---
title: "GOLDERRA JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "GOLDERRA JOKER ($299.33) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 56 items with odds, observed 83.73% over 401 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/golderra-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T23:48Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [GOLDERRA JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/golderra-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · GOLDERRA JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/golderra-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/golderra-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/golderra-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/golderra-joker?window=all)

Price · $299.33

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $261.92 from 56 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 83.73% · 401 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 16.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 27 openings · below min

7 days · 80.48% ±20.29 156 openings

30 days · 83.73% ±12.83 401 openings

since tracking started · 83.73% ±12.83 401 openings

54.5% 103.5% 152.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/golderra-joker?window=24h) | 27 | 103.50% ±48.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/golderra-joker?window=7d) | 156 | 80.48% ±20.3 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/golderra-joker) | 401 | 83.73% ±12.8 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/golderra-joker?window=all) | 401 | 83.73% ±12.8 | −0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 56 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 410 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1,604 | 30.6% | 26 | 20.5 | 1.27× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $814 | 5.2% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-well-worn) | 1 in 60 | $764 | 4.9% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 60 | $709 | 4.5% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $694 | 3.3% | 0 | 5.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $658 | 12.6% | 12 | 20.5 | 0.59× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $650 | 3.1% | 0 | 5.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $647 | 3.1% | 0 | 5.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-battle-scarred) | 1 in 80 | $630 | 3.0% | 0 | 5.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $383 | 1.8% | 0 | 5.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $325 | 3.1% | 0 | 10.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $314 | 3.0% | 0 | 10.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $258 | 4.9% | 15 | 20.5 | 0.73× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Battle-Scarred) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $253 | 2.4% | 0 | 10.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Battle-Scarred) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $222 | 2.1% | 0 | 10.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $218 | 1.0% | 0 | 5.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $168 | 0.8% | 0 | 5.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $156 | 0.7% | 0 | 5.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 80 | $151 | 0.7% | 0 | 5.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $148 | 0.7% | 0 | 5.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $147 | 0.7% | 0 | 5.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-battle-scarred) | 1 in 80 | $133 | 0.6% | 0 | 5.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) | 1 in 80 | $128 | 0.6% | 0 | 5.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $126 | 0.6% | 0 | 5.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $126 | 0.6% | 0 | 5.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $123 | 0.6% | 0 | 5.1 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Serum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $59.73 | 1.1% | 24 | 20.5 | 1.17× |
| [P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $55.78 | 1.1% | 22 | 20.5 | 1.07× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-well-worn) | 1 in 60 | $50.98 | 0.3% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $49.66 | 0.3% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $49.05 | 0.3% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-battle-scarred) | 1 in 60 | $46.96 | 0.3% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-well-worn) | 1 in 60 | $46.07 | 0.3% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-battle-scarred) | 1 in 60 | $41.04 | 0.3% | 0 | 6.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $16.43 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $13.62 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $9.90 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $7.87 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.1 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $6.91 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.1 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $6.76 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $5.40 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $5.39 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $5.37 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $5.09 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $5.08 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.1 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $5.02 | 0.0% | 0 | 10.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $4.87 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.1 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $4.61 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.1 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $4.61 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.1 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-battle-scarred) | 1 in 80 | $4.54 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $4.21 | 0.0% | 0 | 10.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $4.19 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.1 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $3.98 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.1 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-battle-scarred) | 1 in 80 | $3.85 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.1 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $3.08 | 0.0% | 0 | 10.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $1.01 | 0.0% | 0 | 10.3 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/golderra-joker`, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $314 $1,726 5.51x 2026-11-02 21:55 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $311 $1,692 5.44x 2026-11-02 23:54 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $311 $1,692 5.44x 2026-11-02 23:51 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) [armataPowPow skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/armataPowPow%20skins.army) $309 $1,671 5.40x 2026-11-04 22:41 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $309 $1,671 5.40x 2026-11-04 16:17 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) [Exa](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Exa) $309 $1,671 5.40x 2026-11-04 16:17 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) [Death13](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Death13) $309 $1,671 5.40x 2026-11-04 08:35 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) [Death13](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Death13) $309 $1,671 5.40x 2026-11-04 08:32 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $309 $1,671 5.40x 2026-11-04 08:22 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $309 $1,671 5.40x 2026-11-04 08:22 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=golderra-joker)

[USP-S | Serum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-minimal-wear) Hidden $299 $59.73 0.20x 2026-11-11 22:03 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water) Hidden $299 $655 2.19x 2026-11-11 22:03 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot) Hidden $299 $274 0.91x 2026-11-11 22:03 UTC

[M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) [grochalek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/grochalek) $299 $658 2.20x 2026-11-11 22:03 UTC

[P90 | Cold Blooded (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-factory-new) Hidden $299 $55.78 0.19x 2026-11-11 21:50 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Code Red weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red) Hidden $299 $49.20 0.16x 2026-11-11 21:50 UTC

[M4A4 | Etch Lord weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord) [grochalek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/grochalek) $299 $2.61 0.01x 2026-11-11 21:50 UTC

[Glock-18 | Vogue weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue) Hidden $299 $5.13 0.02x 2026-11-11 21:50 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water) Hidden $299 $655 2.19x 2026-11-11 21:50 UTC

[FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys) [grochalek](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/grochalek) $299 $45.39 0.15x 2026-11-11 21:50 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $299 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $302 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $302 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $303 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $303 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $303 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $303 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $306 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $303 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $304 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $306 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $308 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $309 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $314 | 87.50% | 56 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 24.6% covert 32.5% gold 2.5% extraordinary 5.0% rare 2.5% sunny 2.5% pink 8.7% Legendary 6.5% Classified 3.0% #d32ee6 2.3% violet 7.5% Mythical 2.5% best hit $1,726 (5.51x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt