---
title: "GUARD JOKER case on Casehug: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "GUARD JOKER ($88.45) on Casehug, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 91 items with odds, observed 89.41% over 825 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/guard-joker
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:59Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) / [GUARD JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/guard-joker)

# [Casehug](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/casehug) · GUARD JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/guard-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/guard-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/guard-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/guard-joker?window=all)

Price · $88.45

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $77.39 from 91 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.41% · 825 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 11.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 71.16% ±24.54 122 openings

7 days · 87.32% ±10.35 687 openings

30 days · 89.41% ±9.42 825 openings

since tracking started · 89.41% ±9.42 825 openings

46.0% 72.8% 99.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/guard-joker?window=24h) | 122 | 71.16% ±24.5 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/guard-joker?window=7d) | 687 | 87.32% ±10.3 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/guard-joker) | 825 | 89.41% ±9.42 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/casehug/guard-joker?window=all) | 825 | 89.41% ±9.42 | +0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 91 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,006 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 91 | $697 | 9.9% | 11 | 11.0 | 1.00× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $580 | 8.2% | 15 | 11.0 | 1.36× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 91 | $446 | 6.3% | 9 | 11.0 | 0.81× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $426 | 6.0% | 18 | 11.0 | 1.63× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 91 | $340 | 4.8% | 9 | 11.0 | 0.81× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $277 | 3.9% | 14 | 11.0 | 1.27× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $229 | 3.2% | 9 | 11.0 | 0.81× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $200 | 2.8% | 13 | 11.0 | 1.18× |
| [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $196 | 2.8% | 10 | 11.0 | 0.91× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $196 | 2.8% | 6 | 11.1 | 0.54× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 91 | $195 | 2.8% | 8 | 11.1 | 0.72× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 91 | $172 | 2.4% | 14 | 11.1 | 1.27× |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 91 | $164 | 2.3% | 8 | 11.1 | 0.72× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $150 | 2.1% | 8 | 11.1 | 0.72× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $146 | 2.1% | 10 | 11.1 | 0.90× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 91 | $125 | 1.8% | 16 | 11.1 | 1.45× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $119 | 1.7% | 13 | 11.1 | 1.18× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Lt. Commander (Field-Tested) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-lt-commander-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $116 | 1.6% | 9 | 11.1 | 0.81× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $114 | 1.6% | 9 | 11.1 | 0.81× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 91 | $111 | 1.6% | 16 | 11.1 | 1.45× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $108 | 1.5% | 13 | 11.1 | 1.18× |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $102 | 1.5% | 10 | 11.1 | 0.90× |
| [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $93.57 | 1.3% | 7 | 11.1 | 0.63× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $90.51 | 1.3% | 10 | 11.1 | 0.90× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $87.71 | 1.2% | 8 | 11.1 | 0.72× |
| [MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $79.28 | 1.1% | 11 | 11.1 | 0.99× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $75.96 | 1.1% | 3 | 11.1 | 0.27× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $75.90 | 1.1% | 12 | 11.1 | 1.09× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $74.10 | 1.1% | 10 | 11.1 | 0.90× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $67.12 | 1.0% | 11 | 11.1 | 0.99× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $66.23 | 0.9% | 14 | 11.1 | 1.27× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $63.82 | 0.9% | 14 | 11.1 | 1.27× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $60.22 | 0.9% | 11 | 11.1 | 0.99× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $58.20 | 0.8% | 15 | 11.1 | 1.36× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $55.72 | 0.8% | 15 | 11.1 | 1.36× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $54.89 | 0.8% | 8 | 11.1 | 0.72× |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $52.17 | 0.7% | 17 | 11.1 | 1.54× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $47.11 | 0.7% | 14 | 11.1 | 1.27× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $45.37 | 0.6% | 10 | 11.1 | 0.90× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $41.17 | 0.6% | 9 | 11.1 | 0.81× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $41.03 | 0.6% | 11 | 11.1 | 0.99× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $40.79 | 0.6% | 16 | 11.1 | 1.45× |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-mangrove-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $38.37 | 0.5% | 11 | 11.1 | 0.99× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $38.14 | 0.5% | 12 | 11.1 | 1.09× |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $38.08 | 0.5% | 12 | 11.1 | 1.09× |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $37.36 | 0.5% | 13 | 11.1 | 1.18× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-racing-green-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $34.78 | 0.5% | 5 | 11.1 | 0.45× |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $27.19 | 0.4% | 15 | 11.1 | 1.36× |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $26.89 | 0.4% | 16 | 11.1 | 1.45× |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $24.24 | 0.3% | 13 | 11.1 | 1.18× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $22.44 | 0.3% | 9 | 11.1 | 0.81× |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-battle-scarred) | 1 in 91 | $19.97 | 0.3% | 12 | 11.1 | 1.09× |
| [P2000 \| Dispatch (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-dispatch-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $15.77 | 0.2% | 9 | 11.1 | 0.81× |
| [AUG \| Momentum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $15.07 | 0.2% | 15 | 11.1 | 1.36× |
| [M4A4 \| Polysoup (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-polysoup-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $14.84 | 0.2% | 12 | 11.1 | 1.09× |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $14.44 | 0.2% | 15 | 11.1 | 1.36× |
| [MP9 \| Airlock (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $14.35 | 0.2% | 12 | 11.1 | 1.09× |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $13.37 | 0.2% | 9 | 11.1 | 0.81× |
| [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 91 | $13.27 | 0.2% | 9 | 11.1 | 0.81× |
| [UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $11.05 | 0.2% | 8 | 11.1 | 0.72× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $8.86 | 0.1% | 10 | 11.1 | 0.90× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $8.74 | 0.1% | 13 | 11.1 | 1.18× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 91 | $8.68 | 0.1% | 8 | 11.1 | 0.72× |
| [AWP \| POP AWP (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $8.68 | 0.1% | 8 | 11.1 | 0.72× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $7.97 | 0.1% | 12 | 11.1 | 1.09× |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $6.64 | 0.1% | 11 | 11.1 | 0.99× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $6.56 | 0.1% | 13 | 11.1 | 1.18× |
| [UMP-45 \| Momentum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $6.24 | 0.1% | 8 | 11.1 | 0.72× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $6.07 | 0.1% | 14 | 11.1 | 1.27× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $5.56 | 0.1% | 8 | 11.1 | 0.72× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $5.40 | 0.1% | 10 | 11.1 | 0.90× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $5.17 | 0.1% | 8 | 11.1 | 0.72× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $4.88 | 0.1% | 10 | 11.1 | 0.90× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $4.73 | 0.1% | 14 | 11.1 | 1.27× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $4.67 | 0.1% | 5 | 11.1 | 0.45× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $4.45 | 0.1% | 8 | 11.1 | 0.72× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $4.21 | 0.1% | 7 | 11.1 | 0.63× |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $4.13 | 0.1% | 18 | 11.1 | 1.63× |
| [AUG \| Stymphalian (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $4.02 | 0.1% | 8 | 11.1 | 0.72× |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $3.66 | 0.1% | 12 | 11.1 | 1.09× |
| [MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $3.06 | 0.0% | 10 | 11.1 | 0.90× |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $2.92 | 0.0% | 8 | 11.1 | 0.72× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $2.66 | 0.0% | 14 | 11.1 | 1.27× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $2.52 | 0.0% | 5 | 11.1 | 0.45× |
| [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $2.45 | 0.0% | 9 | 11.1 | 0.81× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Fubar (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-fubar-well-worn) | 1 in 91 | $2.33 | 0.0% | 9 | 11.1 | 0.81× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Sweet Little Angels (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-sweet-little-angels-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $2.05 | 0.0% | 14 | 11.1 | 1.27× |
| [Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 91 | $1.99 | 0.0% | 10 | 11.1 | 0.90× |
| [MP7 \| Prey (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-prey-factory-new) | 1 in 91 | $1.99 | 0.0% | 13 | 11.1 | 1.18× |
| [Sticker \| Winding Scorch (Foil) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-winding-scorch-foil) | 1 in 91 | $1.91 | 0.0% | 13 | 11.1 | 1.18× |
| [Sticker \| Cedar Creek (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cedar-creek-holo) | 1 in 91 | $1.58 | 0.0% | 15 | 11.1 | 1.36× |

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `casehug:cases/guard-joker`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $90.74 $712 7.85x 2026-11-02 22:55 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $89.70 $704 7.85x 2026-11-07 09:12 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $89.70 $704 7.85x 2026-11-07 08:25 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [M9/BF GW Code : zurys](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/M9%2FBF%20GW%20Code%20%3A%20zurys) $89.69 $704 7.85x 2026-11-05 18:09 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $88.35 $702 7.95x 2026-11-09 21:34 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [I can\_#039;t shootingCS2.MEskins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/I%20can_%23039%3Bt%20shootingCS2.MEskins.army) $88.35 $702 7.95x 2026-11-09 21:07 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $88.99 $702 7.89x 2026-11-10 21:58 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $89.02 $699 7.86x 2026-11-08 08:45 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [M9/BF GW Code : zurys](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/M9%2FBF%20GW%20Code%20%3A%20zurys) $90.03 $681 7.57x 2026-11-04 13:11 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [Naturalson](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Naturalson) $90.03 $681 7.57x 2026-11-04 11:09 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=casehug&case=guard-joker)

[SG 553 | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-minimal-wear) Hidden $88.45 $8.74 0.10x 2026-11-11 12:25 UTC

[AK-47 | Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) Hidden $88.45 $74.10 0.84x 2026-11-11 12:25 UTC

[AK-47 | Safety Net (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-minimal-wear) Hidden $88.45 $4.73 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:25 UTC

[AWP | POP AWP (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-minimal-wear) [$Janin$](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/%24Janin%24) $88.45 $8.68 0.10x 2026-11-11 12:25 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Starcade (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-field-tested) [MİLESON](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/M%C4%B0LESON) $88.45 $41.17 0.47x 2026-11-11 11:39 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) [MİLESON](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/M%C4%B0LESON) $88.45 $54.89 0.62x 2026-11-11 11:39 UTC

[★ Kukri Knife | Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-scorched-field-tested) Hidden $88.45 $52.17 0.59x 2026-11-11 11:30 UTC

[M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) Hidden $88.45 $7.97 0.09x 2026-11-11 11:30 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [ChrasťoušekS](https://gambatracker.com/players/casehug/Chras%C5%A5ou%C5%A1ekS) $88.45 $195 2.20x 2026-11-11 11:30 UTC

[AK-47 | Head Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-field-tested) Hidden $88.45 $37.36 0.42x 2026-11-11 11:16 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $88.45 | 87.50% | 91 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $88.99 | 87.50% | 91 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $88.35 | 87.50% | 91 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $89.34 | 87.50% | 91 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $89.70 | 87.50% | 91 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $89.02 | 87.50% | 91 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $89.85 | 87.50% | 91 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $89.70 | 87.50% | 91 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $89.44 | 87.50% | 91 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $89.85 | 87.50% | 91 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $89.69 | 87.50% | 91 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $89.80 | 87.50% | 91 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $90.03 | 87.50% | 91 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed epic 1.1% covert 25.3% extraordinary 5.5% Ancient 8.8% rare 5.5% Immortal 3.3% sunny 1.1% red 2.2% pink 4.4% Legendary 12.1% classified 8.8% Rare 1.1% uncommon 3.3% #d32ee6 1.1% restricted 4.4% violet 2.2% Classified 1.1% Mythical 1.1% blue 2.2% #8847ff 1.1% #4b69ff 1.1% mil spec 1.1% gray 1.1% #d32ce6 1.1% best hit $712 (7.85x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt