---
title: "GLOWING STONE case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "GLOWING STONE ($70.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 54 items with odds, observed 83.21% over 4,672 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/glowing-stone
rendered: 2026-11-11T16:02Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [GLOWING STONE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/glowing-stone)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · GLOWING STONE

A case on Casehug (BATTLE), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/glowing-stone?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/glowing-stone?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/glowing-stone) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/glowing-stone?window=all)

Price · $70.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $61.25 from 54 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 83.21% · 4,672 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 16.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 69.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 78.82% ±12.87 637 openings

7 days · 82.62% ±5.20 3,811 openings

30 days · 83.21% ±4.70 4,672 openings

since tracking started · 83.21% ±4.70 4,672 openings

65.5% 79.0% 92.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/glowing-stone?window=24h) | 637 | 78.82% ±12.9 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/glowing-stone?window=7d) | 3,811 | 82.62% ±5.20 | −1.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/glowing-stone) | 4,672 | 83.21% ±4.70 | −1.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/glowing-stone?window=all) | 4,672 | 83.21% ±4.70 | −1.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 54 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,691 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 1,667 | $2,285 | 2.2% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.71× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,667 | $2,069 | 2.0% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.71× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 1,429 | $2,029 | 2.3% | 1 | 3.3 | 0.30× |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 1,250 | $1,627 | 2.1% | 2 | 3.8 | 0.53× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Minimal Wear) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $563 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 385 | $506 | 2.1% | 9 | 12.2 | 0.74× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $287 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $241 | 1.6% | 0 | 18.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $196 | 6.4% | 0 | 93.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-well-worn) | 1 in 44 | $184 | 6.8% | 0 | 105.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 33 | $159 | 7.8% | 101 | 141.7 | 0.71× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-battle-scarred) | 1 in 88 | $150 | 2.8% | 0 | 53.0 | 0.00× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 179 | $149 | 1.4% | 0 | 26.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 27 | $129 | 7.8% | 165 | 175.4 | 0.94× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-field-tested) | 1 in 105 | $114 | 1.8% | 0 | 44.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 119 | $112 | 1.5% | 0 | 39.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-well-worn) | 1 in 95 | $101 | 1.7% | 0 | 49.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $99.54 | 1.6% | 0 | 46.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 84 | $87.34 | 1.7% | 0 | 55.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 72 | $80.86 | 1.8% | 0 | 65.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 118 | $80.23 | 1.1% | 0 | 39.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Giraffe (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-giraffe-minimal-wear) | 1 in 103 | $77.91 | 1.2% | 0 | 45.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 65 | $76.61 | 1.9% | 0 | 72.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 1 in 85 | $75.96 | 1.5% | 0 | 54.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 102 | $75.01 | 1.2% | 0 | 46.0 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 56 | $74.72 | 2.2% | 0 | 83.0 | 0.00× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Battle-Scarred) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-battle-scarred) | 1 in 51 | $73.65 | 2.4% | 0 | 92.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-well-worn) | 1 in 76 | $71.51 | 1.5% | 0 | 61.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 61 | $65.84 | 1.8% | 0 | 76.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 79 | $65.76 | 1.4% | 0 | 59.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $65.71 | 1.1% | 0 | 46.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 98 | $65.16 | 1.1% | 0 | 47.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 119 | $64.43 | 0.9% | 0 | 39.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 70 | $60.86 | 1.4% | 0 | 66.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-well-worn) | 1 in 106 | $59.65 | 0.9% | 0 | 44.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-forest-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 66 | $57.82 | 1.4% | 0 | 71.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-battle-scarred) | 1 in 99 | $56.52 | 0.9% | 0 | 47.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Giraffe (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-giraffe-field-tested) | 1 in 83 | $52.29 | 1.0% | 0 | 56.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Giraffe (Well-Worn) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-giraffe-well-worn) | 1 in 82 | $51.67 | 1.0% | 0 | 57.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 91 | $51.04 | 0.9% | 0 | 51.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-well-worn) | 1 in 91 | $50.93 | 0.9% | 0 | 51.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Giraffe (Battle-Scarred) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-giraffe-battle-scarred) | 1 in 79 | $50.62 | 1.0% | 0 | 59.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 85 | $48.79 | 0.9% | 0 | 54.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 83 | $47.63 | 0.9% | 0 | 56.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 152 | $45.59 | 0.5% | 0 | 31.0 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-factory-new) | 1 in 56 | $31.82 | 0.9% | 0 | 83.5 | 0.00× |
| [Souvenir XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-elegant-vines-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $23.06 | 2.3% | 313 | 290.8 | 1.08× |
| [P90 \| Death Grip (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-grip-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $18.33 | 2.0% | 309 | 319.0 | 0.97× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $15.36 | 1.2% | 0 | 230.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 32 | $14.82 | 0.8% | 0 | 148.7 | 0.00× |
| [M249 \| Contrast Spray (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-contrast-spray-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $14.69 | 1.8% | 327 | 348.5 | 0.94× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-well-worn) | 1 in 31 | $14.67 | 0.8% | 0 | 151.1 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Rising Skull (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-rising-skull-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $13.56 | 1.7% | 346 | 359.8 | 0.96× |
| [Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $9.85 | 1.4% | 435 | 401.5 | 1.08× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/glowing-stone`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [SPARKY](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/SPARKY) $70.00 $2,394 34.20x 2026-11-06 20:49 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $70.00 $2,394 34.20x 2026-11-05 20:37 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $70.00 $2,156 30.80x 2026-11-05 15:01 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $70.00 $2,133 30.47x 2026-11-06 21:15 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $70.00 $2,093 29.91x 2026-11-03 19:25 UTC

[★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $70.00 $1,704 24.34x 2026-11-05 09:12 UTC

[★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $70.00 $1,662 23.74x 2026-11-09 23:34 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [C1N0](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/C1N0) $70.00 $525 7.50x 2026-11-04 00:10 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $70.00 $524 7.49x 2026-11-03 13:45 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $70.00 $524 7.49x 2026-11-03 03:06 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=glowing-stone)

[★ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web) Hidden $70.00 $86.38 1.23x 2026-11-11 16:02 UTC

[Tec-9 | Safety Net (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-factory-new) Hidden $70.00 $9.85 0.14x 2026-11-11 16:02 UTC

[★ Hand Wraps | Overprint gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint) Hidden $70.00 $97.81 1.40x 2026-11-11 16:02 UTC

[M4A1-S | Decimator weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator) [ziomek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/ziomek) $70.00 $17.63 0.25x 2026-11-11 16:02 UTC

[Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-elegant-vines-minimal-wear) Hidden $70.00 $23.06 0.33x 2026-11-11 16:02 UTC

[M249 | Contrast Spray (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-contrast-spray-factory-new) Hidden $70.00 $14.69 0.21x 2026-11-11 16:02 UTC

[M4A1-S | Decimator weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator) Hidden $70.00 $17.63 0.25x 2026-11-11 16:02 UTC

[Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-elegant-vines-minimal-wear) [ziomek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/ziomek) $70.00 $23.06 0.33x 2026-11-11 16:02 UTC

[M4A1-S | Player Two weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two) Hidden $70.00 $83.85 1.20x 2026-11-11 16:02 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Fade gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade) Hidden $70.00 $183 2.61x 2026-11-11 16:02 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $70.00 | 87.50% | 54 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $70.00 | 87.46% | 54 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $70.00 | 87.81% | 54 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $70.00 | 87.38% | 54 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $70.00 | 87.71% | 54 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $70.00 | 87.51% | 54 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $70.00 | 87.39% | 54 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $70.00 | 87.56% | 54 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $70.00 | 87.57% | 54 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $70.00 | 87.56% | 54 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $70.00 | 87.56% | 54 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $70.00 | 87.27% | 54 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $70.00 | 87.58% | 54 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $70.00 | 87.27% | 54 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $70.00 | 87.79% | 54 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $70.00 | 87.24% | 54 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $70.00 | 87.79% | 54 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $70.00 | 87.24% | 54 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $70.00 | 87.74% | 54 |
| 3 Nov, 15:55 UTC | $70.00 | 87.90% | 54 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $70.00 | 87.37% | 54 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 26.6% gold 2.9% legendary 0.0% sunny 7.3% epic 2.0% extraordinary 8.1% Covert 1.6% #ffd700 1.0% classified 3.8% rare 1.8% violet 20.7% #d32ce6 4.9% gray 7.4% pink 3.2% blue 8.6% best hit $2,394 (34.20x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt