---
title: "GLOWING STONE JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "GLOWING STONE JOKER ($491.14) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 54 items with odds, observed 80.48% over 333 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/glowing-stone-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T22:21Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [GLOWING STONE JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/glowing-stone-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · GLOWING STONE JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/glowing-stone-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/glowing-stone-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/glowing-stone-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/glowing-stone-joker?window=all)

Price · $491.14

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $429.75 from 54 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 80.48% · 333 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 13.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 77.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 87 openings · below min

7 days · 79.57% ±17.00 304 openings

30 days · 80.48% ±16.25 333 openings

since tracking started · 80.48% ±16.25 333 openings

54.0% 86.5% 119.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/glowing-stone-joker?window=24h) | 87 | 86.51% ±31.6 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/glowing-stone-joker?window=7d) | 304 | 79.57% ±17.0 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/glowing-stone-joker) | 333 | 80.48% ±16.2 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/glowing-stone-joker?window=all) | 333 | 80.48% ±16.2 | −0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 54 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 397 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 23 | $2,292 | 23.2% | 9 | 17.3 | 0.52× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 23 | $2,069 | 20.9% | 12 | 17.3 | 0.70× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 23 | $2,038 | 20.6% | 22 | 17.3 | 1.27× |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 23 | $1,627 | 16.5% | 16 | 17.3 | 0.93× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 23 | $506 | 5.1% | 16 | 17.3 | 0.93× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Minimal Wear) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92 | $502 | 1.3% | 0 | 4.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 92 | $287 | 0.7% | 0 | 4.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-factory-new) | 1 in 115 | $241 | 0.5% | 0 | 3.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $196 | 0.5% | 0 | 4.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-well-worn) | 1 in 92 | $179 | 0.5% | 0 | 4.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92 | $164 | 0.4% | 0 | 4.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 23 | $159 | 1.6% | 19 | 17.3 | 1.10× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-battle-scarred) | 1 in 92 | $150 | 0.4% | 0 | 4.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 23 | $131 | 1.3% | 23 | 17.3 | 1.33× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $115 | 0.3% | 0 | 4.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92 | $112 | 0.3% | 0 | 4.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-well-worn) | 1 in 92 | $106 | 0.3% | 0 | 4.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92 | $99.54 | 0.3% | 0 | 4.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $87.89 | 0.2% | 0 | 4.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 92 | $81.37 | 0.2% | 0 | 4.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 115 | $80.23 | 0.2% | 0 | 3.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Giraffe (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-giraffe-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92 | $80.10 | 0.2% | 0 | 4.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 92 | $77.08 | 0.2% | 0 | 4.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Battle-Scarred) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-battle-scarred) | 1 in 92 | $76.88 | 0.2% | 0 | 4.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 1 in 115 | $76.03 | 0.2% | 0 | 3.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 115 | $74.94 | 0.2% | 0 | 3.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 92 | $74.72 | 0.2% | 0 | 4.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-well-worn) | 1 in 115 | $71.51 | 0.1% | 0 | 3.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $68.39 | 0.2% | 0 | 4.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 69 | $65.76 | 0.2% | 0 | 5.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 115 | $65.25 | 0.1% | 0 | 3.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 115 | $64.89 | 0.1% | 0 | 3.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-battle-scarred) | 1 in 115 | $63.54 | 0.1% | 0 | 3.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $60.68 | 0.2% | 0 | 5.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-well-worn) | 1 in 115 | $60.40 | 0.1% | 0 | 3.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-forest-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 69 | $57.65 | 0.2% | 0 | 5.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-battle-scarred) | 1 in 115 | $57.22 | 0.1% | 0 | 3.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 92 | $53.21 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Giraffe (Well-Worn) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-giraffe-well-worn) | 1 in 92 | $51.78 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Giraffe (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-giraffe-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $50.97 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-well-worn) | 1 in 92 | $50.93 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $48.59 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92 | $47.64 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Giraffe (Battle-Scarred) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-giraffe-battle-scarred) | 1 in 92 | $45.89 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 69 | $45.59 | 0.2% | 0 | 5.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-factory-new) | 1 in 46 | $34.29 | 0.2% | 0 | 8.6 | 0.00× |
| [Souvenir XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-elegant-vines-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $23.06 | 0.2% | 18 | 17.3 | 1.04× |
| [P90 \| Death Grip (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-grip-well-worn) | 1 in 23 | $18.47 | 0.2% | 16 | 17.3 | 0.93× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 46 | $15.94 | 0.1% | 0 | 8.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-well-worn) | 1 in 69 | $14.69 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.8 | 0.00× |
| [M249 \| Contrast Spray (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-contrast-spray-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $14.67 | 0.1% | 22 | 17.3 | 1.27× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 69 | $14.55 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.8 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Rising Skull (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-rising-skull-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $13.56 | 0.1% | 12 | 17.3 | 0.70× |
| [Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $10.50 | 0.1% | 19 | 17.3 | 1.10× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/glowing-stone-joker`, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $511 $2,426 4.75x 2026-11-04 19:40 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $511 $2,426 4.75x 2026-11-04 19:40 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $511 $2,426 4.75x 2026-11-03 22:34 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [mateous](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/mateous) $507 $2,411 4.75x 2026-11-05 21:47 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $501 $2,391 4.77x 2026-11-08 19:47 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [PinEight](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/PinEight) $499 $2,364 4.74x 2026-11-09 03:48 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $497 $2,363 4.75x 2026-11-10 15:33 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $491 $2,292 4.67x 2026-11-11 19:08 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $491 $2,285 4.66x 2026-11-11 01:42 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [MAJSZI](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/MAJSZI) $511 $2,173 4.25x 2026-11-04 16:05 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=glowing-stone-joker)

[★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $491 $131 0.27x 2026-11-11 19:36 UTC

[★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [Malutki Kamilek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Malutki%20Kamilek) $491 $1,627 3.31x 2026-11-11 19:36 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Forest DDPAT knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-forest-ddpat) Hidden $491 $61.36 0.12x 2026-11-11 19:09 UTC

[Tec-9 | Safety Net (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-factory-new) Hidden $491 $10.50 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:09 UTC

[Tec-9 | Safety Net (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-factory-new) Hidden $491 $10.50 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:09 UTC

[M4A1-S | Player Two weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two) [Radziu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Radziu) $491 $103 0.21x 2026-11-11 19:09 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $491 $2,038 4.15x 2026-11-11 19:09 UTC

[M4A1-S | Decimator weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator) Hidden $491 $24.94 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:09 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $491 $131 0.27x 2026-11-11 19:09 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Forest DDPAT knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-forest-ddpat) [Radziu](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Radziu) $491 $61.36 0.12x 2026-11-11 19:09 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $491 | 87.50% | 54 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $491 | 87.50% | 54 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $491 | 87.50% | 54 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $497 | 87.50% | 54 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $501 | 87.50% | 54 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $499 | 87.50% | 54 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $500 | 87.50% | 54 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $501 | 87.50% | 54 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $502 | 87.50% | 54 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $503 | 87.50% | 54 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $507 | 87.50% | 54 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $511 | 87.50% | 54 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 44.4% gold 6.5% legendary 1.1% sunny 6.9% epic 1.1% extraordinary 7.6% Covert 1.1% #ffd700 0.9% classified 2.9% rare 2.2% violet 13.0% #d32ce6 2.2% pink 1.4% gray 4.3% blue 4.3% best hit $2,426 (4.75x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt