---
title: "GOLDERRA case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "GOLDERRA ($26.00) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 56 items with odds, observed 84.42% over 6,111 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/golderra
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:37Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [GOLDERRA](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/golderra)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · GOLDERRA

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/golderra?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/golderra?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/golderra) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/golderra?window=all)

Price · $26.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $22.75 from 56 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.42% · 6,111 openings, odds method

Variance · 6.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 97.43% ±20.22 671 openings

7 days · 88.81% ±8.91 3,581 openings

30 days · 84.42% ±6.36 6,111 openings

since tracking started · 84.42% ±6.36 6,111 openings

76.5% 97.5% 118.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/golderra?window=24h) | 671 | 97.43% ±20.2 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/golderra?window=7d) | 3,581 | 88.81% ±8.91 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/golderra) | 6,111 | 84.42% ±6.36 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/golderra?window=all) | 6,111 | 84.42% ±6.36 | −1.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 56 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,241 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,592 | 3.5% | 7 | 3.1 | 2.24× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $826 | 1.1% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-well-worn) | 1 in 3,333 | $787 | 1.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $720 | 0.9% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,500 | $719 | 1.3% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-well-worn) | 1 in 3,333 | $680 | 0.9% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $670 | 0.9% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 833 | $662 | 3.5% | 4 | 7.5 | 0.53× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,333 | $658 | 0.9% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $410 | 0.4% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $329 | 1.4% | 0 | 6.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-well-worn) | 1 in 909 | $315 | 1.5% | 0 | 6.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 323 | $258 | 3.5% | 18 | 19.3 | 0.93× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Battle-Scarred) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-battle-scarred) | 1 in 526 | $244 | 2.0% | 0 | 11.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Battle-Scarred) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-battle-scarred) | 1 in 476 | $228 | 2.1% | 0 | 13.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 1,250 | $217 | 0.8% | 0 | 5.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-well-worn) | 1 in 714 | $166 | 1.0% | 0 | 8.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 833 | $156 | 0.8% | 0 | 7.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 714 | $148 | 0.9% | 0 | 8.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 714 | $146 | 0.9% | 0 | 8.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 667 | $139 | 0.9% | 0 | 9.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-minimal-wear) | 1 in 714 | $137 | 0.8% | 0 | 8.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 667 | $131 | 0.9% | 0 | 9.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-battle-scarred) | 1 in 625 | $126 | 0.9% | 0 | 10.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-well-worn) | 1 in 588 | $122 | 0.9% | 0 | 10.6 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) | 1 in 385 | $121 | 1.4% | 0 | 16.2 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Serum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $59.73 | 12.6% | 229 | 299.6 | 0.76× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $57.05 | 4.0% | 0 | 99.9 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $56.24 | 12.6% | 281 | 318.3 | 0.88× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-battle-scarred) | 1 in 56 | $54.34 | 4.2% | 0 | 110.5 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-well-worn) | 1 in 53 | $52.36 | 4.4% | 0 | 118.6 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-field-tested) | 1 in 56 | $49.23 | 3.8% | 0 | 110.5 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $46.07 | 4.1% | 0 | 126.1 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-battle-scarred) | 1 in 37 | $39.94 | 4.7% | 0 | 167.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-factory-new) | 1 in 61 | $16.28 | 1.2% | 0 | 101.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 147 | $13.57 | 0.4% | 0 | 42.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 73 | $8.90 | 0.5% | 0 | 85.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 69 | $7.97 | 0.5% | 0 | 89.9 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 61 | $6.78 | 0.5% | 0 | 102.4 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 53 | $6.73 | 0.6% | 0 | 118.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 41 | $5.88 | 0.6% | 0 | 152.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $5.56 | 0.6% | 0 | 165.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 37 | $5.12 | 0.6% | 0 | 166.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 37 | $5.10 | 0.6% | 0 | 167.9 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-well-worn) | 1 in 35 | $4.99 | 0.6% | 0 | 179.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 32 | $4.94 | 0.7% | 0 | 194.7 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-battle-scarred) | 1 in 34 | $4.90 | 0.6% | 0 | 184.1 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $4.87 | 0.9% | 0 | 270.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $4.61 | 0.6% | 0 | 192.8 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $4.45 | 0.7% | 0 | 210.3 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $4.21 | 0.6% | 0 | 199.7 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $4.02 | 0.6% | 0 | 212.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $3.96 | 0.6% | 0 | 217.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $3.95 | 0.4% | 0 | 157.9 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $3.06 | 1.1% | 0 | 519.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-minimal-wear) | 15.6% | $1.03 | 0.7% | 0 | 972.3 | 0.00× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/golderra`, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) [sydneyy olise](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/sydneyy%20olise) $26.00 $1,644 63.22x 2026-11-04 17:21 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $26.00 $1,628 62.61x 2026-11-09 15:56 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) [konczyk skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/konczyk%20skins.army) $26.00 $1,622 62.38x 2026-11-10 04:00 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) [TPK.](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/TPK.) $26.00 $1,620 62.31x 2026-11-07 21:18 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) [Exa](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Exa) $26.00 $1,620 62.31x 2026-11-07 21:17 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) [KrisZach](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/KrisZach) $26.00 $1,620 62.31x 2026-11-07 16:47 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) [XITO](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/XITO) $26.00 $1,616 62.14x 2026-11-10 23:25 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic) Hidden $26.00 $776 29.84x 2026-11-11 00:34 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic) Hidden $26.00 $775 29.81x 2026-11-07 10:02 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic) Hidden $26.00 $772 29.67x 2026-11-04 18:16 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=golderra)

[Desert Eagle | Code Red weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red) Hidden $26.00 $54.45 2.09x 2026-11-11 17:33 UTC

[FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys) Hidden $26.00 $44.40 1.71x 2026-11-11 17:33 UTC

[M4A1-S | Black Lotus weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus) [jose](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/jose) $26.00 $5.90 0.23x 2026-11-11 17:33 UTC

[USP-S | Jawbreaker weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker) Hidden $26.00 $4.44 0.17x 2026-11-11 17:32 UTC

[USP-S | Jawbreaker weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker) [BrumBasse](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/BrumBasse) $26.00 $4.44 0.17x 2026-11-11 17:32 UTC

[M4A1-S | Black Lotus weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus) Hidden $26.00 $5.90 0.23x 2026-11-11 17:28 UTC

[M4A1-S | Black Lotus weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus) Hidden $26.00 $5.90 0.23x 2026-11-11 17:28 UTC

[M4A4 | Etch Lord weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord) Hidden $26.00 $1.44 0.06x 2026-11-11 17:28 UTC

[USP-S | Serum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-minimal-wear) [SweetyPia](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/SweetyPia) $26.00 $59.73 2.30x 2026-11-11 17:28 UTC

[AK-47 | The Empress weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress) [BrumBasse](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/BrumBasse) $26.00 $129 4.95x 2026-11-11 17:24 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $26.00 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $26.00 | 88.23% | 56 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $26.00 | 87.67% | 56 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $26.00 | 87.98% | 56 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $26.00 | 87.62% | 56 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $26.00 | 87.98% | 56 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $26.00 | 87.74% | 56 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $26.00 | 87.78% | 56 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $26.00 | 87.47% | 56 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $26.00 | 87.42% | 56 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $26.00 | 87.55% | 56 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $26.00 | 87.04% | 56 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $26.00 | 87.84% | 56 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $26.00 | 87.35% | 56 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $26.00 | 87.26% | 56 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $26.00 | 87.79% | 56 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $26.00 | 87.35% | 56 |
| 3 Nov, 09:33 UTC | $26.00 | 87.19% | 56 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $26.00 | 87.63% | 56 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 18.0% covert 7.4% gold 0.1% extraordinary 0.2% rare 0.2% sunny 0.2% pink 16.5% Legendary 14.0% Classified 6.6% #d32ee6 6.1% violet 22.4% Mythical 8.3% best hit $1,644 (63.22x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt