---
title: "GAME ON case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "GAME ON ($4.50) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 26 items with odds, observed 84.95% over 9,422 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/game-on
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:28Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [GAME ON](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/game-on)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · GAME ON

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/game-on?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/game-on?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/game-on) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/game-on?window=all)

Price · $4.50

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $3.94 from 26 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.95% · 9,422 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 65.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 86.87% ±9.51 1,361 openings

7 days · 86.02% ±3.70 8,143 openings

30 days · 84.95% ±3.42 9,422 openings

since tracking started · 84.95% ±3.42 9,422 openings

76.5% 86.8% 97.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/game-on?window=24h) | 1,361 | 86.87% ±9.51 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/game-on?window=7d) | 8,143 | 86.02% ±3.70 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/game-on) | 9,422 | 84.95% ±3.42 | −1.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/game-on?window=all) | 9,422 | 84.95% ±3.42 | −1.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,445 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) weapon · red · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 4,348 | $306 | 1.8% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.46× |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-factory-new) | 1 in 2,273 | $153 | 1.7% | 4 | 4.2 | 0.96× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,136 | $75.96 | 1.7% | 4 | 8.3 | 0.48× |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 962 | $64.37 | 1.7% | 8 | 9.8 | 0.81× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 826 | $54.85 | 1.7% | 13 | 11.4 | 1.14× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 820 | $54.68 | 1.7% | 7 | 11.5 | 0.61× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 680 | $45.37 | 1.7% | 8 | 13.9 | 0.58× |
| [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 667 | $44.35 | 1.7% | 13 | 14.2 | 0.92× |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-field-tested) | 1 in 917 | $27.19 | 0.8% | 0 | 10.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-well-worn) | 1 in 595 | $21.89 | 0.9% | 0 | 15.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-well-worn) | 1 in 18 | $12.81 | 18.4% | 484 | 535.5 | 0.90× |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $9.38 | 7.7% | 289 | 306.9 | 0.94× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Charged Up (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-charged-up-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $7.36 | 7.7% | 364 | 391.0 | 0.93× |
| [SSG 08 \| Rapid Transit (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-rapid-transit-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $7.24 | 7.7% | 362 | 397.4 | 0.91× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $5.56 | 6.8% | 551 | 453.8 | 1.21× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $4.59 | 6.8% | 675 | 549.8 | 1.23× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $4.57 | 6.8% | 574 | 552.2 | 1.04× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Well-Worn) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $3.92 | 7.5% | 661 | 709.7 | 0.93× |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $3.66 | 7.2% | 703 | 731.3 | 0.96× |
| [P250 \| Inferno (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-minimal-wear) | 12.7% | $1.06 | 3.4% | 1,186 | 1200.6 | 0.99× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-field-tested) | 13.6% | $0.90 | 3.1% | 1,293 | 1281.8 | 1.01× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan-factory-new) | 1 in 84 | $0.67 | 0.2% | 0 | 112.5 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 56 | $0.50 | 0.2% | 0 | 169.5 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $0.21 | 0.3% | 0 | 570.9 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.20 | 0.3% | 0 | 611.2 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $0.17 | 0.4% | 0 | 769.3 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/game-on`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) weapon · red · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) Hidden $4.50 $306 67.93x 2026-11-10 16:22 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=game-on)

[Desert Eagle | Mint Fan weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan) Hidden $4.50 $0.24 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Mint Fan weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan) Hidden $4.50 $0.24 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) Hidden $4.50 $5.56 1.24x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Mint Fan weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan) [RuJiRu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/RuJiRu) $4.50 $0.24 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Mint Fan weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan) Hidden $4.50 $0.24 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) Hidden $4.50 $5.56 1.24x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[P250 | Inferno (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.50 $1.06 0.24x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[P250 | Inferno (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-minimal-wear) [RuJiRu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/RuJiRu) $4.50 $1.06 0.24x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Mint Fan weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan) Hidden $4.50 $0.24 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-field-tested) Hidden $4.50 $0.90 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $4.50 | 87.50% | 26 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $4.50 | 87.79% | 26 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $4.50 | 87.77% | 26 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $4.50 | 87.57% | 26 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $4.50 | 87.61% | 26 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $4.50 | 87.58% | 26 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $4.50 | 87.37% | 26 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $4.50 | 87.58% | 26 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $4.50 | 87.85% | 26 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $4.50 | 87.71% | 26 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $4.50 | 87.32% | 26 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $4.50 | 87.50% | 26 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $4.50 | 87.32% | 26 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $4.50 | 87.66% | 26 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $4.50 | 87.03% | 26 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $4.50 | 87.66% | 26 |
| 3 Nov, 15:55 UTC | $4.50 | 87.26% | 26 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $4.50 | 87.47% | 26 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed red 0.0% Legendary 4.8% covert 0.4% Ancient 0.1% classified 0.1% pink 9.2% rare 0.2% uncommon 5.7% #8847ff 10.0% violet 4.2% Mythical 33.8% restricted 7.7% blue 21.9% Rare 1.8% best hit $306 (67.93x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt