-11-09 21:01 UTC

[Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-elegant-vines-minimal-wear) [Why Always ME!](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Why%20Always%20ME!) $50.00 $22.92 0.46x 2026-11-09 21:01 UTC

[Nova | Modern Hunter (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-modern-hunter-minimal-wear) Hidden $50.00 $88.57 1.77x 2026-11-09 21:00 UTC

[M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy) Hidden $50.00 $31.47 0.63x 2026-11-09 21:00 UTC

[P90 | Death Grip (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-grip-well-worn) Hidden $50.00 $18.38 0.37x 2026-11-09 21:00 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $50.00 | 87.44% | 46 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $50.00 | 87.60% | 46 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $50.00 | 87.74% | 46 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $50.00 | 87.64% | 46 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $50.00 | 87.72% | 46 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $50.00 | 87.50% | 46 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $50.00 | 87.77% | 46 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $50.00 | 87.75% | 46 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $50.00 | 87.78% | 46 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $50.00 | 87.47% | 46 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $50.00 | 87.90% | 46 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $50.00 | 87.98% | 46 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $50.00 | 87.72% | 46 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $50.00 | 87.66% | 46 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 4.5% gold 0.1% red 3.4% pink 7.3% blue 12.3% classified 16.8% mil spec 4.2% consumer 7.9% restricted 6.6% violet 24.4% gray 12.5% best hit $1,681 (33.62x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.44 on average: an expected loss of $12.56 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt