---
title: "GAME ON JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "GAME ON JOKER ($47.67) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.51% from 26 items with odds, observed 86.87% over 918 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/game-on-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T22:19Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [GAME ON JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/game-on-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · GAME ON JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/game-on-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/game-on-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/game-on-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/game-on-joker?window=all)

Price · $47.67

Advertised RTP · 87.51% · EV $41.71 from 26 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.87% · 918 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 96.90% ±20.01 201 openings

7 days · 85.64% ±9.70 839 openings

30 days · 86.87% ±9.27 918 openings

since tracking started · 86.87% ±9.27 918 openings

75.5% 96.5% 117.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/game-on-joker?window=24h) | 201 | 96.90% ±20.0 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/game-on-joker?window=7d) | 839 | 85.64% ±9.70 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/game-on-joker) | 918 | 86.87% ±9.27 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/game-on-joker?window=all) | 918 | 86.87% ±9.27 | −0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 996 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) weapon · red · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 21 | $306 | 34.9% | 50 | 47.4 | 1.05× |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $145 | 16.6% | 57 | 47.4 | 1.20× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $76.15 | 8.7% | 26 | 47.4 | 0.55× |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $65.01 | 7.4% | 43 | 47.4 | 0.91× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $56.50 | 6.4% | 40 | 47.4 | 0.84× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $53.66 | 6.1% | 49 | 47.4 | 1.03× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $43.63 | 5.0% | 53 | 47.4 | 1.12× |
| [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $43.61 | 5.0% | 47 | 47.4 | 0.99× |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $26.74 | 1.5% | 0 | 23.7 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-well-worn) | 1 in 42 | $22.60 | 1.3% | 0 | 23.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $13.35 | 1.5% | 46 | 47.4 | 0.97× |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $9.38 | 1.1% | 49 | 47.4 | 1.03× |
| [SSG 08 \| Rapid Transit (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-rapid-transit-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $7.07 | 0.8% | 56 | 47.4 | 1.18× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Charged Up (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-charged-up-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $6.90 | 0.8% | 43 | 47.4 | 0.91× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $5.39 | 0.6% | 43 | 47.4 | 0.91× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 21 | $4.76 | 0.5% | 62 | 47.4 | 1.31× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $4.60 | 0.5% | 52 | 47.4 | 1.10× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Well-Worn) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $3.90 | 0.4% | 51 | 47.4 | 1.08× |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $3.70 | 0.4% | 37 | 47.4 | 0.78× |
| [P250 \| Inferno (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $1.06 | 0.1% | 48 | 47.4 | 1.01× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.90 | 0.1% | 56 | 47.4 | 1.18× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan-factory-new) | 1 in 105 | $0.71 | 0.0% | 0 | 9.5 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 105 | $0.52 | 0.0% | 0 | 9.5 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan-well-worn) | 1 in 105 | $0.21 | 0.0% | 0 | 9.5 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan-field-tested) | 1 in 105 | $0.20 | 0.0% | 0 | 9.5 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan-battle-scarred) | 1 in 105 | $0.18 | 0.0% | 0 | 9.5 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/game-on-joker`, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=game-on-joker)

[AWP | Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) [kaCzoR\_kill4Fun](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/kaCzoR_kill4Fun) $47.67 $43.61 0.91x 2026-11-11 21:40 UTC

[AK-47 | Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-well-worn) [Nissan Laurel C35cstorm.pl](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Nissan%20Laurel%20C35cstorm.pl) $47.67 $53.66 1.13x 2026-11-11 21:40 UTC

[AK-47 | Safety Net (Well-Worn) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-well-worn) Hidden $47.67 $3.90 0.08x 2026-11-11 20:14 UTC

[AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) Hidden $47.67 $56.50 1.19x 2026-11-11 20:14 UTC

[AK-47 | Safety Net (Well-Worn) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-well-worn) Hidden $47.67 $3.90 0.08x 2026-11-11 20:14 UTC

[AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) [ziomek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/ziomek) $47.67 $5.39 0.11x 2026-11-11 20:14 UTC

[SSG 08 | Rapid Transit (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-rapid-transit-factory-new) Hidden $47.67 $7.07 0.15x 2026-11-11 20:14 UTC

[M4A1-S | Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) Hidden $47.67 $76.15 1.60x 2026-11-11 20:14 UTC

[M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-battle-scarred) Hidden $47.67 $4.76 0.10x 2026-11-11 20:14 UTC

[M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-battle-scarred) [ziomek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/ziomek) $47.67 $4.76 0.10x 2026-11-11 20:14 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $47.67 | 87.51% | 26 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $48.14 | 87.50% | 26 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $48.12 | 87.51% | 26 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $48.00 | 87.50% | 26 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $47.74 | 87.50% | 26 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $48.00 | 87.50% | 26 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $48.90 | 87.51% | 26 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $48.27 | 87.50% | 26 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $48.09 | 87.51% | 26 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $48.56 | 87.50% | 26 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $48.36 | 87.51% | 26 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $47.99 | 87.51% | 26 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $47.97 | 87.50% | 26 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $48.56 | 87.50% | 26 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $48.54 | 87.49% | 26 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $47.42 | 87.50% | 26 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $48.83 | 87.51% | 26 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $47.52 | 87.50% | 26 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $48.83 | 87.51% | 26 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed red 4.8% Legendary 9.5% covert 19.0% Ancient 4.8% classified 4.8% pink 11.9% rare 2.4% uncommon 4.8% violet 4.8% #8847ff 9.5% Mythical 14.3% restricted 4.8% blue 3.8% Rare 1.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.51 on average: an expected loss of $12.49 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt