---
title: "GALAXY case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "GALAXY ($165.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 30 items with odds, observed 89.34% over 2,204 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/galaxy
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [GALAXY](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/galaxy)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · GALAXY

A case on Casehug (PREMIUM), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/galaxy?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/galaxy?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/galaxy) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/galaxy?window=all)

Price · $165.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $144.38 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.34% · 2,204 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 16.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 67.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 93.61% ±11.63 305 openings

7 days · 90.10% ±4.58 1,843 openings

30 days · 89.34% ±4.19 2,204 openings

since tracking started · 89.34% ±4.19 2,204 openings

81.5% 93.8% 106.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/galaxy?window=24h) | 305 | 93.61% ±11.6 | +1.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/galaxy?window=7d) | 1,843 | 90.10% ±4.58 | +1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/galaxy) | 2,204 | 89.34% ±4.19 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/galaxy?window=all) | 2,204 | 89.34% ±4.19 | +0.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,204 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $2,804 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,333 | $2,592 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $2,262 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,707 | 0.6% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.81× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,592 | 0.6% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,667 | $1,435 | 0.6% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,429 | $1,254 | 0.6% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $816 | 0.6% | 5 | 2.2 | 2.27× |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 909 | $759 | 0.6% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.82× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 833 | $697 | 0.6% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.76× |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 51 | $616 | 8.5% | 11 | 43.6 | 0.25× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) | 1 in 145 | $610 | 2.9% | 0 | 15.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $492 | 8.5% | 114 | 54.7 | 2.09× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 39 | $398 | 7.1% | 53 | 56.6 | 0.94× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $340 | 7.1% | 84 | 66.3 | 1.27× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-well-worn) | 1 in 48 | $320 | 4.7% | 0 | 46.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $318 | 7.1% | 71 | 70.7 | 1.00× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $222 | 10.7% | 195 | 153.0 | 1.27× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $175 | 10.7% | 189 | 194.6 | 0.97× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 36 | $111 | 2.1% | 0 | 60.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 31 | $95.90 | 2.2% | 0 | 71.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $91.08 | 3.9% | 121 | 135.8 | 0.89× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $75.96 | 3.5% | 146 | 146.1 | 1.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $54.89 | 2.9% | 146 | 166.2 | 0.88× |
| [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-well-worn) | 1 in 26 | $49.95 | 1.4% | 0 | 86.4 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-battle-scarred) | 1 in 26 | $49.95 | 1.4% | 0 | 86.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-safari-mesh-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $49.95 | 2.7% | 184 | 172.6 | 1.07× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-forest-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $49.62 | 2.7% | 148 | 173.2 | 0.85× |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $37.36 | 2.3% | 191 | 194.0 | 0.98× |
| [USP-S \| Road Rash (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $35.40 | 2.2% | 196 | 195.5 | 1.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/galaxy`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) [Auguś](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Augu%C5%9B) $165 $2,237 13.56x 2026-11-03 23:04 UTC

[Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) [CyberRulz](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/CyberRulz) $165 $1,726 10.46x 2026-11-04 20:44 UTC

[Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $165 $1,710 10.36x 2026-11-10 10:43 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $165 $842 5.10x 2026-11-04 14:45 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [die.](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/die.) $165 $825 5.00x 2026-11-06 06:38 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $165 $824 5.00x 2026-11-07 11:10 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $165 $824 5.00x 2026-11-07 02:35 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Brugalini14](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Brugalini14) $165 $824 4.99x 2026-11-08 19:05 UTC

[★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) [oliwiasuhtorii](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/oliwiasuhtorii) $165 $760 4.61x 2026-11-09 16:51 UTC

[★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) [???? ŻBIKU ????](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%3F%3F%3F%3F%20%C5%BBBIKU%20%3F%3F%3F%3F) $165 $760 4.60x 2026-11-08 11:07 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=galaxy)

[USP-S | Road Rash (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-battle-scarred) Hidden $165 $35.40 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $165 $222 1.35x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC

[AWP | Asiimov weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov) Hidden $165 $103 0.62x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC

[FAMAS | Bad Trip weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip) [Wuj WodzU](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Wuj%20WodzU) $165 $49.95 0.30x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [WeeFX](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/WeeFX) $165 $398 2.41x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[AWP | Asiimov weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov) [WeeFX](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/WeeFX) $165 $103 0.62x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[AK-47 | Head Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-field-tested) [WeeFX](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/WeeFX) $165 $37.36 0.23x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [WeeFX](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/WeeFX) $165 $222 1.35x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[AWP | Asiimov weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov) [WeeFX](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/WeeFX) $165 $103 0.62x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[M4A1-S | Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) [Naturalson](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Naturalson) $165 $75.96 0.46x 2026-11-11 11:59 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $165 | 87.50% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $165 | 87.59% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $165 | 87.61% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $165 | 87.40% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $165 | 87.75% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $165 | 87.45% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $165 | 87.50% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $165 | 87.65% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $165 | 87.55% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $165 | 87.77% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $165 | 87.29% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $165 | 87.50% | 30 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $165 | 87.78% | 30 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $165 | 87.50% | 30 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $165 | 87.64% | 30 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 54.9% extraordinary 0.0% restricted 8.9% classified 0.1% gold 8.0% epic 0.1% sunny 2.5% red 16.7% Ancient 8.8% best hit $2,237 (13.56x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt