--- title: "GALAXY JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops" description: "GALAXY JOKER ($796.14) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.50% from 30 items with odds, observed 94.25% over 251 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/galaxy-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T19:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [GALAXY JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/galaxy-joker) # [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · GALAXY JOKER A case on Casehug, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/galaxy-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/galaxy-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/galaxy-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/galaxy-joker?window=all) Price · $796.14 Advertised RTP · 90.50% · EV $720.51 from 30 items Observed RTP, 30d · 94.25% · 251 openings, odds method Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 18.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 15 openings · below min 7 days · 93.72% ±13.30 227 openings 30 days · 94.25% ±12.64 251 openings since tracking started · 94.25% ±12.64 251 openings 5.0% 57.5% 110.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/galaxy-joker?window=24h) | 15 | 57.42% ±51.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/galaxy-joker?window=7d) | 227 | 93.72% ±13.3 | +0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/galaxy-joker) | 251 | 94.25% ±12.6 | +0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/galaxy-joker?window=all) | 251 | 94.25% ±12.6 | +0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 278 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $2,804 | 14.4% | 11 | 10.3 | 1.07× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) | 1 in 27 | $2,565 | 13.2% | 10 | 10.3 | 0.97× | | [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $2,260 | 11.6% | 6 | 10.3 | 0.58× | | [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $1,705 | 8.8% | 14 | 10.3 | 1.36× | | [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $1,604 | 8.2% | 15 | 10.3 | 1.46× | | [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $1,437 | 7.4% | 14 | 10.3 | 1.36× | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $1,254 | 6.4% | 13 | 10.3 | 1.26× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $819 | 4.2% | 8 | 10.3 | 0.78× | | [★ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $753 | 3.9% | 5 | 10.3 | 0.49× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $706 | 3.6% | 14 | 10.3 | 1.36× | | [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $620 | 3.2% | 11 | 10.3 | 1.07× | | [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) | 1 in 54 | $611 | 1.6% | 0 | 5.1 | 0.00× | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $489 | 2.5% | 9 | 10.3 | 0.87× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 27 | $394 | 2.0% | 10 | 10.3 | 0.97× | | [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $331 | 1.7% | 10 | 10.3 | 0.97× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $318 | 1.6% | 7 | 10.3 | 0.68× | | [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-well-worn) | 1 in 54 | $318 | 0.8% | 0 | 5.1 | 0.00× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $222 | 1.1% | 11 | 10.3 | 1.07× | | [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 27 | $163 | 0.8% | 11 | 10.3 | 1.07× | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 54 | $111 | 0.3% | 0 | 5.1 | 0.00× | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 54 | $89.43 | 0.2% | 0 | 5.1 | 0.00× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $84.84 | 0.4% | 15 | 10.3 | 1.46× | | [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $76.15 | 0.4% | 8 | 10.3 | 0.78× | | [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $57.35 | 0.3% | 6 | 10.3 | 0.58× | | [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-well-worn) | 1 in 54 | $55.55 | 0.1% | 0 | 5.1 | 0.00× | | [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-battle-scarred) | 1 in 54 | $54.99 | 0.1% | 0 | 5.1 | 0.00× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-forest-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 27 | $49.73 | 0.3% | 7 | 10.3 | 0.68× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-safari-mesh-well-worn) | 1 in 27 | $49.63 | 0.3% | 9 | 10.3 | 0.87× | | [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $37.42 | 0.2% | 2 | 10.3 | 0.19× | | [USP-S \| Road Rash (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-battle-scarred) | 1 in 27 | $35.22 | 0.2% | 21 | 10.3 | 2.04× | Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/galaxy-joker`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) Hidden $817 $2,880 3.53x 2026-11-03 13:56 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) [Naturalson](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Naturalson) $817 $2,880 3.53x 2026-11-03 12:59 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) [Naturalson](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Naturalson) $817 $2,880 3.53x 2026-11-03 12:59 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) [Naturalson](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Naturalson) $811 $2,875 3.55x 2026-11-04 11:57 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) [CRISTIANO RONALDO](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/CRISTIANO%20RONALDO) $807 $2,844 3.53x 2026-11-08 22:44 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) Hidden $807 $2,844 3.53x 2026-11-08 22:44 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) Hidden $810 $2,844 3.51x 2026-11-08 11:10 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) [XAK1](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/XAK1) $810 $2,844 3.51x 2026-11-07 13:29 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) Hidden $806 $2,828 3.51x 2026-11-09 16:46 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) Hidden $803 $2,773 3.45x 2026-11-08 17:15 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=galaxy-joker) [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $796 $1,604 2.01x 2026-11-11 19:35 UTC [FAMAS | Bad Trip weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip) [Malutki Kamilek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Malutki%20Kamilek) $796 $55.27 0.07x 2026-11-11 19:35 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [Naturalson](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Naturalson) $796 $84.84 0.11x 2026-11-11 11:59 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) [Naturalson](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Naturalson) $796 $753 0.95x 2026-11-11 11:55 UTC [FAMAS | Bad Trip weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip) [Rysiu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Rysiu) $796 $55.27 0.07x 2026-11-11 11:55 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [Naturalson](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Naturalson) $796 $84.84 0.11x 2026-11-11 11:55 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [Rysiu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Rysiu) $796 $84.84 0.11x 2026-11-11 11:55 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [Naturalson](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Naturalson) $796 $84.84 0.11x 2026-11-11 11:54 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [Rysiu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Rysiu) $796 $706 0.89x 2026-11-11 11:54 UTC [AWP | Asiimov weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov) [Naturalson](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Naturalson) $798 $103 0.13x 2026-11-11 11:54 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $796 | 90.50% | 30 | | 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $798 | 90.50% | 30 | | 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $803 | 90.50% | 30 | | 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $806 | 90.50% | 30 | | 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $806 | 90.50% | 30 | | 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $807 | 90.50% | 30 | | 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $803 | 90.50% | 30 | | 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $810 | 90.50% | 30 | | 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $803 | 90.50% | 30 | | 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $807 | 90.50% | 30 | | 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $812 | 90.50% | 30 | | 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $814 | 90.50% | 30 | | 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $810 | 90.50% | 30 | | 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $814 | 90.50% | 30 | | 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $811 | 90.50% | 30 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 55.6% extraordinary 3.7% restricted 7.4% classified 7.4% gold 7.4% epic 3.7% sunny 3.7% red 7.4% Ancient 3.7% best hit $2,880 (3.53x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.50 on average: an expected loss of $9.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt